Your photo reminds me of that picture of a snarling John McCain I see posted here now and then.
Posted on 08/14/2011 12:00:53 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
I listen ad nauseam to posters, some who are pro-Palin and some who are anti-Palin, discourse about Sarah Palin's entry (or non-entry) into the 2012 Presidential sweepstakes, generally advising her to "Hurry up!". Those afflicted with PDS (Palin Derangement Syndrome) gleefully proclaim that she is not running. Of course, not only is there no evidence for this proposition, her actions in the last six months, as well as many of her statements, would lead any rational observer to believe that she will run. But leaving aside the PDSers (who are in any case engaging in wishful thinking because they do not want her to run), let me turn to the not insignificant number of Palinistas who are anxious that she should unambiguously announce her candidacy YESTERDAY or, at the very least, today. They are being taunted by the Establishment and the Mainstream Media over the delay in Palin's announcement. The Establishment is motivated by a desire that Palin, if she means to get in, enter the race sooner rather than later for strategic reasons, as I will explain. The media, always hungry for ratings, is motivated by a desire to have Palin in the race because her presence will juice up their withering balance sheets. The Palinistas merely want to be able to advocate for her as an official candidate and to hurl a collective "I told ya so" at her detractors. None of these constitutes a valid reason for her to adjust her announcement schedule if she wants to actually increase her chances of winning the nomination. There are many reasons to delay. The other candidates will begin to fade and to drop out, as they have. There is not clear frontrunner, which there isn't. The field is weak, which it is. And the candidates have not been vetted, which will cause their support to erode over time. On the other hand, Palin has 100% name recognition and is very popular with the GOP base. She does not need to introduce herself to them, although she will have to re-introduce herself to the national electorate, a process that she already begun with her bus tour and movie.
The most compelling reason to delay is very simple. Money. Palin will have to run an insurgent campaign. I believe she will have adequate funding, but she will not be able to compete with Establishment candidates like Romney and Perry in fundraising. A longer campaign, while it might warm the cockles of the Palinista heart, plays to the advantage of the well heeled Establishment candidates. A shorter campaign neutralizes that advantage. Both Romney and Perry will have more money than Palin. That is certain. But it is far from decisive. In 1979, Eastern Establishment scion George Bush outraised Ronald Reagan by a wide margin for his 1980 run, and former Texas Governor John Connally raised more than both, an up to that time unheard-of $11 million (for which he garnered a single delegate, before dropping out after the South Carolina primary). As Craig Shirley reported in his book, Rendezvous with Destiny, Reagan was cash-strapped when he announced (in November 1979)and did not have enough money to purchase a half hour of broadcast time the night of his announcement. And Reagan was nearly completely broke after the New Hampshire primary, while Bush continued to run a well funded campaign. Bush and Conally used their largesse to run longer, more expensive campaigns, defeating Reagan in virtually every straw poll in the summer and fall of 1979. (In Iowa, among the candidates on the straw poll ballot, it was Bush: 36%; Connally: 15% ; Bob Dole: 14%; Ronald Reagan 11%) The Gipper did worse in others, often finishing in single digits, as he did in an Oregon straw poll won by Bush with 35%. (h/t: Rendezvous with Destiny, Chapter 4)
What nearly cost Reagan the nomination in 1980 was a) the overspending of his campaign BEFORE and after his announcement and b) his failure to compete vigorously in Iowa(he visited the state only once) He lost narrowly to Bush 33-31 on caucus night. Bachmann's straw poll win garnered her some free publicity, but she bought 6000 tickets (@ $35 a pop) and received only 4800 votes.
The delay in Palin's announcement is principally rooted in a desire to neutralize the Establishment's money advantage. She already has a grass roots organization on the ground in Iowa (where she has been observed twice now in the company of Iowa fundraiser Becky Beach). She is not going to play in straw polls which do nothing but swell the coffers of the Establishment state parties, which by and large oppose her, and which garner no delegates. And her two recent visits to Iowa, to Pella and Ames, which were accompanied by raucous receptions, as well as her upcoming speech to the Tea Party activists at Wauka on September 3, indicate that she is not about to repeat the Gipper's mistake of overlooking Iowa.
Her entry in the next few weeks will cut Bachmann's support in the state in half, but she will also draw votes from conservative Catholics (who find Bachmann off-putting) and from the two governors still in the race, Romney and Perry. She is able to draw not just from the Evangelical wing (where she will shrink Bachmann dramatically) but from the CATO economic libertarian wing which finds both Perry's crony capitalism and Romney's statism anathema and which does not like Bachmann's high profile evangelical fervor.
Far from threatening her campaign, Sarah Palin's delay in announcing will prove to have been a brilliant move, as as well as a fiscally prudent one (portending no doubt the kind of Administration she will run), and it will set the standard for insurgent candidates in future races.
Do we really feel so insecure that we will settle for a Compromise Candidate? Romney and Perry are both made for the media candidates, good-looking white guys who can be turned into the next stupid conservative. That is what we get when we root for the guy with the best chance of winning. If we let the media and the pundits choose our candidate, we will get another Bush, plain and simple. I want to see Obama beaten, but to be stuck with another George Bush I, with results similar to Read My Lips and then getting our troops into Somalia on the way out the door, NO THANK YOU!
Yep, no big donors and not enough small donors.
Halloween sounds about right.
"First Dude" is 100% behind Sarah running. With the Palins, it isn't about anything other than duty to country.
Your photo reminds me of that picture of a snarling John McCain I see posted here now and then.
“BC - Maybe Mitt will chip in some cash to keep her viable eh?”
Has he got that much? Seriously, as Bachmann begins to fade, how can Mitt be sure the money will be spent on the campaign and not something else?
.
Question - if you had made up your mind to run for President a month or more ago, but for strategic reasons can’t/won’t announce your candidacy until September, what would you say to the public in the meantime?
As always, well done.
The RNC rigged the system this year to create far more primaries where delegates are doled out proportionately. This GREATLY favors the well-financed Establishment campaigns and guarantees a much longer process. It's no accident they did this.
It's gonna be up to us 'hobbits' who support Palin to bear the brunt of the financing. I think she'll set records for small donations but will it be enough? That's been my concern for quite a while.
As you pointed out, Reagan had similar concerns. Several years back, Chris Matthews discussed the similarities between Fred Thompson's late entry and Reagan's. Here's a 2 min. video of this discussion which includes Reagan's own comments on the issue. He was concerned about his own personal financial situation at the time and I'm sure that's a factor for Gov. Palin as well:
Ronald Reagan June 21, 1979 (2 min. video)
Palin is following the Reagan model. With virtually 100% name ID, she doesn't need to slog around months in advance trying to build up recognition. She'll use her name ID, manipulate the media to keep her name out front, and her committed volunteer base to shorten the campaign and conserve resources for when it counts.
Hadn’t thought of that, but you nailed it!
Tickets to vote in the Straw Poll were $30, not #35... and Sarah Palin visited the State Fair Friday - that’s Des Moines, not Ames. To my knowledge, she’s not been to Ames ever. Certainly not this week. Check your facts.
It's not a tease. If reporters would quit asking the question, she wouldn't even bring up the subject. Palin will announce at a time of her choosing, not some impatient reporter.
Imagine you dating a girl/guy and relatives repeatedly ask you when are you going to get married? Now, you and your date have discussed it and have set a date but you really don't want it known at that time. Should you have to tell your relatives anyway just because they demand to know?
“I am tired of the tease. This is not what I expect from someone who bills herself as a different kind of politician.”
I understand how you feel. But the decision is not absolutely final until she says it is publicly. And there are good reasons to delay, as I point out. It is not a tease.
Reagan waited a long time in 1978-9, saying the same thing as Sarah. He had a chief of staff, as she does. His surrogates were laying the groundwork, as hers are. His delay was not a tease either. He knew he would be outspent by the same Establishment that hated him and now hates Palin. To take on the Establishment and beat them, you cannot fight them on terms they dictate. That is just a fact.
I want to win. I know you do too. To win, you have to be willing to wait and strike at the best time. (Think of Lee at Gettysburg. He was in a hurry for his battle of decision and he forced it and wound up losing the war.)
She is already somebody BIG and SPECIAL in the eyes of a huge number of Americans.
No other Republican is even in the same league with her stunning popularity and charisma.
She is a stadium-filling phenomenon.
That is why she is so hated and feared by the left.
She is going to pull off the greatest underdog victory by a woman since Elizabeth I defied overwhelming odds to preside over the defeat of King Phillip II's Spanish Armada, in 1588.
It was said of Elizabeth I she had abiding faith in her people and they, in turn, completely believed in her.
I was born far too late to witness that victory but am grateful to be alive to watch the historic great fortune about to shine on another rare woman of world history who will triumphantly lead her people out of darkness, with love and grace.
Sarah doesn’t have to *go at* bachmann, rollins is killing her. The underhanded rumor and inuendo backstabbing campaign that is being conducted by bachmann against Palin will only hurt her, and it shows that she has no loyalty or core principles to stand on.
If Sarah Palin had not endorsed her in her last election, campaigned for her, brought in donations and donated to her from her own PAC. bachmann would have lost that race.
THen SHE decides she is THE TEA Party leader. I didn’t vote for her to be my leader. Did you?
Anyone who thinks that rollins first leap in public as bachmann’s campaign manager against Palin was a fluke not completely condoned by bachmann, think agsin.
Here is something to ponder. bachmann says that she and Palin are good friends. Well, if that is so, why did she not bother to even say hello to her in Iowa? I mean, friends can compete. I have. Some days you get the bear, other days, the bear gets you. That doesn’t make my competitor any less my friend. MB could have actually helped herself politically by welcoming her *friend* to Iowa to the fair. That’s what I would have done.
I mean, picture it. A smiling, friendly Michelle Bachmann and a smiling Palin at the same place LOOKING like friends. Who do you think that would have helped more?
Instead, she showed up thirty minutes late clearly perturbed, spoke for three minutes, and ran away. Titanium spine and all.
rollins has her backtracking on her own previous statements and talking in soundbites. It is becoming so repetitive you could recite it yourself.
It will get old. Fast.
I pray you are correct!
There Is Only One!
You could have stopped right there. Anything you could possibly write after that:
1). We've already heard... and discounted... between one-thousand and ten-thousand times.
2). Will not be taken seriously, as that lead-in automatically and indelibly defines you.
3). It doesn't matter if you really mean what you say next, it makes the 87% of FReepers who support Palin not want to waste their time reading it.
There is a miniscule and insignificant percentage who will eagerly read on, hoping for some new nugget, some fresh ammo to use when tilting at their imagined Palin windmill, but even they will be disappointed, because every negative thing that could be said about Sarah, as well as every negative thing that could never be said of her, have already been said a gajillion times over the past third of a decade.
I really wanted to read what you had to say, but...
;^\
Full disclosure, Al. You jogged my memory on a lot of this the other day, as you frequently do, so you deserve a huge hat tip.
How do you find these Reagan clips? Unbelievable. Your scholarship on all things Reagan amazes me.
Don’t forget the TransTexas Corridor.
Blind and deaf much?
Palin is, first, a Christian, then a Mom, then a Patriot. "Business woman" is so far down her list that it doesn't bear mentioning in a discussion about what defines or motivates her. You're either blind, deceitful, or stupid. Possibly all of the above.
Nice.
;^\
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