Posted on 11/12/2010 4:39:34 PM PST by Bigtigermike
Do you like to look at Pre-Season College football polls? For some it's fun is it not to go over who is considered the favorite to win it all? But alas these polls ultimately has no true bearing on who is going to win the championship, the games have to be played out and not just on paper.....the same can be said about Media-inspired Presidential candidates polling data, even if it's accurate.
In the history of modern politics, polling done on candidates on either political party, years or even weeks before the Primary season has no bearing on what we will actually see or experience during the actual process of the numerous campaigns and the myriad of debates to happen. It's tiring to see many jump the gun on what a poll says before anything is actually done.
It's all about running on issues and what captures the primary voters attention and ultimately the general electorate population to win the White House, not some opinion or hypothetical match up before anybody has a chance to run and show what they got.
Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown were the guys to beat in the Democrat Primaries in 1992 according to polling data, Bill Clinton was down near the middle of the pack and polling data also suggested that George H.W. Bush would be hard to beat as He was praised with high approval for his leadership during the Gulf War
In 1980...many Republican voters still wanted Gerald Ford to run again against Jimmy Carter or at least considered a moderate George Bush a safe bet. They liked Reagan but many pundits & analyst suggested that Reagan was to polarizing and was label another Barry Goldwater type who was sure to lose - Reagan was called nuts, dumb, amicable dunce, intellectual lightweight, gaffe prone and a person people wouldn't want to have his finger on the red nuclear button. Subsequently Reagan was shown to be blown out by Carter in -- once again "Polling data".....some polls had him down as far as 25 points even with Carter polling himself in the low 30's
Even Jimmy Carter himself was a 2% in polling in 1974....The guys who was considered to be the top were Scoop Jackson and the likes of Morris Udall, yeah Udall who?
And we can go on with who were the favorites just to win the Primaries according to "polling data"...ie Rudy Giuliani for 2008, Steve Forbes in 1996
The main point is that until candidates actually run their campaigns and put forth the issues and debate one another, no one knows what is going to happen...everything else is opinion making and means next to nothing and people change their minds once they see people in action, If somebody desires to go over every poll that comes out, then knock yourself out but remember this....it's utter meaningless in the end.
Huh? You mean to tell me these predictions I have for Superbowl 47 aren’t valid?
I hate ANY story claiming Obama is doomed for 2012, or that he’ll be a one term prez. This far out it is simply idiotic to make such speculation. ANYTHING could happen in the next 2 years.
Remember this, just before Pearl Harbor it was assumed that FDR would not win another term. In 1979 it was widely assumed that Ronald Reagan could not possibly beat Jimmah Carter. Who ever heard of Bill Clinton two years before he miraculously became president?
Seriously. It is a waste of time to predict who will be the next president two long years before the election.
“Presidential candidates polling data two years out are historically meaningless!”
No $h!t Sherlock!
I was just making a point to all of these FReepers who run around ,especially PDSers who like to run Palin polling data to prove a point
Johnny Depp / Britney Spears 2012!!!!
I know. Just agreeing with you!
Yep, certain polls are being run out today to see how well “Stop Sarah Week” has done in pulling her down.
Wait a minute...I just read a post by pissant that has over 150 comments saying Sarah Palin has HIGH NEGATIVES.
Did you hear me...HIGH NEGATIVES!
From a Gallup Poll!
Now you tell me to disregard polls this far out??
Maybe you should tell pissant...
Why such a concentrated assault on Sarah Palin *this week*?
Hmmm. Could it be that SARAH PALIN’S ALAKSA debuts *this Sunday* on TLC (a family friendly cable station) and that previously held negative opinions of her instilled by the lamestream might undergo a dramatic reversal?
I'll give a more recent example, in the fall of 1998 George W. Bush was 5% ahead of Al Gore in a Gallup poll, by October 2000 he was... 5% ahead of Al Gore in the Gallup poll. Only after the knee capping DUI report the Thursday before the election did that tighten.
Gore had high negatives through out that limited his up side potential, same as Sarah Palin. It's better to be unknown than to be disliked (Carter 1974). It's not just polling, I know people, lots of them who will NEVER vote for Sarah Palin, their minds are made up. She could run the greatest campaign ever, wouldn't matter.
If she's the nominee I'll vote for her and do my best to talk others into voting for her, but she'll lose.
I expect Obama will be beatable in 2012, I want a conservative against him who can win.
Her negatives are not as high as Reagan’s were two years out.
Two years is a lifetime in politics.
Just keep an open mind. She hasn’t done anything polarizing other than be the victim of the largest media smear in history.
Her numbers are rising, and I agree she has a hill to climb, but it’s not that big. (especially for someone with her political instincts)
Just keep an open mind, and don’t be too surprised when it happens...
So ... without having read the article yet ... I’m guessing you’re pissed because Palin isn’t polling well?
That is pure and utter projecturing! Sarah could run the greatest campaign and some will never vote for her? saved liberals and those who like a women as a President.....please! If you bring out Gore, he was a wooden character that never projected well on TV compared to Bush, I reneged those focus groups.
That is pure and utter projecturing! Sarah could run the greatest campaign and some will never vote for her? saved liberals and those who like a women as a President.....please! If you bring out Gore, he was a wooden character that never projected well on TV compared to Bush, I reneged those focus groups.
Look through the threads pissant starts. He starts at least two “Palin Can’t Win” threads per day. I have repeatedly asked pissant who he would like to see as the nominee in 2012. He has yet to reply. It likely has something to do with his love of everything RINO/establishment including socialism lite.
Nope......polls don’t matter one way or the other, good or bad for Sarah. No one has yet to prove to me in modern times where polling data before anyone actually run a campaign means anything, Mitt has done very little other than fundraising and endorsments and stayed out of the spotlight and yet he is polling very high for no reason.........and I do wish that some here on FR would read these threads instead of commenting
I seem to recall that W polled very well. Certainly he’d locked up the big-name support and plenty of money, very early on.
Not "no reason." He's got good name recognition, is good looking, speaks well, and seems reasonable when he speaks. That's enough, at this point, for him to poll well.
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