If only the entire country was like Alabama. Unfortunately it’s not.
You’re right about the decreased black turnout in NJ and VA this year. I wouldn’t count on that in 2012. They will be out in force. Obama will have had 4 years to make sure they are out in force.
Interestingly, I think Deeds actually did better among blacks in VA as a % than Obama did.
Around 67% of the white vote would win the election with zero minority support. But even last yr, we got 5% of the black vote, 31% of the hispanic vote and 40% of the rest of the minority vote(Bush got 44% in 04). So, in 2012, we’ll likely need around 60% of the white vote or so. We got 55% last yr under the worst conditions possible. 60 should not be unthinkable. Especially if things get worse under Obama.
It’s much, much easier to go from 55 to 60 among whites than from 5 to 15 among black or from 30 to 40 among hispanics. A 5 pt gain among whites adds 4 pts worth. A 5 pt gain among blacks adds .6 pts worth. A 5 pt gain among hispanics adds .45 pts worth. You’re right it just makes way more sense to focus on increasing the white vote. And secondarily the hispanic vote by a few pts. Unfortunately, the black vote is a lost cause, especially with Obama.
Probably so, but I am not convinced that the youth vote will show up in 2012 like it did last year. This group has much to lose from the RAT plan to require everyone to carry health insurance. Suspect a lot of young folks will be over the crush on da One in another year or two.