Posted on 11/02/2008 10:06:51 AM PST by profit_guy
Let's take CO for example...Mail-In & Early Voting representing approx. 56% of Total Active Voters in CO (based on Party Registration as of 8:30pm Oct 31):
D 488,575 51.2% +2.4% (RCP shows Obama +5.5%)...R 465,869 48.8%...I 336,511
Now here's where I think Obama has a BIG problem going forward in CO:
1. NOTHING has been factored in for the PUMA's. Imagine you are at a cocktail party standing around talking to 18 Hillary voters. Does anyone really think it is reasonable that not one, or two, or three, or more of those 18 voters will swing over to McCain?? (now think 18 million nationwide)
2. NOTHING has been factored in for the Bradley Effect, as well as the Muslim and Commie Effect. It's not as easy for a Black Muslim Commie to run for President as it used to be. Let's call that the Bradley/Hussein/Marx Effect. There will be significant Dem crossover to McCain due to this.
3. NOTHING has been factored in for Independents breaking towards McCain. Again, think the Bradley/Hussein/Marx Effect.
4. And this is one I have heard no one talk about. NOTHING has been factored in for what I call the Front-End Load Effect, which has been MASSIVE this year. Basically, I think Dem voters will show up in lesser proportions on election day than they have in early voting.
I invite comments to quantify the effects of 1, 2, 3 and 4. My guess is McCain wins CO by 5%. In other words, Obama is being overpolled by 10%. And if that is true across a large part of the country, and I suspect it is, then McCain wins.
SO IGNORE THE POLLS, AND GET OUT AND VOTE!
This is the 4th or 5th post I’ve seen where someone presents early voing turnout and results showing McCain losing by less than the polls. But he’s still losing. A close second doesn’t help.
My son went to a Union Parade (Ironworker’s Local 11) a couple of weeks ago, he was forced to carry an Obama sign. Being a Newbie Apprentice he obliged without saying a word, then came home and ripped the sign up! LOL!
I switched to the RAT party to vote for Hillary for the primary. I have not switched back yet, and won't until after the election. I hope the OC effect is influential.
I JUST GOT SURVEYED!
Special needs kids have Grand Parents also.
It is a potential voting niche larger many others.
They won’t miss a chance to punish those they envy.
Nothing has been factored in for people lying through their teeth to the pollsters:
1) because they don’t like being polled, and
2) because they want to fool the pollsters and skew the polls.
Maybe not appropriate at this time, but I will take a chance. I find the websites incredibly vague on past Canadian election polls. Some of the pollsters have American based parent companies- Gallup for instance. Using the Laurier Institute of Public Opinion and Study, I found this for 1984. The Liberal Party were the anointed (sound familiar?). General consensus as tabulated by LIPOS.
Liberal 48% popular vote.
Conservatives 39% popular vote.
New Democrat 11%.
Actual results.
Conservatives 50%
Liberals 19%
New Democrats (not given).
The margin of error was a whopping 20%. Gallup spokesman when asked said this. "Oh, we do state within a margin of 3% (I think 3), but we do say that we are right 19 out of 20 times- this was the 20th(laugh, joke etc).
An American admiral was quoted as saying "Damn the torpedoes, steer her straight ahead". My sincere prayers for America.
Another example of the MYTHICAL “Margin Of Error”
They were off by almost 700% of their “Margin Of Error”
Will their next round of polls state a 15-20% “Margin Of Error”? No, it will be 3, LOL.
After looking through your posting history, you fancy yourself to be the authority on how positive poll analysis shouldn't be posted. That and posting an article on how Piper Palin had a Vutton knock-off bag.
In other words, you don't actually add anything, provide no insight, and are trying to knock us down in a critical hour. In other words, effectively, you're a troll.
Begone. There's no room for trolls here in the pitch of battle for our country.
I called undecideds in Colorado for McCain Campaign...I suspect I talked to a number of women who were PUMA’s...they whispered they were voting for McCain. There are a lot of them in Colorado.
I have heard a lot about what Obama said in South Carolina,Are there any posts with what was said I have not seen any of it
As to the latter hi-lighted ones, I have seen that the PUMAs have joined in an agreement to do just that, i.e, registered Democrats saing the 0ne when they will not. As to their numbers, I have not seen anything reliable. What I do know is that PUMAs and Hillary supporters are rabidly active and probably well connected b/t each other. If McCain pulls this off in a close one, it will be the PUMAs that helped this wonderful country dodge this Marxist bullet to the heart...
Someone earlier asked about Colorado Demographics:
White 73%
Hispanic 18%
Black 5%
Asian/Other 4%
Median Age 33
Christian 65%
I rounded off the numbers but they are pretty close. My guess is that these numbers look pretty good for McCain.
True, both my wife and I lie to the polls. We figure it is our civic duty to screw with the Democraps.
Today’s NJ paper headlined with Obama’s 20+ lead here.
You are both underreporting the “special needs” community — limiting it only to the parents of said children. You need to also include grandparents, aunts, uncles, cousins, etc. who live the reality right along side of that child with special needs. Additionally, the friends, neighbors, community associations should be factored in as well, since we receive love and support and attention from many sources, not just within our family.
I am the (single) parent of a special needs child — adopting four siblings out of foster care. I also homeschool.
Barrons states that many on Wall Street think Obama will win, but the also think that McCain would be much better for the market. If that's the case, then when McCain wins, we're likely to see a HUGH surge in the stock markets.
I think that would be outstanding!
We came up beside a truck the other day with an oval yuppie sticker on the back window. It was the word HOPE, with the O being formed by the Obama symbol, but over the symbol was the letter Y, so that it spelled HYPE. As we passed the guy, I yelled out that I loved his sticker. He just laughed.
As we came up to the large intersection in our town's center, two older men were standing on the Common with a HUGH sign that read, "NOBAMA". We just laughed, and as we passed them later, and were closer to them, we blew our horns, and gave them a thumbs up. There were several other cars doing the same thing. Those guys were having a blast!
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