Here are screen grabs from CQPolitics.com. The question of the day is: Can we use these as a definitive starting point to get our list into shape?
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Posted on 03/28/2010 3:42:44 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
I have been thinking for some time that we need a really good list of the House Democrats that we hope to unseat in the 2010 election. Freeper randita has compiled a very nice list that is continuously being updated and I have used that as my primary source. The idea is to get Freeper recommendations on who we should be supporting in primaries and, after the primaries, who we really think can and should win. Given those inputs I will update the chart as necessary.
I've expanded the basic "who's running" to include the kind of data that Larry Sabato uses to evaluate the races. Based on a randita recommendation, I will also add in the Primary dates. I have also recorded the YES or NO vote by the House on the final Obamacare vote. Look for errors and report them if you see them.
Also, to keep the size of the chart down to a reasonable size I have limited the number of Challengers listed to 3. The # column shows how many that are actually showing on randit's list. And I may not have the best ones listed so we need Freeper comments on who the really serious candidates are. And for sure we need to know who the RINOs are.
So I'm soliciting inputs to add to the chart, to correct errors, to identify the best candidates etc. Don't be shy. Let us know what you think.
And lastly, the chart is currently just a .png to solicit help. I will work on filling in the blanks and at some point issue a real table version with live links to the candidates websites which are in fact already entered in the Excel file.
“I’m giving money to candidates who have a chance of unseating a democrat, no matter what state they are in.”
We will do the same...as we did for Scott Brown’s Senate run.
Here are screen grabs from CQPolitics.com. The question of the day is: Can we use these as a definitive starting point to get our list into shape?
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CQ Politics leans left, so I am told, so their tallies of GOP gains may be more conservative than other websites.
Apparently, Greta has folks from CQ on her show and they dis the GOP and spout DEM talking points. That’s what I’ve read form other FReepers.
No problem posting what CQ has, but it would be good to balance it with a right leaning site. Something from Michael Barone would have integrity.
This looks like a conservative leaning site, but I don’t know anything about it - just found it. It seems more optimistic to me than CQ, but not overly so - http://www.electionprojection.com/index.php. It’s important to be realistic and hope, but not count on there being a huge swing. It may take a few election cycles to get the job done, but that’s okay. Democrats think and plan for the long term and we need to start doing it as well.
You’re getting great input for your chart. The input on the best candidates from FReepers is great, esp. when you get two or more agreeing on one candidate.
This is going to be a great resource.
DE is also an open seat as Mike Castle is running for Biden’s Senate seat and has a good shot of winning it. I don’t know who’s running for that seat, but CQ apparently thinks the Dem who is running will pick it up.
here is the website for Dave Argall(R) who is running against Tim Holden(D)in Pa-17
It is http://www.argallforcongress.com/
OMG! I can’t believe I’m hearing those words! See my tagline. I did research and found that she hasn’t campaigned in years. Not sure she even has a campaign fund! GO DENNIS!
TN 6 (Gordon) is also an open seat. CQ has it as a Likely GOP.
After comparing, I believe my list which I mailed you had most of the Toss Ups and Leans DEM on it. It could be that other places which I researched for my list have those Toss Ups as Safe GOP and CQ does not. But I’ll add them anyhow.
On my list, I also had around 10 of the Likely DEM holds. That may reflect CQ’s left leanings that they are optimistic about those seats when others are not.
Definitely, the Toss Ups and Leaners should be a main focus, but as the season wears on, some Toss Ups may move into Safe GOP (and Safe DEM-hope not), some Leaners may move into Toss Ups and some Likelys may move into Leaners. If that trend starts to be obvious, then it will be a good year for the GOP.
Once primaries are held and the folks in the districts know exactly who’s running rather than “generic”, the dust should settle. After June, the picture will be much clearer.
Don’t pay attention to the CQ list of “safe Democrat” seats. There’s well over a dozen vulnerable Democrats on that list. There are less than 150 safe Democrat seats in Congress right now.
Michael Barone is the best, at least IMHO. Does he have anything like the CQPolitics or ElectionProjection summaries? If so Google isn't spotting it easily. But if there is one it would be my choice.
In the meantime I will use the summaries that we have with some judgment.
At this point I have the following on the list that show up on CQPolitics as SAFE DEMOCRAT: FL-2, FL-20, MD-5, MI-1 Bart Stupak),NC-4, NJ-6 and WV-3.
I'm inclined to leave Bart Stupak on the list because I think the bucks are really going to flow in an attempt to punish for his turncoat Obamacare vote.
Opinions on all of this are welcomed.
I don’t know if you all have seen this thread yet, but your input is certainly welcome.
This list and the CQPolitics list from my POST #102 ABOVE look like the best we have as basic references for the vulnerable Dems. Comments on this are welcomed.
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Honestly, if the Dems are still the majority party after November, I just might have to start packing. This country would be far too interested in self-immolation for my tastes, if that is the case.
One more open seat that I found at electionprojection (seems to be more up to date than CQ) is Vic Snyder, AR 2.
EProj also has Sestak-PA 7 as an open seat, but I haven’t seen confirmation that Sestak is resigning from the House. He is running in the DEM primary against Specter and if he should win (doubtful), he WOULD resign his House seat. I don’t know if he’s filed to run in both the Senate and House primaries or if that’s even possible.
Maybe someone can confirm what’s going on there.
I’ll work this evening on updating my list with all the latest information and shoot a copy of it to you.
I’m going to include the “Mod DEM Holds” from EP on my list. I still keep thinking about Scott Brown and Chris Christie and believe that anything is possible.
I wonder when the dems will spin your list as some sort of “threat”.
Right now I'm going through your list and comparing it to the ElectionProjection.com list and the CQPolitics list. I am just adding to the Master List those from your list that are not on the SAFE DEM seats from the reference lists. So I'm skipping a few of yours. Naturally we will have to debate this and revisit our list as time moves on and things become more clear.
Also, I've updated the chart to show the Primary Dates, Dems that are already on the list but are considered SAFE on our two references and are therefor candidates for being deleted from the Master List.
Biggest problem right now is going to be cutting down the list of primary candidates for the 6 or 7 that are running in many of the races to the 1 or 2 that can/should win and are viable candidates in November. We'll probably never get that right but we still need to give it the old college try. For that we need inputs from Freepers-in-the-know who have insight into the local races.
Add LS (Larry Schweikert) to your ping list. He is very knowledgeable about Ohio politics (and politics in general) and would be of help.
Yes, I agree with paring it down at this point. If or as “safe” seats come into play, they can be added back in.
On the list I’m keeping, as I learn more about primary challengers and get FReeper recommendations, I am moving the recommended primary candidate up to the top of the list of challengers and also placing an * in front of their names, so we know they are the ones who have specifically received FReeper kudos. Those can be gradually moved into your slot of best challenger (or however you’re arranging that).
I added LS. And I agree that we need to promote the FR favorites to the first column in my table. I will probably rename it to “FR Favored” or some such at some point in time.
For the record here are the deletions:
FL-2 Alan Boyd
FL-20 Debbie W. Schultz
MD-5 Steny Hoyer
NC-4 David Price
NJ-6 Frank Pallone
OH-6 Charlie Wilson
TN-5 Jim Cooper
WV-3 Nick Rahall II
Also I've had a look at the CQPolitics and ElectionProjection lists to see what they have that we are missing. These are mostly from the leans R, likely R, toss-up and weak-D categories and look like obvious additions that we could make.
AL-2, IL-10 (Mark Kirk's seat), MS-1, NM-2, LA-3, KS-3
For now I'm going to go through the complete thread looking for recommendations and making any changes that make sense. I'll publish an update later today on this thread and perhaps use it to start a new thread. There is still much to do to refine the list and, hopefully, to pick some winning Primary candidates that we can support.
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