Posted on 11/13/2009 9:55:59 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
This week, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Florida Democrat, told reporters the GOP offers a "back-of-the-hand treatment to women." Later she said two conservative female representatives only serve to further "repulse women." You see, Schultz said on MSNBC, Republicans "don't really get very many women when it comes to elections."
The week before, in Virginia, the Republican gubernatorial candidate won women. And in blue New Jersey, the Republican lost women but won white women by 18 percentage points.
Last year, John McCain won a majority of the white female vote. They sum to more than 25 million women. Democrats, so many forget, have not won a majority of white women since 1964.
Few subjects evoke more wrongheaded conventional wisdom than the gender gap. Consider a more common expression of the same factoid. In Democratic commenter Steve McMahon's words, "the Republican party is becoming, regressing to become, a white male southern party." NPR's Juan Williams said the GOP was a "regional southern party of white men." Even Republican strategist Mike Murphy called his GOP "the party of white males." Or as BBC's Katty Kay framed the danger, Republicans "don't want to end up being the party of white men."
The white part is correct. It goes without saying that Republicans must, foremost, win new minority voters. And Republicans do fare significantly better with white men than women. But take BBC's Kay. She's a fair-minded pundit and has written a book about women. But even Kay overlooks that the GOP consistently wins white women.(continued)
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Comments. White women have good sense.
The only thing worse than believing your own propaganda is believing that of you enemy.
I like white women.
I did not know this.
“I like white women.”
Me too.....I’m married to one.
Wild, willing, white women are the best!
Especially conservative ones. Small l Libertarians are OK, too.
Liberal women are so lame, you're not even sure when you've had sex with 'em. Ask Bill Clinton.
White women want security, and they want to be left alone to manage their families as they see fit.
The gop could, in theory, win every single election for the next 40 to 50 years if they could find a way of winning 75 or 80 percent of the white vote, and they wouldn’t need a single minority vote. Even though whites now make up only 66 percent of the population whites still make up about 75 percent of the voters. Take a look at TX, McCain-Palin won by 15 points, yet whites make up only 49 percent of the population or maybe even less, and it wasn’t because blacks and mexicans were busy voting for McCain, it’s just that whites turned out to vote in large numbers, and they overwhelmingly voted as a block. It’s also interesting to note that Alabama had the lowest rate of whites voting for 0bama, only about 10 percent, 90 percent voted McCain.
Christie won in NJ because of higher than average white turnout and average to below average minority turnout.
No one can out pander the democrats, so it’s unlikely that the repubs can really attract much more than 10 percent of the black vote, which only translates into about 1.3 percent of the total vote, and maybe 30 percent of the hispanic vote, which translates into only about 2 percent of total vote. It seems like it would be much easier to attract white voters. The old saying, fish where the fish are, rings true in this case.
Even in a year when Indies supposedly abandoned the Republicans, the truth is that Barack 0bama did not get a majority of white voters. Yet we don't ever hear about how the Democrats have to appeal to more whites. The gender gap you never hear about is among white males. Democrats have a very serious problem in that demographic. But you aren't going to ever hear analysts reflect on how white males have bailed on the Party.
Women versus wymmyn.
Last year, Obama made gains with white men compared to Al Gore. But Obama fared worse than Gore with white women. As for the much-discussed white suburban women’s vote, they went to McCain.
Hmm...I wonder why that might have been?
We know women vote on the economy and domestic issues. The economy was by far the top issue last year. To be blunt, it sucked under Bush in 2008. Bush’s approval was in the 20s for much of the year. The Obama campaign targeted these white women and suburban white women. They spent more money and aired more ads than any other candidate in history on them. He got more positive media coverage than any candidate in history, especially on programs and magazines that white women consume a lot of.
All that...and he still lost them 53-46, the same margin he won overall by, so a 14 pt difference. From +7 in the general electorat to -7 among white women. And that was with all he had going for him including the total economic implosion and market crash of Septemebr and October or it would have been a much bigger margin.
and
But it would be a mistake, as is true of men as well, to limit the GOP’s white female appeal to the South. Consider that McCain won a majority of working class white women in the Midwest and West.
Again, I wonder what might have had a role in that?
And now according to Gallup white women are already at around 50% disapproval.
If McCain had done even a few pts better among white women which he was well on his way to doing before the crash he’d have won comfortably. The GOP can win comfortably in 2012 once the 3-5 pts worth of white women who switched to Obama after the collapse in a state of panic and frustration at Bush and the GOP realize their mistake and switch back.
So Debbie Wasserman Schultz is full of it up to her eyeballs...whoda thunkit?
This is a demo that will respond favorably to Sarah Palin. Moms matter...
If John McCain had won 60% of the white vote rather than 55%, he would be President today. If the Reps don't change our existing immigration policies, they will be the permanent minority party. 87% of the 1.2 million LEGAL immigrants who enter this country are minorities. Minorities and immigrants vote mostly Dem.
Thanks for your analysis. The “prevailing wisdom” is so completely off the mark, it’s astounding.
The GOP can win comfortably in 2012 once the 3-5 pts worth of white women who switched to Obama after the collapse in a state of panic and frustration at Bush and the GOP realize their mistake and switch back.
Not if the dems succeed in legalizing 20-30 million illegal immigrants. They will have successfully neutralized the repub gains among independents if they throw in a huge new voting block.
If only the entire country was like Alabama. Unfortunately it’s not.
You’re right about the decreased black turnout in NJ and VA this year. I wouldn’t count on that in 2012. They will be out in force. Obama will have had 4 years to make sure they are out in force.
Interestingly, I think Deeds actually did better among blacks in VA as a % than Obama did.
Around 67% of the white vote would win the election with zero minority support. But even last yr, we got 5% of the black vote, 31% of the hispanic vote and 40% of the rest of the minority vote(Bush got 44% in 04). So, in 2012, we’ll likely need around 60% of the white vote or so. We got 55% last yr under the worst conditions possible. 60 should not be unthinkable. Especially if things get worse under Obama.
It’s much, much easier to go from 55 to 60 among whites than from 5 to 15 among black or from 30 to 40 among hispanics. A 5 pt gain among whites adds 4 pts worth. A 5 pt gain among blacks adds .6 pts worth. A 5 pt gain among hispanics adds .45 pts worth. You’re right it just makes way more sense to focus on increasing the white vote. And secondarily the hispanic vote by a few pts. Unfortunately, the black vote is a lost cause, especially with Obama.
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