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POLLSTERS (AND AMERICA) ARE IN FOR A SHOCK
http://www.elections.colorado.gov/DDefault.aspx?tid=547 ^

Posted on 11/02/2008 10:06:51 AM PST by profit_guy

Let's take CO for example...Mail-In & Early Voting representing approx. 56% of Total Active Voters in CO (based on Party Registration as of 8:30pm Oct 31):

D 488,575 51.2% +2.4% (RCP shows Obama +5.5%)...R 465,869 48.8%...I 336,511

Now here's where I think Obama has a BIG problem going forward in CO:

1. NOTHING has been factored in for the PUMA's. Imagine you are at a cocktail party standing around talking to 18 Hillary voters. Does anyone really think it is reasonable that not one, or two, or three, or more of those 18 voters will swing over to McCain?? (now think 18 million nationwide)

2. NOTHING has been factored in for the Bradley Effect, as well as the Muslim and Commie Effect. It's not as easy for a Black Muslim Commie to run for President as it used to be. Let's call that the Bradley/Hussein/Marx Effect. There will be significant Dem crossover to McCain due to this.

3. NOTHING has been factored in for Independents breaking towards McCain. Again, think the Bradley/Hussein/Marx Effect.

4. And this is one I have heard no one talk about. NOTHING has been factored in for what I call the Front-End Load Effect, which has been MASSIVE this year. Basically, I think Dem voters will show up in lesser proportions on election day than they have in early voting.

I invite comments to quantify the effects of 1, 2, 3 and 4. My guess is McCain wins CO by 5%. In other words, Obama is being overpolled by 10%. And if that is true across a large part of the country, and I suspect it is, then McCain wins.

SO IGNORE THE POLLS, AND GET OUT AND VOTE!


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Colorado
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To: profit_guy

This is the 4th or 5th post I’ve seen where someone presents early voing turnout and results showing McCain losing by less than the polls. But he’s still losing. A close second doesn’t help.


61 posted on 11/02/2008 10:55:22 AM PST by wny
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To: fortunate sun

My son went to a Union Parade (Ironworker’s Local 11) a couple of weeks ago, he was forced to carry an Obama sign. Being a Newbie Apprentice he obliged without saying a word, then came home and ripped the sign up! LOL!


62 posted on 11/02/2008 10:57:47 AM PST by alice_in_bubbaland (C'mon John! We're getting close to victory!)
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To: Retired Greyhound
“Polls are also not factoring the number of registered Dems who are actually Republicans (Operation Chaos).”

I switched to the RAT party to vote for Hillary for the primary. I have not switched back yet, and won't until after the election. I hope the OC effect is influential.

63 posted on 11/02/2008 10:58:41 AM PST by mickey finn
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To: profit_guy

I JUST GOT SURVEYED!


64 posted on 11/02/2008 11:01:42 AM PST by redangus
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To: Unkosified

Special needs kids have Grand Parents also.
It is a potential voting niche larger many others.


65 posted on 11/02/2008 11:04:23 AM PST by There's millions of'em (Self deprecating nanobots rule.)
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To: proudtobeanamerican1

They won’t miss a chance to punish those they envy.


66 posted on 11/02/2008 11:04:44 AM PST by Salamander (http://theuniversalseduction.com/articles/?c=Obama)
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To: profit_guy

Nothing has been factored in for people lying through their teeth to the pollsters:
1) because they don’t like being polled, and
2) because they want to fool the pollsters and skew the polls.


67 posted on 11/02/2008 11:16:09 AM PST by BlessedBeGod (I guess I'm a bitter redneck clinging to God & guns, 3 generations from small towns in W. Pa.)
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To: profit_guy
In for a shock

Maybe not appropriate at this time, but I will take a chance. I find the websites incredibly vague on past Canadian election polls. Some of the pollsters have American based parent companies- Gallup for instance. Using the Laurier Institute of Public Opinion and Study, I found this for 1984. The Liberal Party were the anointed (sound familiar?). General consensus as tabulated by LIPOS.

Liberal 48% popular vote.
Conservatives 39% popular vote.
New Democrat 11%.

Actual results.

Conservatives 50%
Liberals 19%
New Democrats (not given).

The margin of error was a whopping 20%. Gallup spokesman when asked said this. "Oh, we do state within a margin of 3% (I think 3), but we do say that we are right 19 out of 20 times- this was the 20th(laugh, joke etc).

An American admiral was quoted as saying "Damn the torpedoes, steer her straight ahead". My sincere prayers for America.

68 posted on 11/02/2008 11:28:28 AM PST by Peter Libra
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To: Peter Libra

Another example of the MYTHICAL “Margin Of Error”

They were off by almost 700% of their “Margin Of Error”

Will their next round of polls state a 15-20% “Margin Of Error”? No, it will be 3, LOL.


69 posted on 11/02/2008 11:31:24 AM PST by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: bahblahbah
OK, this post should probably be deleted...

After looking through your posting history, you fancy yourself to be the authority on how positive poll analysis shouldn't be posted. That and posting an article on how Piper Palin had a Vutton knock-off bag.

In other words, you don't actually add anything, provide no insight, and are trying to knock us down in a critical hour. In other words, effectively, you're a troll.

Begone. There's no room for trolls here in the pitch of battle for our country.

70 posted on 11/02/2008 11:45:58 AM PST by Yossarian (Everyday, somewhere on the globe, somebody is pushing the frontier of stupidity...)
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To: jersey117; shield
Not sure when this took place. It was posted last night by shield. Someone on the thread said it had been posted a couple of days before. I went up on YouTube 11/1/08.

Digg it!

71 posted on 11/02/2008 11:47:07 AM PST by jellybean (Write in Fred! - Proud Ann-droid and a Steyn-aholic)
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To: profit_guy

I called undecideds in Colorado for McCain Campaign...I suspect I talked to a number of women who were PUMA’s...they whispered they were voting for McCain. There are a lot of them in Colorado.


72 posted on 11/02/2008 11:50:48 AM PST by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: freespirited

I have heard a lot about what Obama said in South Carolina,Are there any posts with what was said I have not seen any of it


73 posted on 11/02/2008 12:15:41 PM PST by ballplayer
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To: BlessedBeGod
"Nothing has been factored in for people lying through their teeth to the pollsters: 1) because they don’t like being polled, and 2) because they want to fool the pollsters and skew the polls. "

As to the latter hi-lighted ones, I have seen that the PUMAs have joined in an agreement to do just that, i.e, registered Democrats saing the 0ne when they will not. As to their numbers, I have not seen anything reliable. What I do know is that PUMAs and Hillary supporters are rabidly active and probably well connected b/t each other. If McCain pulls this off in a close one, it will be the PUMAs that helped this wonderful country dodge this Marxist bullet to the heart...

74 posted on 11/02/2008 1:04:50 PM PST by eureka! (Hey mushy middle: Who is Barrack 0bama? Wait until you learn the answer. It's not pretty.)
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To: profit_guy
I live in Colorado and have already voted for McCain!! I have been polled three times and have told them I was going to vote for Zero-bama (cough, cough). I don't know if that was the right thing to do but it was kind of fun.

Someone earlier asked about Colorado Demographics:

White 73%
Hispanic 18%
Black 5%
Asian/Other 4%
Median Age 33
Christian 65%

I rounded off the numbers but they are pretty close. My guess is that these numbers look pretty good for McCain.

75 posted on 11/02/2008 1:12:04 PM PST by POWG
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To: BlessedBeGod

True, both my wife and I lie to the polls. We figure it is our civic duty to screw with the Democraps.


76 posted on 11/02/2008 2:49:54 PM PST by midmoschmo
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To: fortunate sun

Today’s NJ paper headlined with Obama’s 20+ lead here.


77 posted on 11/02/2008 2:51:31 PM PST by jersey117
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To: Unkosified; profit_guy

You are both underreporting the “special needs” community — limiting it only to the parents of said children. You need to also include grandparents, aunts, uncles, cousins, etc. who live the reality right along side of that child with special needs. Additionally, the friends, neighbors, community associations should be factored in as well, since we receive love and support and attention from many sources, not just within our family.

I am the (single) parent of a special needs child — adopting four siblings out of foster care. I also homeschool.


78 posted on 11/02/2008 2:56:22 PM PST by adopt4Christ (The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing.)
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To: kjam22
I just have a bad feeling about this. Bad enough that I'm getting out of the market tomorrow and into bonds and cash.

Barrons states that many on Wall Street think Obama will win, but the also think that McCain would be much better for the market. If that's the case, then when McCain wins, we're likely to see a HUGH surge in the stock markets.

I think that would be outstanding!

79 posted on 11/02/2008 4:47:04 PM PST by SuziQ
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To: peeps36
Obama is all media hype and he's only backed by the far left.

We came up beside a truck the other day with an oval yuppie sticker on the back window. It was the word HOPE, with the O being formed by the Obama symbol, but over the symbol was the letter Y, so that it spelled HYPE. As we passed the guy, I yelled out that I loved his sticker. He just laughed.

As we came up to the large intersection in our town's center, two older men were standing on the Common with a HUGH sign that read, "NOBAMA". We just laughed, and as we passed them later, and were closer to them, we blew our horns, and gave them a thumbs up. There were several other cars doing the same thing. Those guys were having a blast!

80 posted on 11/02/2008 4:54:05 PM PST by SuziQ
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