Key House Races Update - We've Added WV-03 and the GOP Gains continue

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 18 September 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

We've added another Vulnerable Dem to our Master List: WV-03

That brings our list to 99 seats. We now have 87 Vulnerable Democrats and 12 pretty safe Republicans on out list.

This weeks news:

It was a pretty average week for our six "Experts" with a total of 23 upgrades to the races on the KHR Master List but the Dems managed to get just 3 of those 23.

We've added the Freedom's Lighthouse to our list of Pickup Projections and they currently are predicing a 49 seat pickup.

We are now listing all the Pickup Projections we can find on the Home Page at KHR.

And we've revised our list of the latest Polls. We now list all of our polls sorted by both District and the KHR Posting Date. You can find those Polls HERE.

We've also added a link on the KHR Home page to our Tier 2 List. That's the list of Districts that are showing some movement in the polls and with our 6 "Experts". We've promoted 8 of these races to the Master List in the last few weeks.

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

• There were a total of 23 updates this week to the 99 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
• 20 were favorable to the Republicans
• 3 were favorable to the Democrats

Those changes moved our index to -.160 from last weeks -.158.

Yikes you say - just like last week. How can we make such a small pickup with all those positive changes for the Republicans????

The answer is that we've added another Vulnerable Dem to our list that is, at this point, still favored to hold on to his seat. This skews are index. We knew that would happen when we add new Dems to the list. But we've added one more target and that is what counts.

September 18: Hawaii Freepers - Go vote for Charles Djou. Show the power of the Tea Party.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Exellent post bump.

[jern]

you need to look at the David Price/BJ Lawson race. It is just as close as the Heath Shuler race.

[Recon Dad]

Thanks, I will look forward to seeing it.

Please factor into any projections the fact that my wife and I will soon be there to vote for Pantano....I’m sure we will put him over the top.

[Political Junkie Too]

Apologies for the late post. I was away for much of the day.

A mixed week. The "experts" moved forward, but the people did not.

Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP House Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP House Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP House Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 218” – The probability associated with value 218 (the House majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded down.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain
09-Apr-10	199	204.77	210	0.18%	25
16-Apr-10	199	205.09	211	0.22%	26
22-Apr-10	200	205.28	211	0.37%	26
01-May-10	201	206.22	212	0.73%	27
08-May-10	201	206.33	212	0.66%	27
19-Jun-10	203	208.44	214	2.29%	29
10-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.43%	29
17-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.34%	29
24-Jul-10	203	209.25	215	3.37%	30
31-Jul-10	203	209.06	215	2.96%	30
07-Aug-10	203	209.15	215	3.11%	30
14-Aug-10	204	209.33	215	3.33%	30
21-Aug-10	204	209.86	216	4.47%	30
28-Aug-10	205	210.91	217	7.03%	31
04-Sep-10	206	211.88	218	10.45%	32
11-Sep-10	208	213.67	220	20.31%	34
18-Sep-10	208	214.1	220	23.14%	35

Alternatively, below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken.

This week, the polls cover 72% of the 99 races being tracked. 71 polls are being used out of 79 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 90%.

Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP House Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP House Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP House Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 218” – The probability associated with value 218 (the House majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded down.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain
31-Jul-10	207	211.93	217	8.43%	32
07-Aug-10	205	210.66	216	4.51%	31
14-Aug-10	205	210.56	216	4.44%	31
21-Aug-10	208	212.88	218	11.83%	33
28-Aug-10	211	216.78	220	42.58%	37
04-Sep-10	213	217.53	222	50.40%	38
11-Sep-10	214	219.05	224	66.39%	40
18-Sep-10	214	218.54	223	62.30%	39

And in the Senate...

Ohio moves safely towards the GOP as Rob Portman gained another 3% on Lee Fisher. This puts Ohio beyond the margin of error for Republicans. Both Harry Reid and Sharron Angle gained 3% in the polls, continuing to maintain a tie. Republican Ken Buck gained another 1% on incumbent Michael Bennett in Colorado. Both candidates in Pennsylvania gained this week, but Pat Toomey gains 2% more than Joe Sestak. This puts Pennsylvania outside the margin of error, making it SAFE for the Republican. Wisconsin also moved closer to Republicans with Ron Johnson adding to his lead over Russ Feingold.

Benefitting the Democrats this week was Washington state, where incumbent Patty Murray gained significantly on Dino Rossi and retaking the lead. And in Delaware, Christine O'Donnell's win over Mike Castle has propelled Democrat Chris Coons to the lead, switching this race from beyond the margin of error for Republicans to beyond the margin of error for Democrats. Finally, Paul Hodes of New Hampshire gained 6% in the polls against Kelly Ayotte, moving the state back into the margin of error.

Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.

• Alaska 1: No poll (R +6%)
• California 1: No poll (R +1%)
• Colorado 2: +1% (R +4%)
• Delaware 1: -22% (R - 11%) - drops out of the margin of error
• New Hampshire 1: -6% (R +7%) - moves within the margin of error
• Illinois 2: No poll (R +2%)
• Nevada 2: +0% (R +0%)
• Ohio 2: +3% (R +8%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Pennsylvania 2: +2% (R +8%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Washington 2: -7% (R -5%)
• West Virginia 1: No poll (R - 5%)
• Wisconsin 1: +6% (R +7%)

The net effect of this week is an expected two seat reduction of gain for Republicans, putting control of the Senate out of reach again.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (41), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
17-Jul-10	47	48.84	50	6.95%	7
24-Jul-10	47	48.95	50	7.69%	7
31-Jul-10	47	48.18	50	1.29%	7
07-Aug-10	47	48.13	50	1.46%	7
14-Aug-10	47	48.46	50	2.92%	7
21-Aug-10	47	48.69	50	3.05%	7
28-Aug-10	47	48.86	50	5.88%	7
04-Sep-10	48	49.21	51	14.19%	8
11-Sep-10	49	50.08	52	37.67%	9
18-Sep-10	48	48.95	50	3.67%	7

Based on this week's movements, the challenge has been met and the race is on.

-PJ

[Jim W N]

Bottom line, if leaning R's and D's go that way and toss-up goes, say, 50-50, what would the new total count be in the House?

What about the Senate?

And what would it take to overturn an ObamaNazi veto WHEN, not if, these guys

1) Make the "Bush" tax cuts permant
2) Overturn CommieCare

[Political Junkie Too]

What about the Senate?

See my post 64, the one just before yours.

-PJ

[Cheerio]

The huge Tsunami is going to slam the Dems on November 2nd, and the whining lamentations from PMSNBC, cBS, CNN, NBC will be fun to watch. ;-)

Do you think the major state run media outlets have teams already looking at how they can spin the news late on Nov 2 and early Nov 3?

I just hope the conservatives (and GOP) can overcome all the cheating that will be taking place, and all the follow on lawsuits - e.g. Frankenstein-like.

[Political Junkie Too]

This table is a breakout of each expert's trend of assessments.

Week	Sabato	CQP	EP.Com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP
08-May-10	205.13	202.9	206.85	206.76	203.1	213.38
19-Jun-10	207.51	205.63	210.49	207.64	203.35	216.33
10-Jul-10	207.87	205.64	209.4	208.16	203.99	214.37
17-Jul-10	207.4	205.12	210.12	207.63	203.51	213.9
24-Jul-10	207.28	205.26	210.33	208.03	207.38	213.83
31-Jul-10	206.71	204.67	211.75	208.78	207.22	215.1
07-Aug-10	206.75	204.65	212	208.77	207.19	215.35
14-Aug-10	206.78	204.81	212.86	208.97	207.23	215.49
21-Aug-10	206.7	204.78	213.14	210.76	207.19	216.42
28-Aug-10	206.75	208.66	214.13	210.74	207.62	217.58
04-Sep-10	210.14	208.68	215.4	211.8	207.53	218.1
11-Sep-10	211.15	209.09	216.53	214.14	210.88	220.32
18-Sep-10	211.34	209.23	217.05	214.66	211.98	220.5

-PJ

[CPT Clay]

About time Arkansas joined the rest of the republican south.

I agree that Mike Ross is vulnerable. I looked at Open Secrets.org to see who was supporting him and who was supporting Rankin. Mike has 19 donors of 10k or more and Rankin only has one. I sent an e-mail to Huckabee stating how disapointed I was that HuckPack had only contributed 1000 dollars.

If races like this can make the list, the dem strategy of walling off their 40 most competetive candidates will be moot. They will just lose the house in 50 other places.

[potlatch]

[20 were favorable to the Republicans]

How great is that!! Thanks IP.

[CPT Clay]

I’m watching alot of the Races that have the potiential to make the Tier 2 list. NC 07 is one of those with a likely D from Cook and a Likely D from RCP. When one of the “experts” moves the race to Leans D it will be on the Tier 2 list. When a second “expert” declares Lean D it moves to the KHR List.

[gleeaikin]

The November outcome has many unknowns. To what extent will Dems get out their vote? Will moderates and independents who helped give Obama his landslide stay home, or will they be so freaked out by the Tea Party people that they will vote in droves? Will the Bush tax cuts expire, will they be saved, or will only the middle class tax cuts be saved? Some TP candidates are calling for getting rid of Social Security. Where would a lot of people be if they had done that during the Bush years and everyone had put their money in the stock market and housing? How many remember that possibility with a shudder? Lots of questions there, November will certainly be an interesting month.

I wish I could see the chart at the top with Republicans indicated as TP or RHINO, or in between.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[samiam1972]

I wish there was more hype about Jacob Turk running against Emanuel Cleaver in Missouri. I realize there’s not much hope but it sure would make me happy to see Rev. Cleaver go away.

[uscabjd]

So what does this mean in terms of likely pick-ups if the election were held today?

[SevenMinusOne]

There are 48 Dems who are rated Toss Up or better from a Republican perspective

That is persuming we win EVERY race rated a toss-up? Not going to happen. No one party wins every toss-up race. That is also presuming we don't lose any seats. 2-4 seems most possible.

The MO is mostly in our direction, so that is a big plus. With that said, with all the talk going on about a GOP wave....when our own side shows only 48 currently in the toss-up or better range......Just lets us know we are still a long shot from taking back the House.

[fortheDeclaration]

What part about PREDICTING don't you understand?

We've added the Freedom's Lighthouse to our list of Pickup Projections and they currently are predicting a 49 seat pickup.

[fortheDeclaration]

Republican Pickup Projections

Dick Morris 60-80
Freedom’s Lighthouse 49
Sabato 47
NYT-Silver 46
Cook 40
KHR 40
EP 38
Rothenberg 37-42
CQ Politics 36

We Need 39 to Win

[Tzimisce]

Hope Alan Grayson CRIES when they throw him out of office!!!

[TheDailyChange]

For sure, what a PATHETIC JOKE!!!!