Posted on 08/11/2011 2:33:03 PM PDT by Polybius
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
Discussing Presidential election politics has become very tricky on Free Republic since, especially with the Palin supporters, the discussion tends to be emotion driven rather than data driven. When any poll other than a FOX News poll is posted, it is dismissed as being a liberal poll. When I have quoted the most recent (February) FOX News poll, it was dismissed as being “old data”.
Well, here it is, folks. The latest FOX News comprehensive Presidential election poll, conducted every six months, was released yesterday evening:
Unless your aim is simply to get your favorite candidate nominated by the GOP, regardless of the consequences to America, the ultimate goal should be to nominate the most conservative candidate possible that actually has a good chance of defeating Barack Obama in November 2012. As such, the question that asks voter if they believe that Candidate X would be a good President or not is a crucial indicator of electability. In the latest August 2011 comprehensive FOX News poll, the candidates stack up as follows, with comparisons to the previous February FOX News poll:
FOX News Poll: (August 7-9, 2011)
22. – 31. I’m going to read you a list of names -- for each one please tell me if you think that person would make a good president or not. If you have never heard of a person, please just say so.
...............................YES........NO..........DK.....Never heard of
Mitt Romney
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........34%.......45%.........12%.......9%
..7-9 Feb 11 ............33%........45%.........8%........13%
Michele Bachmann
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........22%.......50%.........11%.......16%
..7-9 Feb 11 ............10%........39%.........11%........41%
Ron Paul
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........22%.......48%.........14%.......16%
Sarah Palin
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........19%.......75%..........4%........1%
..7-9 Feb 11 ............23%........72%..........4%.........1%
Rick Perry
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........19%.......37%.........14%.......30%
Newt Gingrich
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........15%.......69%..........9%........7%
..7-9 Feb 11 ............23%........60%..........7%........10%
Tim Pawlenty
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........14%.......38%.........15%.......33%
..7-9 Feb 11 ............13%........30%.........12%........45%
Herman Cain
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........13%.......33%.........13%.......41%
Rick Santorum
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........10%.......35%.........15%.......39%
..7-9 Feb 11 .............9%........32%.........13%........46%
Jon Huntsman
.. 7-9 Aug 11 ...........10%.......31%.........19%.......41%
..7-9 Feb 11 .............6%........27%.........12%........55%
As can be seen, although Sarah Palin’s polling data was absolutely toxic in the February, with 72% of all voters believing she would not be a good President, it is even more toxic now, in August, with 75% of all voters believing she would not be a good President . The full comparison between the February Palin polling data and the August Palin polling data is shown below.
Some candidates, such as Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum are still unknown to a large percentage of voters and have room for potential improvement. Michele Bachmann was such a candidate in February but, since then, the percentage of voters who have never heard of her has dropped from 41% to 16% and her “Believe would not be a good President” percentage has increased from 39% to 50%.
By contrast the number of all voters that have not heard of Sarah Palin is a miniscule 1% and the percentage of voters that have no opinion of her is only 4%. Everybody that is not living under a rock has already formed an opinion of Sarah Palin. The Sarah Palin concrete has already set.
Of all the GOP actual or potential candidates, Sarah Palin combines the highest name recognition factor by far with the most negative polling data by far. If the intention is to actually get elected President, and not merely to be nominated as the sacrificial lamb for a ceremonial gutting by Obama in November of 2012, that is the worst possible combination. Only Newt Gingrich comes close to that toxic combination.
Sarah Palin may be a lot of things but she is not dumb. She realizes that any entry into the Presidential race will result in a highly embarrassing failed campaign that, if it is ever seriously conducted, can leave a candidate deep in personal debt as was the case with Hillary Clinton. Most seriously, though, an actual GOP nomination of Sarah Palin would guarantee the reelection of Barack Obama and Sarah Palin is too much of a patriot to temp her supporters to blunder into such a disaster. I believe that Sarah Palin has rationally examined the polling data that has been out there all along and, for personal and patriotic reasons, will settle for the role of alleged “Kingmaker” by endorsing another candidate rather than experience the certain failure of a campaign.
===============================
FEBRUARY 2011 COMPREHENSIVE FOX NEWS POLL:
FOX News Poll (February 7-9, 2011)
Question 3: I am going to read you a list of names. Tell me if you think that person would make a good President or not.
Sarah Palin:
.................YES.........NO.......DK.....Never heard of
ALL...........23%.......72%.........4%.......1%
Dem ...........7%........87%........5%.......1%
Rep ...........40%.......56%.......3%.......1%
Ind ...........25%........69%.......3%.......1%
===============================
AUGUST 2011 COMPREHENSIVE FOX NEWS POLL:
FOX News Poll: (August 7-9, 2011)
Question 25. Sarah Palin - Do you think this person would make a good president or not?
.................YES.........NO.......DK.....Never heard of
ALL...........19%.......75%.........4%.......1%
Dem ...........7%........89%........3%.......1%
Rep ...........34%.......58%.......7%.......1%
Ind ...........20%........74%.......5%.......1%
FYI
Palin for POTUS in 2012!
While I don't want Sarah Palin to run, I think she would be a good President. I think most of the GOP field would be better than Obama.
I think a corn field would be better than Obama.
Why are you so sure that Perry’s record will put him into the positive? The more I learn about him, the further he moves from being an acceptable candidate.
If you’re going to post polls to support your candidates cause, you might find one that supports your candidate.
From what you posted, no one is an acceptable candidate including Perry.
But, these early polls are extremely accurate.
http://www.lifenews.com/2007/07/04/nat-3224/
I think Sarah Palin would make an excellent president.
I don’t think the American electorate will vote for her.
The poorly written sentence above is factually inaccurate. High negatives at this point mean little as the poll was not conducted among likely Republican voters. The long primary season changes perceptions. The economy if rocky enough in the Fall of 2012 may guarantee any Republican nominee victory.
Well, you’ve proved it to me, Sarah Palin should get out a rope, tie it around a limb and hang herself. Why even try?
Long ago I broke my neck in a sports accident and was completely paralyzed. Although I had to struggle incredibly hard and finally came back to lead 40 years of a great life without paralysis, I sure wish I’d had you by my bedside to show me my true destiny.
Never do what’s right, always do what is easy. Words to die by.
While I agree with most of her positions I’ve been pretty vocal about my belief that Palin won’t even run. She knows she can’t win. The LSM has been very successful in their goal to make her candidacy completely toxic. Unfortunately her horrible poll numbers are not simply propaganda.
Even amongst Republicans, each of them have high negative numbers. Not sure exactly what it means, but on the surface, it concerns me.
Palin will do fine as a candidate, a 700 million dollar advertising campaign and the title of official GOP nominee will return Palin to the normal status that she has always held as a candidate and leader, which is popular and well liked.
We conservatives know how the media works, that is why our candidates are always hated inbetween elections until the election season starts and we get to counter and overcome some of the media bias.
I would vote for a corn field over Obama.
I do. There are almost 15 months until Nov. ‘12, and I don’t think that Sarah’s shattering the foolish memes that gullible people have bought will be as difficult as people think. Bob
“I think a corn field would be better than Obama.”
Would someone stalk him?
Thank you for your “concern” about Sarah, Polybius! Bob
Actually, Perry has a 14% DK (Don't Know).
The 30% is "Never Heard of Him".
At this stage of the game, that's good.
That means that Perry still has 44% of the voters at least willing to get to know him and possibly vote for him.
I will admit that, although Perry is my current dog in this fight, I do not necessarily "like" Perry. If I could magically construct the ideal nominee, it would not be him.
I believe that his Texas drawl will remind voters of Bush, I believe that wearing his religion on his sleeve will not play well outside of the Bible Belt and I have never cared for politicians or salesmen whose hair is too "perfect" (It reflexively makes me see if my wallet is still in my pocket.)
Yet, when I look at the executive experience of some candidates (zero) and the Favorabilty of other candidates among all voters (lower than whale scat at the bottom of the ocean) that leaves Perry as the only GOP nominee, other than the liberal Romney, that can trounce Obama in November of 2012.
To paraphrase Churchill, "Perry is the worst potential GOP candidate we have to defeat Obama .... Except for all the others."
OMG, they are all in the red, the red color wins over all of them. That leads me to believe one thing, “It ain’t over until its over.”
No, it won’t. Time can remove someone’s negatives as it did for Hillary but expecting a nomination will act as a miracle elixir in the space of a year on her polling? It will not happen.
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