2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread

Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

[Free Vulcan]

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.

[onyx]

Right. We’ll know by Saturday.

[greeneyes]

Kiss of death.

[antceecee]

Love to see a candidate for POTUS thank God and his wife! Just love it... makes me “feel for cry” as my Grandfather use to say.

[gswilder]

Amazing how close, regardless of who you are rooting for.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Perry’s showing in Iowa plus his national numbers may disqualify him from the debate.

[bigbob]

Gotta say, one of the big winners tonight has to be Pizza Ranch! Lots of free plugs...

[STARWISE]

So repugnant. Total ‘establishment’ player, blatant anti-conservative moderate, double dealing, two faced creep. Want the other cheeks, too, John?

[Palladin]

Well I did cry as Rick spoke about his little daughter Bella. It was a beautiful prolife statement.

Rick walks the walk.

It will be a pleasure to vote for a REAL Catholic in November.

[Dante3]

lol. Have to disagree somewhat. I believe McCain’s endorsement will cost Romney at least a few voes.

[SamAdams76]

Santorum just announced that he is coming to New Hampshire tomorrow. So he will not be bypassing NH to go to South Carolina. You can bet that Newt and Santorum will be tag-teaming Mitt Romney for the next 7 days. Right in my backyard!

[onyx]

I’m not in his camp, but that’s not to say that I don’t like him or that I don’t wish him well!

[publana]

If not Newt, I was going to support Perry, weak debater and all. I couldn't see anyone else.

Same here. I literally feel sick to my stomach thinking of Perry gone and most of the others still in the running.

[CedarDave]

Perry’s showing in Iowa plus his national numbers may disqualify him from the debate.

Perry got 11% and Bachmann has dropped back to 5%; she should definitely be disqualified from it.

[jpsb]

since half of all voters are female Newt got 13% of the female vote and 13% of the male vote.

[Deo volente]

Romney on now...going to turn off the set.

[parksstp]

Hardin, Harrison, Appanoose still have good totals for Santorum.

Some suburb small amounts still out in the East. Too close to call with 100% in

Have to wait for the pick-up from the RNC to show up.

[antceecee]

Have you? He said what I needed to hear. What is wrong with you? Your first post to me made no sense at all and your commentary on candidate speeches leaves much to be desired. Do you need a tingle up your leg? Maybe you need to to with Chrissie Matthews and vote for his candidate - POTUS and TOTUS.

[Windflier]

Thanks, antceecee. Have a good night!

[TheCornerOffice]

Assuming half of the 13% were a combination of a 50-50 split. Half of his voters were male and half were female. That would be 6.5% Female and 6.5% male for a total of 13%.

You're thinking is a little off on this. Assuming that the entire number of votes was 50-50 male-female, and assuming that Newt got equal numbers of male and female, then the 13% that Newt got would represent 13% of all the males who voted and 13% of all the females who voted.

You seem to be saying that he got only 6.5% of all the females who voted (and only 6.5% of all the males who voted) and that's just not correct.

[bigbob]

Mitt’s giving his stump speech...

I like his wife much better than him.