Probably so, but I am not convinced that the youth vote will show up in 2012 like it did last year. This group has much to lose from the RAT plan to require everyone to carry health insurance. Suspect a lot of young folks will be over the crush on da One in another year or two.
keep in mind, though, a whole bunch of the youth vote WAS blacks. The 2 groups overlap.
The % of the 18-29 among the electorate was roughly the same in 08 as in 04. The difference was that Obama won them 66-34 as opposed to Kerry’s 56-44. +32 vs +12. A 20 pt jump.
A large reason for the bigger disparity was the huge number of young blacks(and hispanics) voting for Obama. Overall the black vote jumped from 11% to 13% of turnout, a record high. Most of that increase was among younger blacks. Among whites 18-29 he won but not by an overwhelming margin. Now, maybe in 2012 it won’t be a big deal to elect a black guy and 2008 will prove to be a one shot deal. Who knows?
Also, Obama is smart. The health care plan doesn’t take effect until 2013, AFTER the election. So by the time they realize what has happened it’ll be too late and he’ll already have been reelected. They won’t see any adverse effects before the election. A good move on Obama’s part.