Rank | District | Democrat | Seat | Republican | Avg. | Experts | |
1 | LA | 3 | Ravi Sangisetty | Open D | Jeff Landry | 2.2 | Likely R |
2 | NY | 29 | Mathew Zeller | Open D | Tom Reed | 2.2 | Likely R |
3 | TN | 6 | Brett Carter | Open D | Diane Black | 2.2 | Likely R |
4 | AR | 2 | Joyce Elliott | Open D | Tim Griffin | 2.0 | Likely R |
5 | KS | 3 | Stephene Moore | Open D | Kevin Yoder | 1.2 | Leans R |
6 | CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Incumbent D | Cory Gardner | 0.8 | Leans R |
7 | FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Incumbent D | Sandy Adams | 0.8 | Leans R |
8 | IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Incumbent D | Adam Kinzinger | 0.8 | Leans R |
9 | IN | 8 | W. Trent Van Haaften | Open D | Dr. Larry Bucshon | 0.8 | Leans R |
10 | AR | 1 | Chad Causey | Open D | Rick Crawford | 0.7 | Leans R |
11 | MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Incumbent D | Andy Harris | 0.7 | Leans R |
12 | NH | 2 | Annie Kuster | Open D | Charlie Bass | 0.7 | Leans R |
13 | NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Incumbent D | Steve Pearce | 0.7 | Leans R |
14 | OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Incumbent D | Steve Chabot | 0.7 | Leans R |
15 | OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Incumbent D | Steve Stivers | 0.7 | Leans R |
16 | VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Incumbent D | Robert Hurt | 0.7 | Leans R |
17 | WA | 3 | Denny Heck | Open D | Jaime Herrera | 0.7 | Leans R |
18 | MI | 1 | Gary McDowell | Open D | Dr. Daniel Benishek | 0.5 | Toss-Up |
19 | MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Incumbent D | Alan Nunnelee | 0.5 | Toss-Up |
20 | ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Incumbent D | Rick Berg | 0.5 | Toss-Up |
21 | NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Incumbent D | Frank Guinta | 0.5 | Toss-Up |
22 | PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Incumbent D | Lou Barletta | 0.5 | Toss-Up |
23 | TN | 8 | Roy Herron | Open D | Stephen Fincher | 0.5 | Toss-Up |
24 | TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Incumbent D | Bill Flores | 0.5 | Toss-Up |
25 | FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Incumbent D | Daniel Webster | 0.3 | Toss-Up |
26 | MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Incumbent D | Tim Walberg | 0.3 | Toss-Up |
27 | OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Incumbent D | Jim Renacci | 0.3 | Toss-Up |
28 | PA | 7 | Bryan Lentz | Open D | Pat Meehan | 0.3 | Toss-Up |
29 | WI | 7 | Julie Lassa | Open D | Sean Duffy | 0.3 | Toss-Up |
30 | FL | 2 | Allen Boyd | Incumbent D | Steve Southerland | 0.2 | Toss-Up |
31 | IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Incumbent D | Randy Hultgren | 0.2 | Toss-Up |
32 | IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Incumbent D | Todd Young | 0.2 | Toss-Up |
33 | NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Incumbent D | Dr. Joe Heck | 0.2 | Toss-Up |
34 | SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Incumbent D | Mick Mulvaney | 0.2 | Toss-Up |
35 | VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Incumbent D | Scott Rigell | 0.2 | Toss-Up |
36 | AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Incumbent D | Paul Gosar | 0.0 | Toss-Up |
37 | PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Incumbent D | Mike Kelly | 0.0 | Toss-Up |
38 | SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Incumbent D | Kristi Noem | 0.0 | Toss-Up |
39 | AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | Incumbent D | David Schweikert | -0.2 | Toss-Up |
40 | NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Incumbent D | Richard Hanna | -0.2 | Toss-Up |
41 | WV | 1 | Mike Oliverio | Open D | David B. McKinley | -0.2 | Toss-Up |
42 | PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Incumbent D | Tom Marino | -0.3 | Toss-Up |
43 | WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Incumbent D | Reid Ribble | -0.3 | Toss-Up |
44 | AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Incumbent D | Martha Roby | -0.5 | Toss-Up |
45 | CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | Incumbent D | David Harmer | -0.5 | Toss-Up |
46 | GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Incumbent D | Austin Scott | -0.5 | Toss-Up |
47 | NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Incumbent D | Harold Johnson | -0.5 | Toss-Up |
48 | NY | 19 | John Hall | Incumbent D | Nan Hayworth | -0.5 | Toss-Up |
49 | AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Incumbent D | Jesse Kelly | -0.7 | Leans D |
50 | IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Incumbent D | Brad Zaun | -0.7 | Leans D |
51 | MA | 10 | William Keating | Open D | Jeff Perry | -0.7 | Leans D |
52 | PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Incumbent D | Mike Fitzpatrick | -0.7 | Leans D |
53 | TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Incumbent D | Quico Canseco | -0.7 | Leans D |
54 | MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Incumbent D | Vicky Hartzler | -0.8 | Leans D |
55 | NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Incumbent D | Jon Barela | -0.8 | Leans D |
56 | OH | 18 | Zach Space | Incumbent D | Bob Gibbs | -0.8 | Leans D |
57 | VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Incumbent D | Morgan Griffith | -0.8 | Leans D |
58 | PA | 12 | Mark Critz | Incumbent D | Timothy Burns | -1.0 | Leans D |
59 | CO | 3 | John Salazar | Incumbent D | Scott Tipton | -1.0 | Leans D |
60 | ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Incumbent D | Raul Labrador | -1.0 | Leans D |
61 | KY | 6 | Ben Chandler | Incumbent D | Andy Barr | -1.0 | Leans D |
62 | NJ | 3 | John Adler | Incumbent D | Jon Runyan | -1.0 | Leans D |
63 | NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Incumbent D | Randy Altschuler | -1.0 | Leans D |
64 | NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Incumbent D | Chris Gibson | -1.0 | Leans D |
65 | NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Incumbent D | Matt Doheny | -1.0 | Leans D |
66 | OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Incumbent D | Tom Ganley | -1.0 | Leans D |
67 | OR | 5 | Kurt Schrader | Incumbent D | Scott Bruun | -1.0 | Leans D |
68 | IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Incumbent D | Jackie Walorski | -1.2 | Leans D |
69 | TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Incumbent D | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | -1.2 | Leans D |
70 | VA | 11 | Gerald Connolly | Incumbent D | Keith Fimian | -1.2 | Leans D |
71 | CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Incumbent D | Van Tran | -1.3 | Leans D |
72 | FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Incumbent D | Allen West | -1.3 | Leans D |
73 | GA | 2 | Sanford Bishop | Incumbent D | Mike Keown | -1.3 | Leans D |
74 | MI | 9 | Gary Peters | Incumbent D | "Rocky" Raczowski | -1.3 | Leans D |
75 | NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Incumbent D | Mike Grimm | -1.3 | Leans D |
76 | WA | 2 | Rick Larsen | Incumbent D | John Koster | -1.3 | Leans D |
77 | IL | 17 | Phil Hare | Incumbent D | Bobby Schilling | -1.7 | Likely D |
78 | NC | 11 | Heath Shuler | Incumbent D | Jeff Miller | -1.7 | Likely D |
79 | CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Incumbent D | Dan Debicella | -1.8 | Likely D |
80 | IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Incumbent D | Joe Walsh | -1.8 | Likely D |
81 | NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Incumbent D | Ann Marie Buerkle | -1.8 | Likely D |
82 | PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Incumbent D | Keith Rothfus | -1.8 | Likely D |
83 | PA | 17 | Tim Holden | Incumbent D | David Argall | -1.8 | Likely D |
84 | WV | 3 | Nick Rahall | Incumbent D | "Spike" Maynard | -2.0 | Likely D |
85 | CO | 7 | Ed Perlmulter | Incumbent D | Ryan Frazier | -2.2 | Likely D |
86 | CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Incumbent D | Sam Caligiuri | -2.2 | Likely D |
87 | MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Incumbent D | Randy Demmer | -2.3 | Likely D |
We are working on Mike Ross (D-ARK) vs Beth Ann Rankin (R-ARK) - he has someone video tape each of her public appearances
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Beth Anne Rankin Turns Up The Heat on Ross
A statement from Jim Harris, Director of Communications for Beth Anne Rankin for Congress:
Career politician Mike Ross is starting to feel the heat for all the liberal votes he has cast while in Congress. That is why he sent out his myth list Monday. He hopes voters will not go to the record and see that he is not the conservative as he claims.
With the polls showing he has dropped to 49 percent, he is desperate to muddy the waters
Here are the truths to disprove the myths he released:
MYTH: Miss Rankin says Mike Ross has voted for Nancy Pelosi four times, but what she doesnt say is that Nancy Pelosi was unopposed on the Democratic ballot.
TRUTH: The Speaker of the House sets the congressional agenda for the next two years. The question of who is elected Speaker determines if liberal or conservative legislation gets brought up for votes.
Mike Ross can try to run away from his four votes to make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House by saying there wasnt another Democrat on the ballot. That does not change the fact that Ross voted for Pelosi. It does not change the fact that voting for Ross in November is giving Pelosi another vote for Speaker in January 2011. A vote for Mike Ross is a vote for Nancy Pelosi.
Look at the issues that are important to Arkansans:
Abortion: The National Right to Life Committee rating on Pelosi is zero.
Gay rights: Pelosi opposes a constitutional amendment defining marriage as one-man-one-woman and votes 100 percent of the time with the Human Rights Campaign, the largest national gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender organization.
Illegal immigration: Pelosi opposes building a fence along the border with Mexico and supports amnesty for illegal aliens.
Gun control: Pelosi has an F grade from the National Rifle Association.
Pro-family: The Christian Coalition says Pelosi votes pro-family only 8 percent of the time.
Taxes: Pelosi doesnt just want the Bush Tax Cuts to expire; she supports repeal of those tax cuts.
If re-elected, Ross will once again vote to put Pelosi in charge of setting the agenda for the House of Representatives. A vote for Ross is a vote for Pelosi.
MYTH: Miss Rankin says Mike Ross has voted with his party 96% of the time, but what she doesnt say is these totals include procedural votes, such as quorum calls and motions to adjourn, recess or to approve the congressional record.
TRUTH: What Beth Anne really says and Ross ought to know this since he has someone video tape each of her public appearances is that from the start of the current Congress until the day she filed, Ross voted with Pelosi 94.6 percent of the time. That is a matter of public record. Ross says he is a conservative Democrat but votes that often with Pelosi. He talks the conservative talk, but doesnt walk the conservative walk.
MYTH: Miss Rankin says Mike Ross is not a fiscal conservative, despite local, state and national headlines and a voting record to the contrary.
TRUTH: Does he mean votes like the one of April 29, 2009? Ross voted for the original Obama budget. Ross was one of 223 Democrats who voted to pass Senate Concurrent Resolution 13 and all the fiscal irresponsibility it contained.
Maybe he means the Jan. 28, 2009 vote for the stimulus bill where Democrats promised it would keep the national unemployment level under 8 percent. It has since gone above 10 percent and currently is 9.7 percent. The stimulus bill is a failure that ran up the federal debt. Ross voted for the stimulus bill. There are still millions of dollars provided in that bill that are unspent. Expect Ross and other Democrats to be handing that money out in the next seven weeks to try and buy votes with our own tax dollars.
The Blue Dog congressman should be guarding the federal budget, but he didnt bark while the federal debt swelled to a record $13.3 trillion the real source of our economic woes. You dont keep a dog who doesnt bark to alert you to danger. It is time for the voters to send Ross back to Prescott to live under the laws he has voted on the last 10 years.
Check this out:
NC-4, held by (D) David Price (Sociology professor from Duke) is TIED with (R) BJ Lawson!
I have not seen a single BJ Lawson sign or sticker, so this poll probably captures the anti-Dem incumbent feeling pretty well.
I am a bit surprised about ND. I thought Berg was about 10 points ahead of Pomeroy. Yet this race is considered a toss-up?+
Wow. GREAT post. Thanks for all that fine and dandy information.
This country will Remember November!
(That would make a good tag.)
Christian Students Suspended for Krispy Kreme Doughnuts with Bible Verses
Students suspended for Bible verses on donuts? Give me a break! The donuts were given to students as well as teachers... I guess if the donuts had quotes from the KORAN, this would have been okay...
Fallout after risque cheer controversy (Cheerleader fired)
The story of the cheerleader is about a six old girl. The little girl was tossed from the cheerleader squad because the parents complained about a risque cheer. Instead of getting rid of risque cheer, the group got rid of the little girl. Maybe this is a group of pedophiles going after little girls in Michigan...
KHR doesn’t list Michael Barone as a consultant or contributor. Why isn’t he?
I can’t figure out the KHR site well enough (don’t have time to wade through it right now) to figure out who the 3 (?) or 4 (?) pubs are that KHR now believes may be in trouble.
The well-respected Cook Political Report announced yesterday that they are moving IL-17 into the “toss up” category:
Two months ago, the Cook Political Report made its first change to the race, changing it from “Safe Democrat” to “Likely Democrat”. Just a couple weeks ago, they changed it again to “Leans Democrat” Now they’ve changed it a third time to “Toss-Up”.
I think it’s safe to say the “experts” are behind the curve by several weeks. They say IL-11 is “Leans Republican” now when the GOP challenger has been ahead by double-digits for months? The logical conclusion I’d draw is “Likely Republican”.
Probably every race on this list has outdated numbers, and the correct trend is one factor to the right (something rated “Safe Democrat” is actually “Likely Democrat”, something rated “Leans Republican” is actually “Likely Republican”, and so on)
Not trying to overly optimistic for the GOP, just realistic given the data out there.
Exellent post bump.
you need to look at the David Price/BJ Lawson race. It is just as close as the Heath Shuler race.
A mixed week. The "experts" moved forward, but the people did not.
Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP House Seats P10 |
GOP House Seats EV |
GOP House Seats P90 |
Probability of 218 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-Apr-10 | 199 | 204.77 | 210 | 0.18% | 25 |
16-Apr-10 | 199 | 205.09 | 211 | 0.22% | 26 |
22-Apr-10 | 200 | 205.28 | 211 | 0.37% | 26 |
01-May-10 | 201 | 206.22 | 212 | 0.73% | 27 |
08-May-10 | 201 | 206.33 | 212 | 0.66% | 27 |
19-Jun-10 | 203 | 208.44 | 214 | 2.29% | 29 |
10-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.43% | 29 |
17-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.34% | 29 |
24-Jul-10 | 203 | 209.25 | 215 | 3.37% | 30 |
31-Jul-10 | 203 | 209.06 | 215 | 2.96% | 30 |
07-Aug-10 | 203 | 209.15 | 215 | 3.11% | 30 |
14-Aug-10 | 204 | 209.33 | 215 | 3.33% | 30 |
21-Aug-10 | 204 | 209.86 | 216 | 4.47% | 30 |
28-Aug-10 | 205 | 210.91 | 217 | 7.03% | 31 |
04-Sep-10 | 206 | 211.88 | 218 | 10.45% | 32 |
11-Sep-10 | 208 | 213.67 | 220 | 20.31% | 34 |
18-Sep-10 | 208 | 214.1 | 220 | 23.14% | 35 |
Alternatively, below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken.
This week, the polls cover 72% of the 99 races being tracked. 71 polls are being used out of 79 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 90%.
Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP House Seats P10 |
GOP House Seats EV |
GOP House Seats P90 |
Probability of 218 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
31-Jul-10 | 207 | 211.93 | 217 | 8.43% | 32 |
07-Aug-10 | 205 | 210.66 | 216 | 4.51% | 31 |
14-Aug-10 | 205 | 210.56 | 216 | 4.44% | 31 |
21-Aug-10 | 208 | 212.88 | 218 | 11.83% | 33 |
28-Aug-10 | 211 | 216.78 | 220 | 42.58% | 37 |
04-Sep-10 | 213 | 217.53 | 222 | 50.40% | 38 |
11-Sep-10 | 214 | 219.05 | 224 | 66.39% | 40 |
18-Sep-10 | 214 | 218.54 | 223 | 62.30% | 39 |
And in the Senate...
Ohio moves safely towards the GOP as Rob Portman gained another 3% on Lee Fisher. This puts Ohio beyond the margin of error for Republicans. Both Harry Reid and Sharron Angle gained 3% in the polls, continuing to maintain a tie. Republican Ken Buck gained another 1% on incumbent Michael Bennett in Colorado. Both candidates in Pennsylvania gained this week, but Pat Toomey gains 2% more than Joe Sestak. This puts Pennsylvania outside the margin of error, making it SAFE for the Republican. Wisconsin also moved closer to Republicans with Ron Johnson adding to his lead over Russ Feingold.
Benefitting the Democrats this week was Washington state, where incumbent Patty Murray gained significantly on Dino Rossi and retaking the lead. And in Delaware, Christine O'Donnell's win over Mike Castle has propelled Democrat Chris Coons to the lead, switching this race from beyond the margin of error for Republicans to beyond the margin of error for Democrats. Finally, Paul Hodes of New Hampshire gained 6% in the polls against Kelly Ayotte, moving the state back into the margin of error.
Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.
The net effect of this week is an expected two seat reduction of gain for Republicans, putting control of the Senate out of reach again.
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP Senate Seats P10 |
GOP Senate Seats EV |
GOP Senate Seats P90 |
Probability of 51 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
17-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.84 | 50 | 6.95% | 7 |
24-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.95 | 50 | 7.69% | 7 |
31-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.18 | 50 | 1.29% | 7 |
07-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.13 | 50 | 1.46% | 7 |
14-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.46 | 50 | 2.92% | 7 |
21-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.69 | 50 | 3.05% | 7 |
28-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.86 | 50 | 5.88% | 7 |
04-Sep-10 | 48 | 49.21 | 51 | 14.19% | 8 |
11-Sep-10 | 49 | 50.08 | 52 | 37.67% | 9 |
18-Sep-10 | 48 | 48.95 | 50 | 3.67% | 7 |
Based on this week's movements, the challenge has been met and the race is on.
-PJ
What about the Senate?
And what would it take to overturn an ObamaNazi veto WHEN, not if, these guys
1) Make the "Bush" tax cuts permant
2) Overturn CommieCare
Week | Sabato | CQP | EP.Com | Cook | Rothenberg | RCP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-May-10 | 205.13 | 202.9 | 206.85 | 206.76 | 203.1 | 213.38 |
19-Jun-10 | 207.51 | 205.63 | 210.49 | 207.64 | 203.35 | 216.33 |
10-Jul-10 | 207.87 | 205.64 | 209.4 | 208.16 | 203.99 | 214.37 |
17-Jul-10 | 207.4 | 205.12 | 210.12 | 207.63 | 203.51 | 213.9 |
24-Jul-10 | 207.28 | 205.26 | 210.33 | 208.03 | 207.38 | 213.83 |
31-Jul-10 | 206.71 | 204.67 | 211.75 | 208.78 | 207.22 | 215.1 |
07-Aug-10 | 206.75 | 204.65 | 212 | 208.77 | 207.19 | 215.35 |
14-Aug-10 | 206.78 | 204.81 | 212.86 | 208.97 | 207.23 | 215.49 |
21-Aug-10 | 206.7 | 204.78 | 213.14 | 210.76 | 207.19 | 216.42 |
28-Aug-10 | 206.75 | 208.66 | 214.13 | 210.74 | 207.62 | 217.58 |
04-Sep-10 | 210.14 | 208.68 | 215.4 | 211.8 | 207.53 | 218.1 |
11-Sep-10 | 211.15 | 209.09 | 216.53 | 214.14 | 210.88 | 220.32 |
18-Sep-10 | 211.34 | 209.23 | 217.05 | 214.66 | 211.98 | 220.5 |
-PJ
I wish there was more hype about Jacob Turk running against Emanuel Cleaver in Missouri. I realize there’s not much hope but it sure would make me happy to see Rev. Cleaver go away.
Just personal observation—
NY 23 : Got a knock on the door from two Bill Owens “volunteers” today, told them that if they or their campaign had actually read the e-mail I sent to Owens months ago, they would not have put me on their list of potential supporters (that’s who they said they were stopping out to “chat” with) because I had specifically said if he voted for Obamacare no one in my extended family would ever even consider voting for him. They admitted they were hearing a lot of this type of thing! Their body language told me they didn’t like what they were hearing today.
NY 25: Dan Maffei’s commercials are awful. The one’s he is actually in he looks like a clueless fat faced kid with a dumb look on his face. He talks about policies he supports that are not popular around here. It’s like free campaign commercials for his opponent. He didn’t win by much the last time around, I don’t believe.
Living on the boarder of NY 23 and 25 (I vote in 23), I don’t sense any enthusiasm for either Dem, both Republican candidates can win if they get out there and push fiscally conservative ideas. We don’t like Obamacare, bailouts or cap and trade.
In NY 23 people like to see their candidate face to face and Bill Owens has been attemting to cultivate that support with face to face or seregate visits. Maffei has pockets of democrats throughout Onondaga county that are very loyal. If the Republican candidates get out there, get seen, and point out the distinct differences in policy, they will win.
*
Thanks InterceptPoint.
This is a very interesting look at the “trees.”
Everyone remember: the “forest” is what happens after we win the House. Elected Republicans have to be strong emotionally to resist Junior High Peer Pressure to suck up to liberal- and media-created issues.
They will all be tested. Are they going to go with “the popular cool guy” (whatever issue the liberals and their media create) or stand up for the values that got them into these cool desks?????? Getting the “trees” in place is far easier than having them behave as one strong forest.
(I will stop now before I throw in a third unrelated analogy)
It's "our" index.