U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Surge Past Expectations To All-Time High

The Business Insider ^ | 4-19-2010 | Vincent Fernando, CFA

[blam]

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Surge Past Expectations To All-Time High

Vincent Fernando, CFA
Apr. 19, 2010, 10:03 AM

U.S. leading economic indicators for March rose +1.4% vs. +1.1% expected.

Conference Board:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.4 percent in March, following a 0.4 percent gain in February, and a 0.6 percent rise in January. The U.S. LEI is now at its highest level.

Here it is, the all-time high:

[snip]

[AngelesCrestHighway]

[Doulos1]

Barf Alert? Then it must be satire.

[GiovannaNicoletta]

This is about resuscitating Barack Obama after the communist takeover of our healthcare system that he forced on the country.

I don't believe for one minute that the economy is getting better.

[LS]

Well, every place we go to eat, the restaurants are full with waiting lines. Three weeks ago, we went to a very high end steak place and it was full. My wife says that all the Macys-type places have lines and there are people shopping.

Just reporting what I see. Homes are still on the market after two years---but people seem to have money to spend.

[incredulous joe]

I must not think bad thoughts.
I must not think bad thoughts.
I must not think bad thoughts.
I must not think bad thoughts.
I must not think bad thoughts.
I must not think bad thoughts,...

[ExTexasRedhead]

The stores in the Vegas casinos were devoid of shoppers about a month ago. The casinos in Tahoe and Reno are three-fourths empty. We saw sales signs everywhere.

A month ago we were in Monterey/Carmel and a lot of familiar stores are closed. Restaurants that we used to stand in line to get in are empty; no wait and parking out front.

A local huge mall that was in the process of being built is now winterized and all building halted.

Gonna be a need for moving vans in DC come November 2nd and then the fumigation teams can try to remove the stench.

Things are booming where? In DC where Zero is hiring more thugs?

[ontap]

There is no recovery when unemployment is at 9+%

[Voter62vb]

Scott, I have to concur with your observations from the area, as well as, what i’m seeing from sales and shipping.

Yes, the world was ending at 5% unemployment back then.

[qwertypie]

People are acting like the US future is a mystery. It isn’t. With a failed real estate situation and bad bank loans still on the books, we’re Japan 1993. Stimulus packages and promising recoveries one after another has kept it in malaise since then. Doing all the wrong things doesn’t magically bring things back. The US is screwed up fundamentally and their isn’t any yellow brick road that leads the stupid to prosperity without a new brain.

[ExTexasRedhead]

I have a friend in the Mid West whose restaurant has had a 35% drop in business.

[roaddog727]

“Gold, silver, etc, if you’ve already stocked up on lead and brass.”

forget the gold and silver - continue with the lead and brass.... and magazines.....

[LS]

We just got back from PHX and the high-end resort we stayed at was packed. Had a two-hour wait for room service. There were a few merchants closed at Arizona Mills, but the mall was absolutely packed. Ditto Scottsdale Fashion Square, which is VERY high end.

We can cite stats all we want, but I do not see evidence of zillions of out of work people when I go shop or eat. At Lowes yesterday, had to wait in a line to buy a dishwasher. Now, I DO see autos out of business: the Ford dealership is closed, the Chevy dealership has lost 2/3s its inventory. But it's not reflected in smaller-ticket items that I can tell.

[Ingtar]

I’m sure the new revised formula is better for us.

[LS]

Not in Dayton. You can’t get into most of them.

[CCGuy]

All is fine. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

[throwback]

Is there a Lefty boiler room somewhere that just churns out these headlines: “What sounds good to you? I don’t know man. We did one on the housing boom already. Is it time to churn out another unemployment increases less than expected yet? How about Leading Economic Indicators Surge? Cool, I like it. Nobody knows what it means. Nice and vague, but upbeat. OK, send it over”.

[reagan_fanatic]

Wow - I’ll bet the teeming masses of unemployed are cheering their butts off right now!

[JerseyHighlander]

The actual report is here:
http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/onetooth.pdf

Most of the increase came from
a 0.6 hour average workweek increase for manufacturing employees,
however, the Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense
capital goods (mil. 1982 dol.).................. line item in the LEI is down.

The Leading Economic Indicator’s has a clear trendline, if the model is tracking real economic output it is hard to tell.

This is especially true because the The Conference Board LAGGING Economic Index® has now gone increased two months in a row also.

[MrB]

How many $ worth of lead and brass can you carry out of your house vs how may $ worth of silver or gold...

You have to balance your allocation of resources.

I left out the need for “beans and bandaids” as well.
Those need to be balanced in. Any facet of preparedness in which you are weak could kill you.

[himno hero]

and rising in 27 states....