Posted on 08/14/2011 12:00:53 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
I listen ad nauseam to posters, some who are pro-Palin and some who are anti-Palin, discourse about Sarah Palin's entry (or non-entry) into the 2012 Presidential sweepstakes, generally advising her to "Hurry up!". Those afflicted with PDS (Palin Derangement Syndrome) gleefully proclaim that she is not running. Of course, not only is there no evidence for this proposition, her actions in the last six months, as well as many of her statements, would lead any rational observer to believe that she will run. But leaving aside the PDSers (who are in any case engaging in wishful thinking because they do not want her to run), let me turn to the not insignificant number of Palinistas who are anxious that she should unambiguously announce her candidacy YESTERDAY or, at the very least, today. They are being taunted by the Establishment and the Mainstream Media over the delay in Palin's announcement. The Establishment is motivated by a desire that Palin, if she means to get in, enter the race sooner rather than later for strategic reasons, as I will explain. The media, always hungry for ratings, is motivated by a desire to have Palin in the race because her presence will juice up their withering balance sheets. The Palinistas merely want to be able to advocate for her as an official candidate and to hurl a collective "I told ya so" at her detractors. None of these constitutes a valid reason for her to adjust her announcement schedule if she wants to actually increase her chances of winning the nomination. There are many reasons to delay. The other candidates will begin to fade and to drop out, as they have. There is not clear frontrunner, which there isn't. The field is weak, which it is. And the candidates have not been vetted, which will cause their support to erode over time. On the other hand, Palin has 100% name recognition and is very popular with the GOP base. She does not need to introduce herself to them, although she will have to re-introduce herself to the national electorate, a process that she already begun with her bus tour and movie.
The most compelling reason to delay is very simple. Money. Palin will have to run an insurgent campaign. I believe she will have adequate funding, but she will not be able to compete with Establishment candidates like Romney and Perry in fundraising. A longer campaign, while it might warm the cockles of the Palinista heart, plays to the advantage of the well heeled Establishment candidates. A shorter campaign neutralizes that advantage. Both Romney and Perry will have more money than Palin. That is certain. But it is far from decisive. In 1979, Eastern Establishment scion George Bush outraised Ronald Reagan by a wide margin for his 1980 run, and former Texas Governor John Connally raised more than both, an up to that time unheard-of $11 million (for which he garnered a single delegate, before dropping out after the South Carolina primary). As Craig Shirley reported in his book, Rendezvous with Destiny, Reagan was cash-strapped when he announced (in November 1979)and did not have enough money to purchase a half hour of broadcast time the night of his announcement. And Reagan was nearly completely broke after the New Hampshire primary, while Bush continued to run a well funded campaign. Bush and Conally used their largesse to run longer, more expensive campaigns, defeating Reagan in virtually every straw poll in the summer and fall of 1979. (In Iowa, among the candidates on the straw poll ballot, it was Bush: 36%; Connally: 15% ; Bob Dole: 14%; Ronald Reagan 11%) The Gipper did worse in others, often finishing in single digits, as he did in an Oregon straw poll won by Bush with 35%. (h/t: Rendezvous with Destiny, Chapter 4)
What nearly cost Reagan the nomination in 1980 was a) the overspending of his campaign BEFORE and after his announcement and b) his failure to compete vigorously in Iowa(he visited the state only once) He lost narrowly to Bush 33-31 on caucus night. Bachmann's straw poll win garnered her some free publicity, but she bought 6000 tickets (@ $35 a pop) and received only 4800 votes.
The delay in Palin's announcement is principally rooted in a desire to neutralize the Establishment's money advantage. She already has a grass roots organization on the ground in Iowa (where she has been observed twice now in the company of Iowa fundraiser Becky Beach). She is not going to play in straw polls which do nothing but swell the coffers of the Establishment state parties, which by and large oppose her, and which garner no delegates. And her two recent visits to Iowa, to Pella and Ames, which were accompanied by raucous receptions, as well as her upcoming speech to the Tea Party activists at Wauka on September 3, indicate that she is not about to repeat the Gipper's mistake of overlooking Iowa.
Her entry in the next few weeks will cut Bachmann's support in the state in half, but she will also draw votes from conservative Catholics (who find Bachmann off-putting) and from the two governors still in the race, Romney and Perry. She is able to draw not just from the Evangelical wing (where she will shrink Bachmann dramatically) but from the CATO economic libertarian wing which finds both Perry's crony capitalism and Romney's statism anathema and which does not like Bachmann's high profile evangelical fervor.
Far from threatening her campaign, Sarah Palin's delay in announcing will prove to have been a brilliant move, as as well as a fiscally prudent one (portending no doubt the kind of Administration she will run), and it will set the standard for insurgent candidates in future races.
If I weren’t so frequently in the company of people like yourself who know history, there’s no doubt in my mind that I would be resoundingly ignorant. Thank you for your post.
Why is this Vanity in the News posts?
Good article. The anxiety is killing me, but I too believe Sarah Palin knows exactly what she is doing. Run Sarah Run.
>> “ The underhanded rumor and inuendo backstabbing campaign that is being conducted by bachmann against Palin will only hurt her, and it shows that she has no loyalty or core principles to stand on.” <<
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Exactly, and it proves that morally, Bachmann is more akin to Obama Than to Palin, and is definitely not presidential material.
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And they are all green.
Its not a vanity; its a well prepared Activist piece, and belongs in “News/Activism.”
You either completely missed the point, or you’re pretending to miss the point.
It needs to be emphasized that Bachman’s entry into the race is SOLELY as a Palin spoiler, period. She has a pretty face and is conservative, a Palin surrogate, period. That’s why she got the magic phone call from Wall Street, Inc. to join the fracas. Her entry reminds one of the machine that slipped Obama in past Hillary. It’s the same dynamic, probably run from the same HQ.
UNDERSTAND that there is a globalist conspiracy on both the right and the left controlled from the Wall Street, Inc. middle. Wall Street can go either way- carbon credit derivatives and their attendant manipulations under a green socialist regime or debt derivatives under a Wall Street oligarchical regime. They play both ends like a Stradivarius and we swing at shadows like a Palookaville carnival game.
Freepers need to dust off the old John Birch Society conspiracy material. The same looter-financeer oligarchy is pulling the puppet strings. They know in their bones that Palin will not be bought and is a patriot idealist unwilling to sell America’s soul to globalist enterprise. The globalist enterprise knows no loyalty to any sovereign republic and find a weakened American economy necessary to push their globalist 3rd world raw material exploitation into the manufacturing phase, then the technological phase that will soon be able to challenge America in weaponry, consumer durables, money lending and foreign policy.
These oligarchs created the Federal Reserve system to control our economy via money supply. The Federal Reserve is not a Federal agency. It is privately owned largely by European banks. Our blindness on this issue is crippling. Palin is not blind, that’s why she’s so dangerous to them, dangerous enough for them to pull pretty face Bachman out of their butts to march along side pretty face Romney.
There is no doubt in my mind that Sarah Palin is using Reagan's campaign strategy from 1980. Like Reagan, Palin is an ex-governor who played a major role in the previous presidential election so gaining national name recognition NOT A FACTOR. Like Reagan, Palin has the national press following her around and hanging on her every word so TOTALLY NOT NECESSARY to enter the campaign at this time. Like Reagan, Palin has access to a national audience as a paid consultant to Fox News (Reagan through his syndicated radio show) and thus has no need to start a national campaign so early.
Bottom line is that Sarah Palin can wait to officially start a campaign. All the caterwauling about how her fund-raising will dry up if she waits too long is nonsense. Once she is in the race, she can raise more money over the first weekend than the other candidates have raised up to now. All the hand-wringing over the fact that she will have no resources to run her campaign (if she waits too long) is also nonsense. Just today, we hear that Pawlenty is dropping out of the race and so all his staffers are out in the street looking for another campaign to work for. Several other candidates will drop out as well in the weeks and months ahead. So Sarah will have no issue hiring quality staffers when the time comes.
With respect to the comparison to the 1980 campaign, there is even a more striking difference. When Reagan finally announced in November of 1980, he was faced with the task of getting his message out. Back in those days, you had basically three national (broadcast) news networks and the newspapers (talk radio was in its infancy not not a major force). Thus it took a little time for Reagan to get the base fired up.
Today, the ability to instantly communicate with average Americans via Facebook, Twitter, etc., puts Palin in position to transform the race within hours of her announcement.
Bottom line: Sarah can afford to wait. Let the other candidates flare out like Roman candles. When she does enter the race, look out.
Is this Concern Troll day at FR?
I have read some pretty nasty comments about Sarah the last few days, most coming from this forum..its gotten pretty ugly, some saying she is only doing this to “Get rich” which is ironic coming from a Republican forum..I am used to hearing about the bad bad rich from Progressives but NOT from Republicans so that has been a shock..others saying she is “Teasing” people.please, she isn’t teasing anyone. She will decide when she is good and ready to decide..its a HUGE decision, why rush it, the only ones drawing conclusions are people like us, who make a fuss over every single thing she does trying to make something out of nothing. She is traveling the country to meet with the people, get an idea if she has a shot at winning, if she thinks she can win she will run..but #1 factor is her family, her family is #1 to her, if they say go for it she will go for it
>> “He can set up a garage somewhere on the grounds of 1600 Penn. and tinker on....” <<
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Aww, c’mon, we don’t need another Billy Carter. :o)
I agree. Unfortunately, it’s becoming apparent to me that this “tease” line is the latest talking point created by people who don’t like her. It’s intellectually dishonest as it requires them to pretend they don’t understand why it benefits her to hold off on her announcement. They understand perfectly, but since their goal is to disrupt rather than have an honest discussion, it benefits us little to argue with them.
Bachmann is like the anti-Palin. Great in the debates and in interviews, but very weak on the stump, whereas Sarah is great on the stump and draws huge crowds, but looks like a deer caught in headlights when someone interviews her.
I'm thinkin' she declares on Sept. 3rd at the Waukee, Iowa TEA party rally. Hope so. I'll be there to witness it!
>> “They know in their bones that Palin will not be bought and is a patriot idealist unwilling to sell America’s soul to globalist enterprise.” <<
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Precisely; that is why they support the morally wishy-washy Bachmann, Perry, and Romney.
Start a lottery at $5.00 an entry for the date and time Sarah will announce her candidacy, and the winner gets half of the proceeds.
At the same time, do the same for the PDSers, guessing when she will announce (or it becomes truly obvious) that she won't. Their prize should be a slightly larger percent, since they are in a distinct minority here, and we wouldn't want FR to be accused of discrimination against minorities (snicker).
Both of the above are a limited time proposition!
(by the way, could someone add "Palin" to the spell check? I get tired of being told I'm not perfect./s)
>> “Sarah is great on the stump and draws huge crowds, but looks like a deer caught in headlights when someone interviews her.” <<
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You must be from another planet!
Palin is great in interviews, and has a total grasp on policy. The American people see it, and that is why they flock to her events, and impromptu appearances in the tens of thousands, while other candidates are lucky to draw 100.
A political hack? You've got to be kidding. Either you don't know what the term means or you are just slanderous. She is the furthest thing from that. Try selling that crap to the establishment Republicans In Alaska. They wished she were a party hack after she sent them packing.
If you are going to say something, get your facts straight. At least do that.
Sorry, I’m not following your reply.
I’m not saying anything negative about her. In fact I think she has been and continues to be a great beacon for the conservative movement.
As Karl Rove has stated (not that I’m a fan but he knows how national campaigns are run) she has NO boots on the ground, anywhere. She has no organization on a national level. Twitter and tweeting does not make a presidential run. Sarah of course knows all this so there is only one viable explanation.
My personal opinion is she has no intention of running. I called it with Huck and I’m calling it with Sarah. She is not about to give up her position at fox to make a chance run against people like Perry, and Romney. They both have way more experience at this game. I also think that if she did run and failed to get the nomination we conservatives would likely lose one of our greatest assets with her as she would likely fade away after that. I will support her 100% if she were to get the nomination but it’s not going to happen. I’m very content to keep her doing the great things she is doing. She is crushing the lib agenda in the media and we can’t afford to lose that. Everyone has their place and I think Sarah has found hers.
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