Key House Races Update - We've Added WV-03 and the GOP Gains continue

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 18 September 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

We've added another Vulnerable Dem to our Master List: WV-03

That brings our list to 99 seats. We now have 87 Vulnerable Democrats and 12 pretty safe Republicans on out list.

This weeks news:

It was a pretty average week for our six "Experts" with a total of 23 upgrades to the races on the KHR Master List but the Dems managed to get just 3 of those 23.

We've added the Freedom's Lighthouse to our list of Pickup Projections and they currently are predicing a 49 seat pickup.

We are now listing all the Pickup Projections we can find on the Home Page at KHR.

And we've revised our list of the latest Polls. We now list all of our polls sorted by both District and the KHR Posting Date. You can find those Polls HERE.

We've also added a link on the KHR Home page to our Tier 2 List. That's the list of Districts that are showing some movement in the polls and with our 6 "Experts". We've promoted 8 of these races to the Master List in the last few weeks.

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

• There were a total of 23 updates this week to the 99 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
• 20 were favorable to the Republicans
• 3 were favorable to the Democrats

Those changes moved our index to -.160 from last weeks -.158.

Yikes you say - just like last week. How can we make such a small pickup with all those positive changes for the Republicans????

The answer is that we've added another Vulnerable Dem to our list that is, at this point, still favored to hold on to his seat. This skews are index. We knew that would happen when we add new Dems to the list. But we've added one more target and that is what counts.

September 18: Hawaii Freepers - Go vote for Charles Djou. Show the power of the Tea Party.

[Lexinom]

*

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks InterceptPoint.

[SevenMinusOne]

Here's another big problem I'm seeing as we get closer to Nov. What the hell is the GOP running on? Why is there not a constant message hammering the 10% unemployment numbers. Hammering the highest poverty numbers we've seen in decades, why isn't there a clear message that National Health care will be reversed come hell or highwater??

There simply is NO message once again coming out of the GOP/RNC. Pathetic.

Unemployment, housing defaults, poverty rates numbers should be, being highlighted daily be an effective and premise setting ad campaign. Yet it is not...The GOP wins by nationalizing local elections. We aren't doing that as is.

[Yaelle]

This is a very interesting look at the “trees.”

Everyone remember: the “forest” is what happens after we win the House. Elected Republicans have to be strong emotionally to resist Junior High Peer Pressure to suck up to liberal- and media-created issues.

They will all be tested. Are they going to go with “the popular cool guy” (whatever issue the liberals and their media create) or stand up for the values that got them into these cool desks?????? Getting the “trees” in place is far easier than having them behave as one strong forest.

(I will stop now before I throw in a third unrelated analogy)

[fortheDeclaration]

Yes, I do agree with you on that, that was the 'brillant' view of the RNC elites, who said they were not going to nationalize the elections.

However, the Teaparty has made it a national referendum on both Parties, hence the heavy RINO losses as well.

This election is not about the GOP, it is about the American People.

[fortheDeclaration]

We are going to win far more then the low 30 seats!

[fortheDeclaration]

That is true.

[EvilOverlord]

What the hell is the GOP

I think the GOP should be able to run on lower taxes as one plank, but the message has to be clear. Simply 'lower taxes' or 'Democrats want to tax' doesn't really have a personal message. It's boring.

It needs to be personal. I think we can easily target taxes on savings accounts and dividends.

'Why should the government have it's hand in our savings accounts? We should be able to keep all the interest on our money in the bank. Taxes on interest hurt working people, and it punishes those who want to save money for vacations or college. Get the government out of our bank accounts!'.

Similar with dividends. Emphasize that older people who are using 'safe' income-generating investments in their 401K plans are losing money because the government reaches in and takes what's ours. Government out of my mutual funds!

[Hush44]

I dont’t think even Murphy believes the Siena poll for NY20, he made a comment that the race ‘will be close”

Chris does need to get his name out there tho & donations will help.

any FReepers that can adopt a district, NY20 ‘is’ a contender. This CD was red for decades. Help us turn it back to red...

Chris Gibson for Congress
http://www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO_SzyqjbG4

FRegards...Kate

[chilltherats]

The GOP has been a shambles for 10 years, longer than that at the state level in many, many states.

As you say, they should be shouting about the things you listed from every rooftop. Instead? Crickets.

The pubs nearly always manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They’ll do it again. Yet think for a minute how the rats would be pressing this advantage if the ball was in their court. It makes me want to rip my hair out. Sometimes it’s all I can do to not get on a plane, go seek these people out, and beat them senseless one by one. Oh. Wait. They’re already senseless.

[chilltherats]

The question I was responding to was where is a list of several races where the poster’s money would do the most good. Dick has a list of about 10 or so on his site with some analysis and bio on each candidate.

I’m not interested in proprietary concerns.

[mlo]

"This skews are index."

It's "our" index.

[cookcounty]

Showing Ed Permutter (D-COLO-7) up 2.2, but the latest poll I’ve seen has Ryan Frazier (R) up 1. There’s a lot of energy in his campaign.

[presently no screen name]

Have one member who is trying to get more support for Jessie Kelly in AZ .....Need to get all the R’s in this state we can to counter McCain.

THANK YOU!! They'll be doing it for the country, not just AZ. However, still wish they would vote out McCain.

[presently no screen name]

There simply is NO message once again coming out of the GOP/RNC. Pathetic.

I agree. The establishment, MIA. That's why we are getting rid of these RINO's.

[InterceptPoint]

It's "our" index.

Don't you just hate it when you make a silly mistake? Thanks for the heads-up, I fixed it on KHR but, alas, there is still no editing function on good old FR.

[S.O.L.]

MSF BU

I’m in the MA 10th and volunteering for Jeff Perry. On what are you basing it being a toss up?

[colorado tanker]

This appears to be a VERY conservative analysis.

Markey should be Likely R. Stick a fork in her, she's done.

Salazar should be Leans R. He's down 10 in a recent poll.

Perlmutter was Leans D, but a recent poll showed that had moved to Tossup.

If I were a Dem I'd be ill and not wanting to read any news updates.

[CPT Clay]

Here are the NRCC rankings on amount of $ these candidates have raised.

On the Radar:

Fran Becker (NY-04)
Mike Fallon (CO-01)
Blake Farenthold (TX-27)
Jason Levesque (ME-02)
Anna Little (NJ-06)
Janet Peckinpaugh (CT-02)
George Phillips (NY-22)
Morgan Philpot (UT-02)
Andy Vidak (CA-20)
Tom Watson (CA-23)

Contender:

Dee Adcock (PA-13)
Ann Marie Buerkle (NY-25)
Tim Burns (PA-12)
Sam Caligiuri (CT-05)
Scott DesJarlais (TN-04)
Rich Iott (OH-09)
Bill Johnson (OH-06)
Raul Labrador (ID-01)
Todd Lally (KY-03)
Tom Marino (PA-10)
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-02)
Keith Rothfus (PA-04)
Brad Zaun (IA-03)

[CPT Clay]

they should be shouting about the things you listed from every rooftop. Instead? Crickets.

if they did, would anybody here it? Today’s media can pretty well spike a story.