The gop could, in theory, win every single election for the next 40 to 50 years if they could find a way of winning 75 or 80 percent of the white vote, and they wouldn’t need a single minority vote. Even though whites now make up only 66 percent of the population whites still make up about 75 percent of the voters. Take a look at TX, McCain-Palin won by 15 points, yet whites make up only 49 percent of the population or maybe even less, and it wasn’t because blacks and mexicans were busy voting for McCain, it’s just that whites turned out to vote in large numbers, and they overwhelmingly voted as a block. It’s also interesting to note that Alabama had the lowest rate of whites voting for 0bama, only about 10 percent, 90 percent voted McCain.
Christie won in NJ because of higher than average white turnout and average to below average minority turnout.
No one can out pander the democrats, so it’s unlikely that the repubs can really attract much more than 10 percent of the black vote, which only translates into about 1.3 percent of the total vote, and maybe 30 percent of the hispanic vote, which translates into only about 2 percent of total vote. It seems like it would be much easier to attract white voters. The old saying, fish where the fish are, rings true in this case.
If only the entire country was like Alabama. Unfortunately it’s not.
You’re right about the decreased black turnout in NJ and VA this year. I wouldn’t count on that in 2012. They will be out in force. Obama will have had 4 years to make sure they are out in force.
Interestingly, I think Deeds actually did better among blacks in VA as a % than Obama did.
Around 67% of the white vote would win the election with zero minority support. But even last yr, we got 5% of the black vote, 31% of the hispanic vote and 40% of the rest of the minority vote(Bush got 44% in 04). So, in 2012, we’ll likely need around 60% of the white vote or so. We got 55% last yr under the worst conditions possible. 60 should not be unthinkable. Especially if things get worse under Obama.
It’s much, much easier to go from 55 to 60 among whites than from 5 to 15 among black or from 30 to 40 among hispanics. A 5 pt gain among whites adds 4 pts worth. A 5 pt gain among blacks adds .6 pts worth. A 5 pt gain among hispanics adds .45 pts worth. You’re right it just makes way more sense to focus on increasing the white vote. And secondarily the hispanic vote by a few pts. Unfortunately, the black vote is a lost cause, especially with Obama.