Posted on 06/16/2011 2:20:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Rasmussen released the second part of its GOP primary polling this morning, this time concerning those potential candidates not in the race. The survey of likely Republican primary voters does not indicate a massive desire for more candidates to jump into the race, but support for bids by Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani exceeds opposition. That isn’t true for Sarah Palin:
A plurality of Republican primary voters think it would be good for Texas Governor Rick Perry to jump into the party’s presidential race and bad for the party if former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin joined the field. They are evenly divided about former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 36% of Likely GOP Primary Voters think it would be good for Republicans if Palin enters the race, but 45% believe it would be bad for the party. Just 11% say it would have no impact. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Thirty-six percent (36%) also feel it would be good for the GOP if Perry enters the race. Only 21% say it would be bad for the party, while 26% think it would have no impact. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.
As for Giuliani, best known for his leadership in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, 38% of likely primary voters believe it would be good for their party if he joins the presidential race. Nearly as many (35%), however, see his candidacy as bad for the GOP. Nineteen percent (19%) say it would have no impact.
Earlier, commenters on the first Rasmussen release wondered why the pollster didn’t include potential candidates in the survey, and this answers the question. None of the three got above 36% in demand for a run. Given the lack of any other potential candidates, this appears to bolster the argument that likely primary voters see the current field as sufficient.
The internals don’t look good for Palin in this instance. In almost all demographics, opposition to a primary bid outstrips support. Among men, it’s a 42/42 tie, but among women, it’s a double-digit deficit at 28/49. Palin trails in every age demographic and loses a majority among 40-49YOs, 34/51; she also loses a majority among independents planning to vote in the GOP primaries, 34/53. Black voters (53/26), those unsure of their ideology (70/27), and Tea Party members (49/33) support the idea of a Palin candidacy. Evangelicals are the only religious denomination to support a Palin run, but at a surprisingly low 44/38 mark. Palin also picks up support from lower-income levels below $40K and the $60-75K demo, but loses the other income demos.
The numbers for Perry and Giuliani aren’t bad, but they’re not “draft”-level figures, either. A Perry run would be seen positively across the board, but not terribly enthusiastically. He actually gets a majority of Tea Party voters (53/17), scoring better among them than Palin, and a majority among black voters, as does Giuliani, who also gets a majority of 30-39YOs. Otherwise, support for any of the three is rather tepid, at least at this point.
One interesting point: Black voters are enthusiastic about all three potential bids, by a majority in each case. They don’t appear to be satisfied with the current field.
you just gave yourself away by saying...more conservative than yourself.
LOL@Cuddle
Poll sycophants here should look at history, they have Palin hogtied and corralled when she is in actuality looking on smiling and biding her time.
Kinda like Obama was back in the same period.
“Plurality of GOP primary voters prefer Palin to stay out in 2012”
If it’s true then Palin won’t win the Primary. Basically they’re saying they won’t vote for Palin. Why wasn’t the question phrased that way?
For a woman with no brain and no chance of winning, Sarah Palin sure scares a whole lot of people half to death.
You will notice Syncro, that his name is Greek for “a whole lot of B.S.”
Thank you FRiend.
LLS
These are female REPUBLICAN primary voters, not shallow, flighty Democrats, therefore I don’t believe it’s about Palin’s looks. It has to be something else.
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agreed. i think you make a point, that i wish some smart freepers would investigate.
i’d be curious to know, if the same low female rate applies to Bachmann, who certainly is attractive.
but like you, i don’t think it is looks.
if someone could identify it, it might be easily fixed misunderstanding, or, if not, it might make a real difference. i’m honestly curious...
Freedom and Liberty are under assault as much as they were during the Revolution. Every Conservative on FR knows that what I am saying is true. These vermin are playing their game of politics... and these polls and focus groups are all about shaping the playing field. These people are as dirty and conniving as any kennedy or clinton. They are as much the enemy of America as obama is.
Here is a true story that Rush told. He told it again a couple of months ago. It is somewhere in his archives.
In his second year after going National, Rush was invited to a hoity toity Martha's Vineyard republican leadership weekend. While sipping fine Brandy and smoking a Macanudo... this certain ranking republican Senator ambled up to him.
"Rush, you have got to tell those Social Conservatives to cool it". Rush asked him what he meant. "You see Rush, we are never going to win elections unless they cool it on the "gay thing" and abortion".
Rush told him that he could never do that... that even if he did... we wouldn't listen to him. He told this ass that he didn't understand who we really were.
"Rush... have you seen some of "those people"? I mean we do not want them at our gatherings and especially not at the Conventions. Our wives are embarrassed to be seen in public with them".
Rush described these "wives" as NAGS... or better known as members of NOW. This is exactly how these jerks view us... they have no idea of the depth of thinking and reasoning that resides in the people of America. They are leeches... parasites on America's productivity. In many cases they were a nobody when they came to DC and have become multi millionaires by the time that they leave office... and they never created anything but debt and mayhem. That is why when I see this Goebbels styled propaganda in what is supposed to be "our party"... well I just cannot sit idly by and allow it to go unchallenged. We do not have to agree... I just hope that you understand why I am doing what it is that I do.
LLS
Well, obviously, the tea party are RINOS!!!!
Some might believe that a Palin run would divide the party, and if she didn’t win, or other candidates said anything negative about her, the Palin supporters would get upset and turn off, making it that much harder for the eventual nominee to carry the base into the general election.
For those people, if Palin doesn’t run, and instead endorses another candidate, that would be much better for the party. Of course, these poeple obviously believe that Palin won’t win the nomination.
Others might think she would win the nomination, but not be able to win the general election, which they would also believe would be bad for the party.
I don’t agree with this assessment — I’m just explaining to you two reasons why someone would oppose a Palin entry that are different than “the only reason” you could think of.
As I said whatever floats your boat get to it. I’d defend your right to do as you want whether I agree or not. That to me is the freedom we have.
Take care.
If she decides she can win the Presidency, there’s no way she’ll decline just to make money on a book.
She’d make just as much, if not more, after a successful presidential run, or even an unsuccessful one.
If she doesn’t enter the race, it will be because, as she said last year, someone she could support entered the race.
I do have my own opinion but that is not the issue here.
It is Polybius that does not believe anyone, declared or undeclared, fits that definition. And that is where your question is being directed.
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>>> The Undefeated will turn a lot of heads and change a lot of minds.
As if anyone other then Palin fans will go see that. Same as people who were ALREADY Bush haters were the audience to see Michael Moore’s attack film.
Few regular people are motivated to sit through an undisguised propaganda piece. It just reenforces the true believers.
” LOL, she has had them running in circles! “ ======
Sure she does. If she were actually to declare, then the war with the media might make some sense to me, but the war and the drama serves what purpose? What is there for Sarah to not know by now? Why hint at diminishing the others if you’re not willing to be in yourself? It’s just getting harder and harder to appreciate all the damn drama when there is no fire in the theatre.
I mean I get that - in part. But either we believe in a primary system or we don’t.
But the larger point is that every day we’re treated to new revelations of how Sarah can’t win, or shouldn’t win, or it would be better if she didn’t win, blah blah blah.
The concern of the political establishment and the media for the health of the Republican party is - well - touching - but I for one ain’t buying it.
I say go all in with Sarah and see what happens. We’ve tried the RINO approach and it’s a proven loser.
Thanks. I appreciate that. See you down thread.
LLS
Sounds way off to me. How'd you arrive at that figure?
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