Here are screen grabs from CQPolitics.com. The question of the day is: Can we use these as a definitive starting point to get our list into shape?
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Here are screen grabs from CQPolitics.com. The question of the day is: Can we use these as a definitive starting point to get our list into shape?
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DE is also an open seat as Mike Castle is running for Biden’s Senate seat and has a good shot of winning it. I don’t know who’s running for that seat, but CQ apparently thinks the Dem who is running will pick it up.
here is the website for Dave Argall(R) who is running against Tim Holden(D)in Pa-17
It is http://www.argallforcongress.com/
TN 6 (Gordon) is also an open seat. CQ has it as a Likely GOP.
After comparing, I believe my list which I mailed you had most of the Toss Ups and Leans DEM on it. It could be that other places which I researched for my list have those Toss Ups as Safe GOP and CQ does not. But I’ll add them anyhow.
On my list, I also had around 10 of the Likely DEM holds. That may reflect CQ’s left leanings that they are optimistic about those seats when others are not.
Definitely, the Toss Ups and Leaners should be a main focus, but as the season wears on, some Toss Ups may move into Safe GOP (and Safe DEM-hope not), some Leaners may move into Toss Ups and some Likelys may move into Leaners. If that trend starts to be obvious, then it will be a good year for the GOP.
Once primaries are held and the folks in the districts know exactly who’s running rather than “generic”, the dust should settle. After June, the picture will be much clearer.
Don’t pay attention to the CQ list of “safe Democrat” seats. There’s well over a dozen vulnerable Democrats on that list. There are less than 150 safe Democrat seats in Congress right now.