The Hot New Theory About What Happened To The US Economy (Everything Is Okay Now)

TBI ^ | 10-8-2011 | Joe Weisenthal

[blam]

The Hot New Theory About What Happened To The US Economy

Joe Weisenthal
Oct. 8, 2011, 6:27 AM

Something weird is happening with the economic data in September: It's okay!

Datapoint after datapoint screams: The economy is mediocre, but it's not collapsing.

For example...

* The September jobs report was a lot better than the August jobs report.

* Rail traffic is growing.

* Car sales were downright HOT in September.

* Retail sales? Check.

* Construction spending was fine too.

There was certainly some weak data, as things are not amazing, but the numbers haven't been heart-stopping the way some of the August numbers were (like that goose-egg jobs report, which later got revised higher).

So what's going on?

One theory that's clearly pretty hot: The economy this summer suffered a confidence shock with the debt ceiling crisis, causing an artificial slowdown.

There's a basis for this. A poll showed that the whole fiasco hit consumer confidence in the same way as Katrina and 9/11 did.

This table from Calculated Risk shows what, historically, how long it's taken to rebound from external shocks in consumer confidence.

Event Driven Declines in Consumer Sentiment

(Go to the site to view the chart)

So this is the hot new meme: The economy is okay, but we had a damaging freakout at an inopportune time but now we're recovering (knock on wood, anyway).

(snip)

[blam]

I've been saying, everything is okay.

Vote For Obama.

[blam]

The most recent data (Yesterday) from the reputable ECRI says otherwise:

ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Declines Further ("You Haven't Seen Anything Yet")

[radioone]

This article must have been written by graduates of the “Debbie Wasserman-Schultz College of Economics”.

[Red Badger]

The economy is fine! There is no recession! We have everything under control!...........

[mewzilla]

This interesting, too......

Baltic Dry Index Reaches 2011 High as Panamax Ship Rents Gain

...but, as usual, the devil is in the details.

[Perdogg]

I have never heard of returning striking workers being added to the employment numbers to fluff it. Is this something new?

[PowderMonkey]

LOL! I’ve seen people routinely eviscerated at staff meetings for using hollow and meaningless descriptors like “growing”, “HOT”, “fine” and “check” in their management briefings.

[umgud]

For a long time, I actually hoped the economy would improve in spite of Obama, but I guess we all know how that hope crap really works.

I’m guessing the economy will start turning around late next year when it becomes obvious we’ll have both houses and the presidency.

[mewzilla]

If I may, from the BLS....

Current Employment Statistics FAQs

[Lazamataz]

LOL! I’ve seen people routinely eviscerated at staff meetings for using hollow and meaningless descriptors like “growing”, “HOT”, “fine” and “check” in their management briefings.

Not ONE of those words is used in MY management briefing: Our firm has exhibited leadership by enhancing the facilitation of synergystic, scalable core-competancy paradigm-shifts vis-a-vis the most granular service point of difference, empowering the ongoing assurance of the product architecture being functionally equivalent and parallel to the longitudinal business-practice shift postulated by the use of mission-critical management dialogue technology on a go-forward basis, in accordance with ISO-9001:2008 standards

[Bringbackthedraft]

September? The stores are putting out their Christmas stuff, the Auto industry is coming out with new model cars, the 2011 models are being reduced. Surprise! Jobs and Car sales are up. Duuuuh.

[sayuncledave]

The peeps espousing this stuff always seem to forget a little thing called “math,” don’t they? What will they say when the proverbial fecal matter hits the oscillating rotary device? It was “unexpected?” Silly rabbits.

[PowderMonkey]

Dang...I stand in awe. Mind if I borrow that for my next briefing?

[linn37]

I had no idea you could just leave your job because you wanted more money,collect unemployment and then come back to the same job.

[Lazamataz]

You can use it. You won’t be dinged for using the four forbidden words, and everyone will STILL be befuddled. Win/Win.

[factoryrat]

A couple of more buzzwords, and soon you will be CEO!.

[hemogoblin]

Haha — and don’t forget to “leverage the low-hanging fruit going forward.” :-D

[BobP]

Zer0 knows what he is doing, and he's not going to change course with his economy. We'll see his sustained propaganda and lies until election eve.

The game played by the Marxists is war where the end justifies the means. No matter how it's dressed up, it's an assault on America's freedom.

The winning rule in 2012: a direct and non-stop political attack on Obama's record!

 Obama -- My policies are based on a robust economic model: A big sinking ship raises the water level
 for smaller ships. Millionaires don't have a right to keep any of their hard-earned cash. At a certain
 point you've made enough money. And trade in that gas-guzzling SUV.

Countdown until Zer0 leaves Office: 470 days as of October 7, 2011.

[PowderMonkey]

Your next mission, should you choose to accept, is to infiltrate the DNC national convention: DoubleTalk

[aruanan]

Our firm has exhibited leadership by enhancing the facilitation of synergystic, scalable core-competancy paradigm-shifts vis-a-vis the most granular service point of difference, empowering the ongoing assurance of the product architecture being functionally equivalent and parallel to the longitudinal business-practice shift postulated by the use of mission-critical management dialogue technology on a go-forward basis, in accordance with ISO-9001:2008 standards

I'd love to have seen Richard Mitchell's take on the quote above.