Posted on 06/16/2011 2:20:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Rasmussen released the second part of its GOP primary polling this morning, this time concerning those potential candidates not in the race. The survey of likely Republican primary voters does not indicate a massive desire for more candidates to jump into the race, but support for bids by Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani exceeds opposition. That isn’t true for Sarah Palin:
A plurality of Republican primary voters think it would be good for Texas Governor Rick Perry to jump into the party’s presidential race and bad for the party if former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin joined the field. They are evenly divided about former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 36% of Likely GOP Primary Voters think it would be good for Republicans if Palin enters the race, but 45% believe it would be bad for the party. Just 11% say it would have no impact. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Thirty-six percent (36%) also feel it would be good for the GOP if Perry enters the race. Only 21% say it would be bad for the party, while 26% think it would have no impact. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.
As for Giuliani, best known for his leadership in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, 38% of likely primary voters believe it would be good for their party if he joins the presidential race. Nearly as many (35%), however, see his candidacy as bad for the GOP. Nineteen percent (19%) say it would have no impact.
Earlier, commenters on the first Rasmussen release wondered why the pollster didn’t include potential candidates in the survey, and this answers the question. None of the three got above 36% in demand for a run. Given the lack of any other potential candidates, this appears to bolster the argument that likely primary voters see the current field as sufficient.
The internals don’t look good for Palin in this instance. In almost all demographics, opposition to a primary bid outstrips support. Among men, it’s a 42/42 tie, but among women, it’s a double-digit deficit at 28/49. Palin trails in every age demographic and loses a majority among 40-49YOs, 34/51; she also loses a majority among independents planning to vote in the GOP primaries, 34/53. Black voters (53/26), those unsure of their ideology (70/27), and Tea Party members (49/33) support the idea of a Palin candidacy. Evangelicals are the only religious denomination to support a Palin run, but at a surprisingly low 44/38 mark. Palin also picks up support from lower-income levels below $40K and the $60-75K demo, but loses the other income demos.
The numbers for Perry and Giuliani aren’t bad, but they’re not “draft”-level figures, either. A Perry run would be seen positively across the board, but not terribly enthusiastically. He actually gets a majority of Tea Party voters (53/17), scoring better among them than Palin, and a majority among black voters, as does Giuliani, who also gets a majority of 30-39YOs. Otherwise, support for any of the three is rather tepid, at least at this point.
One interesting point: Black voters are enthusiastic about all three potential bids, by a majority in each case. They don’t appear to be satisfied with the current field.
33% want to Mitt to be the nominee.
I suspect that if Rasmussen had the objective fortitude to include Palin in the nominee survey, Palin would have gotten about 36% of the vote, which would be the highest total for any candidate.
But Rasmussen didn't do it and Rasmussen doesn't have it.
Good point, but I see polling a little differently!
While it`s true I am 150% in the tank for Gov Palin, I have held this view of polling for many years now, it`s not just something I am throwing out there because I happen to like/dislike certain poll numbers.
I just do not believe in the “science” of political polling when it is done by partisan media outfits, each and every pollster has an agenda whether it`s Rasmussen,Gallup, Fox Opinion Dynamics...whatever. btw Fox is just as bad as any of them, and I am talking a liberal polling outfit that operates out of Manchester NH
So this is not some conspiracy I just dreamed up because I am unhappy with Our Sarah`s poll numbers, but something I believe deeply in and for some years now.
Having said that, we do have ALL the pollsters taking part in the bashing of Sarah Palin, this is so obvious to me, not sure why others can not see this as well.
Ras is doing the dirty work for rep establishment, he has come out with I believe 3 damning polls on Sarah Palin in the past 3 weeks.
First one he asks all adults over 18 if they believe Sarah is qualified to be President (should have been at least reg voters if not likely) he was after the worst number he could bring in.
Again today he releases a poll that says GOP primary voters for the most part do not want her to run.
Again today he releases a poll that has MB getting a huge bounce for her debate performance, but he does not include Palin in this poll.. He had Trump in his recent polling, he mentions that today in the polling data ...made a reference to Trump, something about how he previously lead, it`s in todays synopsis...Trump never declared he was running.
I could go on and on about all the pollsters, they all have an agenda. More than you wanted to know I am sure.
The last pollster that I trusted was George Gallup, a wonderful Christian man, he sold the company, not sure if he is even with us anymore.
Dont even talk to me about the so called science of averaging phony polls as they do today...what a joke.
Not asking you to agree with me, just saying... polling is a joke, and I held this view before I even heard of Sarah Palin.
All the pollsters do now is manufacture opinion, nothing more.
If someone wants to say, I know a honest pollster? to late for that because the masses are affected by the phony polls, so if a honest pollster came along, he would still mostly be talking to people that have heard the others.
The pool is polluted and in my opinion they are all dishonest.
All the pollsters are going to push MB and it`s not because she got a huge bounce, it`s only that they want to give her a huge bounce. And the reason is they have 1 common goal (pollsters/msm/rep establishment) to discourage and keep Gov Palin out of the race.
Well Rita, if you think Sarah Palin did everything she did over the last two years for any other reason than making a run for the White House, I’m afraid you’ve bought into the enemy line.
All I can tell you is to keep your eyes open, and watch how this all develops. Like I said, Sarah Palin is going to surprise you.
LOL, yea that boy is a piece of work.
He’s full of....himself (translation of name fits)
Only 1 in 8 vote at all...
Well we know about 33% want Mitt and the other 12% support the other mutts.
That certainly doesn't make the current group of announced candidates look good, does it.
Yet BOR is on the tube tonight pushing this as good news for Romney and Bachmann.
That's how it works folks.
Tell me, what happened to Sarah being on Greta tonight? I’m sitting right by my TV and I did not see Sarah on Greta. What gives?
I'm sorry, but this means you would have said the same about Reagan, who was much farther behind in the polls, with far greater negatives than Palin has now.
Aren't you proud of yourself?
*rolls eyes*
Why some on this site are so dead set against Sarah Palin is a total mystery to me. The only rational explanation for it, lies in the area of mental health.
We may joke about some people having 'PDS', but there is a small but vocal contingent that is demonstrably deranged, where she's concerned.
You can take that to the Bank.
And you think that applies to black conservatives, as well?
I noticed that too. I thought maybe I missed Sarah.
I flipped over to Greta and saw her doing Weiner instead.
The last couple of POTUS election cycles, candidates have been getting in earlier and earlier, and it's absurd.
The media loves it, it makes them more money.
Especially because it's a 93.7% given that Obama isn't going to be challenged.
It would be a whole different game if it was dems challenging a republican incumbent imo.
But IMO it's not good for the candidates, one gets in and then the rest think they have to also.
Then they have to be almost constantly engaged, and it can wear on them to quite a degree.
I have no problem with Palin biding her time and watch candidates implode here and there.
JFK got in in Jan the year he was elected.
I think Clinton got in October of the year that would correspond to the time we are at now.
The media, dems, and the GOP want Plain to get in ASAP so they can start destroying her as a candidate, instead of just as a conservative watching from a slight distance.
I think she is very wise.
Try the Slauson cutoff. Then get out of your car.
Yes, but that applies no matter what the survey was designed for.
To ferret out the truth?
Or to reach a pre-ordained conclusion designed by those paying for the poll?
Nice try, though.
Cheers!
In which case Rove, or Romney, or Cass Sunstein is REALLY getting ripped off.
Cheers!
It's like they come to their conclusion, then poll the people that they know will kick the results their way.
It's amazing that so many people take polls so seriously, like they really mean something more than they do.
Yep, Fox ain't any better.
I watched that Frank Luntz poofter in his rise at Fox, and he just gets more and more arrogant every time I see him.
By the time I start to get those squiggly lines almost figured out, they cut away. To his pontification and leading the crowd around by the nose.
A fat cat, fat and sassy.
He's got a good gig with Hannity, fits his milk toast show perfectly.
I agree. No reason to be in now. Historically it is still early in the process. Fall would be fine, if she chooses to run. Getting in early is for those that need to raise their profile and raise money. She would rake in tens of millions the moment she entered.
Perry tried to force STD vaccinations on underaged girls in Texas, and was a supporter of the Trans Texas Corridor (expressway for illegal immigrants).
Sarah RAN OVER her opposition in the legislature and Big Oil.
Go watch "The Undefeated" and then kneel and ask penance for defiling the name of the Mama Grizzly.
Cheers!
Sarah being on Greta tonight?
Didn’t happen huh?
I haven’t been paying attention to tv today much, been in and out.
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