Posted on 07/20/2010 8:23:21 PM PDT by Maelstorm
Not a typo.
I've been harping on my 1994-is-roughly-the-median-result for Republicans this cycle theme for most of the year. The latest SurveyUSA poll of Virginia's Fifth Congressional is more than consistent with this theory. SurveyUSA shows Republican Rob Hurt leading Freshman Democrat Tom Perriello by an astonishing 58%-35% margin.
Now, Perriello was something of a surprise winner in 2008, and it was assumed that he'd have a tough race. But his district is "only" R+5, Obama almost carried it, and it is much more heavily Democratic at the local level. There are 41 Democrats in districts with more Republican PVIs. This, of course, begs the question of what their polling looks like. I'm guessing that, generally speaking, it isn't pretty.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I’m on the other side of the Potomac (and a bit north) in Columbia, MD. My “Representative” is Elijah Cummings...so if you’re in Moran’s district, I sympathize.
Cummings could murder 12 children on stage and still win re-election.
I don’t see anybody beating Mr. Peepers (Rick Boucher, D-9th). Boucher’s fairly conservative as Rats go these days, he’s brought a lot of pork home to southwestern Virginia, they love him in the New River Valley triangle (Christiansburg/Blacksburg/Radford), and even though it’s a very conservative place, there’s still a strong Democratic streak running through the district thanks to it being coal country and having a significant United Mine Workers presence.
}:-)4
Perriello campaigned as a centrist in ‘08, but has voted with 0bama on every significant issue. He’s one of the targets here in VA and will have a hard time getting traction the rest of the way. This is welcome news.
The fact Goode lost in '08 was devastating. He's a strong conservative with no fear of speaking his mind.
There is a Tsunami comming, I am glad it is showing up in the polls.
Right, and Goode has been a democrat AND an independent prior to the GOP. He’s a rogue who independent minded voters respect — lightly informed or otherwise.
Just the kind of under the radar races that will make the Tsunami even larger.
http://www.starparkerforcongress.com/
http://roymorales.com/
http://www.brodenforcongress.com/Donate.asp
>Yeah, but you wouldnt expect Liberal Loon Perriello to be down by 23.<
You forget that this district was home to Virgil Goode, one of the most conservative individuals in Congress. Little Tommy was a stealth candidate, and you won’t see the people of this district fooled again.
Blacksburg, isnt that a college town?
It is, home of Virginia Tech. Radford also has Radford University, a smaller school.
}:-)4
Whatsa Hokie?
In 2008 Obama won in Fairfax County 60.1% to 38.9% picking up a cushion of 110,000 votes. In 2004, Kerry won in Fairfax, the first time a Dem had done that in 40 years. The demographics of the county are rapidly changing. For example, 28% are foreign born, up from 24.5% in 2000. The white population has experienced a slight decline with the Hispanic and Asian numbers increasing siginicantly over the last 20 years.
Has a campaign site link for Hurt been posted?
McDonnell won Scott and Moran’s seats?
EXCLUSIVE: More facts emerge about corruption and mismangement at Virginia State Board of Elections
Is there fraud here as well as what Adams relates?
If Hurt starts slipping in polls, I’ll help more. But I don’t like him enough to campaign hard for him. That’s OK; he has a lot of RINO friends greasing the skids.
No, he didn't carry the 3rd and the 8th.
Thanks Impy!
I didn’t think so. Thanks.
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