2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread

Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

[Free Vulcan]

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.

[david1313]

Gingrich/Santorum 2012

I could shallow hard and take. Rubio would be a better choice.

Santorum/Gingrich 2012

That would be a losing ticket I am afraid.

[ConfidentConservative]

Father In Heaven,

Be with Iowa’s Voter’s today, touch their hearts and lead them to YOUR choice for our next leader. Place YOUR Angels about each voting place and protect voters, And Lord Cause confusion in the minds of those who desire to cheat and steal votes from the true votes. In the Name Of Jesus we Pray.

[skaterboy]

newt is crying way too much..if he is belly aching like this against romney then what in november as obama drops a billion on him?...get some guts or get out the way...i guess we see why he quit congress..gutless crybaby

[skaterboy]

small gov in this race? who? where? if you say newt then you dont know what small gov means

[napscoordinator]

I cannot agree with you more. He is a jokester for sure. Did you see how he blamed some of his HIRED campaign people on why he didn’t get on the Virginia Ballot. This guy sure is around for humor. I feel sorry for his supporters. Go Sanotrum! The adult in the room!

[ConfidentConservative]

OHhhh Did you change your mind and decide not to vote for Newt Gingrich or have you been against him all along?

Please, let’s pray for a peaceful outcome in Iowa.

[TheOldLady]

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[ConfidentConservative]

Please, let’s pray for Iowa and their voters.

[FewsOrange]

What is the timelime for this evening? Is there a hard deadline for the caucuses to finish or any time when the first results are likely to emerge?

[napscoordinator]

Please, let’s pray for Iowa and their voters.

Absolutely. God is already answering my prayers for good weather. It will be warming up to the 40’s by the time the caucus begins (which for them I guess is like Summer. lol)

[Crichton]

I'll stick with my prediction from Sunday night - cautiously going out on a limb:

Santorum 26
Romney 25
Paul 18
Perry 13
Newt 12
Bachmann 5
Huntsman 1 

[TexasFreeper2009]

and this great disciplined speaker you speak of is who? surely not Iran is no threat, 9-11 is our fault Paul surely not HPV made me retarded, I AM a serious candidate Bachmann surely not Mr. 53 seconds, can’t string together two sentences Perry surely not Mr. hey, moderator that’s not fair, when am I going to get a chance to talk too Santorum so who are we talking about?

[emax]

What are you basing that on ? And the NDAA 2012 doesnt really count -it does not give the govt any new powers with reard to detaining US citizens ?

[pgkdan]

That’s a pipe dream Naps. Ain’t gonna happen. Perry will finish ahead of Santorum. We’re looking at a 2 man race going forward. Perry vs Romney.

[magritte]

Prediction thread? Okay, here goes:

Romney 25
Paul 20
Perry 18
Newt 14
Santorum 14
Bachmann 5
Huntsman 1

[TomGuy]

newt is crying way too much..if he is belly aching like this against romney then what in november as obama drops a billion on him?...get some guts or get out the way...i guess we see why he quit congress..gutless crybaby

Review Gingrich's behavior when Clinton made him sit at the back of the plane.

This current behavior is typical Gingrich -- sadly.

[joe fonebone]

secretary of defence... dick chaney...secretary of state.. sarah palin... watch libs heads explode

[SamAdams76]

If you are conservative, a vote for Santorum is a wasted vote, since he cannot communicate the conservative message as well as Newt Gingrich. Remember, millions of Americans would pay money to see the political equivalent of the “Ali-Frazier fight” in a debate between Newt Gingrich and Barack Obama.

This isn't the World Wide Wrestling Federation here, we are talking about finding a competent and conservative leader for our nation. I couldn't care less about the entertainment factor of the upcoming debates. In my opinion, Newt would win the battle (debates) but likely lose the war (general election).

By contrast, I think Santorum handled himself very well during the past debates and will likewise do well in debates against Obama and will bring the conservative base to the polls in November to hand Obama the stinging defeat that he deserves.

Santorum was not my first choice in this contest but I feel comfortable getting behind him should he prevail as our nominee. Like Romney, he's a decent guy but unlike Romney, he's a real conservative.

[Future Useless Eater]

Remember, millions of Americans would pay money to see the political equivalent of the “Ali-Frazier fight” in a debate between Newt Gingrich and Barack Obama. In contrast, a debate between Santorum and Obama or between Romney and Obama would attract far less attention.

Good point! If the Gingrich/Obama debate was ONLY on Pay-per-view, I'd pay $100 to see it!

Best in debate against Obama?

[Jane Long]

Amen!

Thanks for the thread and updates, FV!