Posted on 08/14/2011 12:00:53 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
I listen ad nauseam to posters, some who are pro-Palin and some who are anti-Palin, discourse about Sarah Palin's entry (or non-entry) into the 2012 Presidential sweepstakes, generally advising her to "Hurry up!". Those afflicted with PDS (Palin Derangement Syndrome) gleefully proclaim that she is not running. Of course, not only is there no evidence for this proposition, her actions in the last six months, as well as many of her statements, would lead any rational observer to believe that she will run. But leaving aside the PDSers (who are in any case engaging in wishful thinking because they do not want her to run), let me turn to the not insignificant number of Palinistas who are anxious that she should unambiguously announce her candidacy YESTERDAY or, at the very least, today. They are being taunted by the Establishment and the Mainstream Media over the delay in Palin's announcement. The Establishment is motivated by a desire that Palin, if she means to get in, enter the race sooner rather than later for strategic reasons, as I will explain. The media, always hungry for ratings, is motivated by a desire to have Palin in the race because her presence will juice up their withering balance sheets. The Palinistas merely want to be able to advocate for her as an official candidate and to hurl a collective "I told ya so" at her detractors. None of these constitutes a valid reason for her to adjust her announcement schedule if she wants to actually increase her chances of winning the nomination. There are many reasons to delay. The other candidates will begin to fade and to drop out, as they have. There is not clear frontrunner, which there isn't. The field is weak, which it is. And the candidates have not been vetted, which will cause their support to erode over time. On the other hand, Palin has 100% name recognition and is very popular with the GOP base. She does not need to introduce herself to them, although she will have to re-introduce herself to the national electorate, a process that she already begun with her bus tour and movie.
The most compelling reason to delay is very simple. Money. Palin will have to run an insurgent campaign. I believe she will have adequate funding, but she will not be able to compete with Establishment candidates like Romney and Perry in fundraising. A longer campaign, while it might warm the cockles of the Palinista heart, plays to the advantage of the well heeled Establishment candidates. A shorter campaign neutralizes that advantage. Both Romney and Perry will have more money than Palin. That is certain. But it is far from decisive. In 1979, Eastern Establishment scion George Bush outraised Ronald Reagan by a wide margin for his 1980 run, and former Texas Governor John Connally raised more than both, an up to that time unheard-of $11 million (for which he garnered a single delegate, before dropping out after the South Carolina primary). As Craig Shirley reported in his book, Rendezvous with Destiny, Reagan was cash-strapped when he announced (in November 1979)and did not have enough money to purchase a half hour of broadcast time the night of his announcement. And Reagan was nearly completely broke after the New Hampshire primary, while Bush continued to run a well funded campaign. Bush and Conally used their largesse to run longer, more expensive campaigns, defeating Reagan in virtually every straw poll in the summer and fall of 1979. (In Iowa, among the candidates on the straw poll ballot, it was Bush: 36%; Connally: 15% ; Bob Dole: 14%; Ronald Reagan 11%) The Gipper did worse in others, often finishing in single digits, as he did in an Oregon straw poll won by Bush with 35%. (h/t: Rendezvous with Destiny, Chapter 4)
What nearly cost Reagan the nomination in 1980 was a) the overspending of his campaign BEFORE and after his announcement and b) his failure to compete vigorously in Iowa(he visited the state only once) He lost narrowly to Bush 33-31 on caucus night. Bachmann's straw poll win garnered her some free publicity, but she bought 6000 tickets (@ $35 a pop) and received only 4800 votes.
The delay in Palin's announcement is principally rooted in a desire to neutralize the Establishment's money advantage. She already has a grass roots organization on the ground in Iowa (where she has been observed twice now in the company of Iowa fundraiser Becky Beach). She is not going to play in straw polls which do nothing but swell the coffers of the Establishment state parties, which by and large oppose her, and which garner no delegates. And her two recent visits to Iowa, to Pella and Ames, which were accompanied by raucous receptions, as well as her upcoming speech to the Tea Party activists at Wauka on September 3, indicate that she is not about to repeat the Gipper's mistake of overlooking Iowa.
Her entry in the next few weeks will cut Bachmann's support in the state in half, but she will also draw votes from conservative Catholics (who find Bachmann off-putting) and from the two governors still in the race, Romney and Perry. She is able to draw not just from the Evangelical wing (where she will shrink Bachmann dramatically) but from the CATO economic libertarian wing which finds both Perry's crony capitalism and Romney's statism anathema and which does not like Bachmann's high profile evangelical fervor.
Far from threatening her campaign, Sarah Palin's delay in announcing will prove to have been a brilliant move, as as well as a fiscally prudent one (portending no doubt the kind of Administration she will run), and it will set the standard for insurgent candidates in future races.
“Imagine you dating a girl/guy and relatives repeatedly ask you when are you going to get married? Now, you and your date have discussed it and have set a date but you really don’t want it known at that time. Should you have to tell your relatives anyway just because they demand to know?”
It would depend on whether you insisted on hanging around outside of the church.
There were several thousand boatloads of American GI's sitting in England tired of Ike "teasing" them by withholding the actual invasion date.
Make no mistake, the stakes have never been higher since the Civil War.
The GOP Old Boy network has proved that the are prepared to play the role of the Vichy French rather than change their ways and the direction of this country.
We conservatives are fighting them as fighting the socialist hard left. Sarah Palin had the whole corrupt process revealed to her during the 2008 campaign.
And I don't remember a single damn GOP contender that came to her defense during the most vile and disgusting personal attacks against her and her family, not even to this day.
So yeah, she's conducting a very different kind of campaign, she has to.
So I'm prepared to check and recheck my gear and hold my money for that moment she announces because it's going to be like Patton's Third Army rapidly advancing thru and over the enemy,and I going to be there as a political 11Bravo.
I’ve had to tell the Bachmann people to take me off their phone list 3 or 4 times now.
I donated to her in 2008 I think (might have been 2010, but I don’t think so). Ever since then, I only hear her asking for money. Every time she is on Sean Hannity, its “Nancy Pelosi has a target on me and I need money to stay and fight for you.” Unfortunately, that turned me off to her and I haven’t been able to warm up to her since.
Even a comment as harmless as "I don't think she's running" will summon personal attacks and name calling. Then they have the nerve to accuse fellow Freepers of "Palin Derangement Syndrome", even though I've never heard anyone on this site claim that they won't vote for her if she gets the nod.
I think Todd would select vocational training as ‘a cause’, be the president’s most important confidant, but also focus on being a caretaker for Willow, Piper and Trig.
Texas Governorship is a “weak” position? Really?? She said that??
Posts like this one certainly will make me think twice about voting for Palin IF she decides to run and wins the nomination. You’re doing her no good by these nasty, disgusting diatribes. Makes me question why she attracts such vile, hateful “fans”...
It is between Mitt, Perry and Palin...I see a Palin/Perry or Perry/Palin....
She should head the energy department and create a two million jobs drilling for oil and building pipelines and refining..
What's your complaint with Palin? That she hanging around outside the church?
Would you prefer that she hide far away while she tests the waters?
LOL.
There's plenty of insults from supporters of other candidates too.
;^\
8^D
No. The original poster complained that the reporters keep asking Palin if she’s running and then made the analogy that an engaged couple might not want to say when they are getting married. My post was simply to show that if she’s going to hang around Iowa or other places where already-announced candidates are, of course she will be asked whether she is running. In other words, as to your question, (”Would you prefer that she hide far away while she tests the waters?”), my answer would be no but that her supporters shouldn’t expect that she won’t be asked whether she’s running. Further, I’m sure she expects that question.
I'm sure you say the same thing every time a Perry or a Bachmann supporter personally attacks a critique of their candidate, right?
And don't tell me Perry supporters and Bachmann supporters don't do that.
>> “Like Caiphas” <<
.
You glorify that slimeball...
Wish I didn't have that conflict(of comparisons) in the back of my mind..
It looks to me that you would rather be lied to, rather than someone taking their time to make a decision. Just because you want an answer NOW!
Sorry....what “critique” of Palin are you referring to? The post that elicited the rude and juvenile reply that I read was a an opinion, not a critique.
I don’t intend to tell you anything about Perry or Bachmann supporters. This thread is about Sarah Palin. Have a nice evening.
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