Posted on 11/02/2008 10:06:51 AM PST by profit_guy
Let's take CO for example...Mail-In & Early Voting representing approx. 56% of Total Active Voters in CO (based on Party Registration as of 8:30pm Oct 31):
D 488,575 51.2% +2.4% (RCP shows Obama +5.5%)...R 465,869 48.8%...I 336,511
Now here's where I think Obama has a BIG problem going forward in CO:
1. NOTHING has been factored in for the PUMA's. Imagine you are at a cocktail party standing around talking to 18 Hillary voters. Does anyone really think it is reasonable that not one, or two, or three, or more of those 18 voters will swing over to McCain?? (now think 18 million nationwide)
2. NOTHING has been factored in for the Bradley Effect, as well as the Muslim and Commie Effect. It's not as easy for a Black Muslim Commie to run for President as it used to be. Let's call that the Bradley/Hussein/Marx Effect. There will be significant Dem crossover to McCain due to this.
3. NOTHING has been factored in for Independents breaking towards McCain. Again, think the Bradley/Hussein/Marx Effect.
4. And this is one I have heard no one talk about. NOTHING has been factored in for what I call the Front-End Load Effect, which has been MASSIVE this year. Basically, I think Dem voters will show up in lesser proportions on election day than they have in early voting.
I invite comments to quantify the effects of 1, 2, 3 and 4. My guess is McCain wins CO by 5%. In other words, Obama is being overpolled by 10%. And if that is true across a large part of the country, and I suspect it is, then McCain wins.
SO IGNORE THE POLLS, AND GET OUT AND VOTE!
1. On Feb19, 2008, Chris Matthew of Hardball interviewed Obama supportor, Senator Kirk Watson, and asked twice,” Can you name one accomplishment of Sen. Obama in the US senate?” He could not name even one! After being asked if he was considering running for President, his own wife said that "It's way too soon, he hasn't done anything yet!" (Caught on YouTube) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyDqQW2adPk. In the same interview, Obama admits that he has "served 8 years in complete obscurity," again on YouTube, and again admitting he has no experience... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1syR8iV3G0. Less experience than GOVERNOR Palin (who is also Commander in Chief of the Alaskan National Guard). Like it or not, America is the last standing "SuperPower" and with Obama's finger on the Nuclear trigger that is a scary, frightening thought. Obama's own admitted experience is as an ACORN COMMUNITY ORGANIZER! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJurYbkuxTQ. In other words, HE HAS BEEN DIRECTLY INVOLVED WITH THE GROUP THAT IS WIDELY KNOWN TO BE REGULARLY COMMITTING VOTE FRAUD ACROSS THE COUNTRY! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ez6kKPcYbM0. Not only that, NO ONE HAS DENIED THAT THE OBAMA CAMP HAS "DONATED" OVER $800,000 to a VOTE FRAUD ORGANIZATION!
What did you NEVER hear reported by the Obama media? The original "bailout" program by the Democrats in Congress was fought against by Republicans BECAUSE IT CONTAINED A PROVISION TO PROVIDE BILLIONS OF TAXPAYER DOLLARS TO ACORN! THE VOTE FRAUD ORGANIZATION THAT DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS SUPPORT!
2. Obama was the second largest recipient of campaign contributions (and all of the top 3 were Democrats) for the mortgage finance companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that caused the financial mess. And the DEMOCRATS blocked the financial reforms that the Republicans tried to get passed http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs Funny how there has been a media BLACKOUT (except Fox News) on how the DEMOCRATS CAUSED THE MORTGAGE PROBLEM THAT DESTROYED HOME VALUES AND DESTROYED 401(K) retirement portfolios! [FN1]
3. Democrats NEVER really cut taxes, even when they "spread the wealth around." Clinton promised to cut middle class taxes in 1992, but that never happened and the media never questioned or challenged it. Does anyone really believe that Democrats will ever really reduce taxes? You can't really be that naive. Even if Obama were telling the truth and had every intention of cutting taxes, the President can not write legislation and from a Democrat Congress that has ALREADY PROMISED TO RAISE TAXES what kind of bills do you think a President Obama would be given to sign? Stop believing the lies. That's all they are is lies, and why is it that everyone keeps forgetting that the political party that always "promises" to help is always the one looking to take everything they can. [FN2] I was SHOCKED to hear Barak's own words, NOT REPORTED IN THE MEDIA but caught on YouTube, where he admitted in San Franscisco that he was going to INTENTIONALLY BANKRUPTS THE COAL INDUSTRY IN AMERICA! An industry that provide almost 50% of America's electrical power. This is pure INSANITY! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdi4onAQBWQ
4. Google shows some very scary connections to Obama and what the "Main Stream" media is trying to hide. What friends do you have? Do you make friends and associations with people who hate what you believe in, and who regularly attack and try to undermine your family and everything you find important? Of course not, the friends you have are the people that you at least have some kind of common ground with. Even if you don't agree with them on everything. Your friends, good or bad, are a reflection of who you are. And Obama is no different. How about taking a few minutes and doing a Google search for "Obama's Communist Friends"? You might be shocked to find that it is well documented who Obama really is thorugh his friends. [FN3] The scary thing is that THERE IS VIDEO OF OBAMA CAMPAIGNING, USING TAXPAYER MONEY, FOR HIS COMMUNIST COUSIN IN KENYA, RAILA ODINGA, WHO THEN ENGAGED IN MASS MURDER AND SLAUGHTER AFTER HE NARROWLY LOST THE ELECTION! http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1P_P8lBCsE More information on Fox News reporting the truth: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvmmG7dQMLc&NR=1 This may be one of the most frightening admissions by Obama that the media isn't reporting, he wants a special "civilian national security" force in America, better funded and organized than our own military. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt2yGzHfy7s This should scare everyone in America. This sounds like Fascism and totalitarianism.
Want something even scarier that the "main stream" outlets of ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and MSNBC are covering up? Obama ORIGINALLY RAN FOR STATE SENATOR IN ILLINOIS IN 1996 IN THE "NEW PARTY" WHICH WAS THE NAME FOR THE DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS OF AMERICA... Again ONLY reported on Fox News WITH DOCUMENTATION TO PROVE IT!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJ1jLxpfYCs. The "Weatherman Underground," which Obama long-time friend and domestic terrorist Bill Ayers has a claim to fame, split from the "New Party" some time later. Just Google, “Obama and New Party,” see for yourself. And the Socialists favorite slogan? "Change!" See the scary list of terrorists and socialists that support "Obama's" platform for "change". http://www.jeffhead.com/obamacircle.htm. Further, Fox News, the ONLY news program reporting anything at all about Obama did a 6 minute discussion with comments from Obama that talks about how he wants to turn America into a SOCIALIST NATION! Again, see it for yourself on YouTube. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzkXkY5wNmg.
5. Obama wants to make the 12 - 20 million illegals in America citizens ASAP and then add health care. He wants OUR TAXES AND JOBS TO PAY FOR IT ALL! Obama's own AUNT IS AN ILLEGAL ALIEN who has been ordered out of the country and LIVING ON WELFARE IN THE U.S. However, Obama PRETENDS that he didn't know his own Aunt was living in the U.S. illegally??? http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/11/01/barack-obamas-kenyan-aunt-living-illegally-boston/ How much more of an economic disaster can he and his socialist democrat counterparts do?
6. US Weekly, a reasonable weekly magazine just released an article where they review "Barak Obama" and it is clear that they are scared. Their eyes were finally opened when the followed him on the campaign trail in South Carolina. They saw his race-baiting, white hating rants and insanity for the first time. They saw all of "Jeremiah Wright" and the "I Hate Amerca" side of Barak Hussein Obama come through that he has so completely lied to the public about and they have documented it. Now, they have also loaded their magazine with a LOT more information that shows you just how completely perverse and sick the "main stream" media outlets of ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, and CNN have become in trying to hide the real man who presents the biggest risk to America and the world since the Civil War. Read it for yourself on their front page. http://www.usweekly.com/
Forward this to 50 people to pass on to 50 people!
Forward this to 50 people to pass on to 50 people!
Forward this to 50 people to pass on to 50 people!
[FN1] ACORN, Obama, and the Mortgage Mess. National Review. http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=Mzk4MmVkNzA1NGQ2NGRkZjQ2YjNmYjdlODZkMmQ4N2I=; 2004 Video: Democrats Defend Fannie/Freddie from Regulation: "We've been through nearly a dozen hearings where frankly we were trying to fix something that wasn't broke. Mr. Chairman we do not have a crisis at Freddie Mac and in particular at Fannie Mae under the outstanding leadership of Mr. Frank Raines."-Rep. Maxine Waters, 2004. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YL36nwCSYUM; History of Fannie Mae scandal. Associated Press, December 7, 2006. "Fannie Mae announces its long-awaited restatement, erasing $6.3 billion in profit from 2001 through June 30, 2004." http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2006/12/07/history_of_fannie_mae_scandal/?page=1
[FN2] Economic Consequences of an Obama Presidency and the Liberal Tax and Spend Congress. Full-scale National and International Economic Meltdown, a Global Depression. http://www.theobamadisaster.com/
[FN3] Accuracy in Media Report - How the Main Stream Media Intentionally Hides Obama's Communist Background. http://www.aim.org/aim-report/media-abet-communist-cover-up/ ; 100's of pages of EASILY VERIFIABLE documented PROOF of Obama direct ties to Communism which there is a total news blackout on EXCEPT with Fox News. http://www.freerepublic.com/~etl/
The Media Research Center has created a small series of examples on how the "Main Stream" media is working with Democrats and Obama to intentionally mislead and deceiving America. EVEN TRUE DEMOCRATS DON'T REALIZE WHAT IT IS THEY ARE GETTING AND VOTING FOR! AND THE MEDIA IS MAKING SURE THEY DON'T FIND OUT UNTIL IT IS TOO LATE! http://www.mediaresearch.org
Still not convinced? Review this online PowerPoint presentation. http://oldbluewebdesigns.com/USSA.htm
Well, I certainly hope you’re right. I’ve already voted here in Colorado.
Personally, I will be shocked no matter which candidate wins, but for different reasons.
Lets hope so. I think he is more of a threat than most on here do. I hope to be eating tons of crow. So fill my inbox on Wed if its a McCain blowout like many on here have predicted.
Another thing to look at — if you can find the numbers — is what the early vote totals were in 2004. That would be an even more revealing number.
Every single early indicator show this HUGE surge of new voters for Barack just isn’t there.
And that surge we haven’t seen is why the polls are so heavily weighted towards Dems.
And if the polls aren’t weighted correctly...
5. NOTHING has been factored in for the 36 million parents of special needs kids.
It’s possible I suppose that the media are deliberately misstating the level of Obama’s support so that when he loses, they can say that it proves either racism or fraud was the cause, but I doubt it. My suspicion is that the GOP is going to get shellacked.
Do you know the demographic breakdown in CO (by race/ethinicity)?
Chrissy went from asking hard questions of o supporters to getting tingles up his leg. Guess they got to him.
Seems like only you and Rick Davis (of the McCain campaign) believe this. Of the pollsters and their media followers (including Fox), there is discussion only on how much Obama will win by. However, I pray you are correct and they are wrong.
It’s clear that the Obama campaign has strongly advocated for early turnout. This has to be advantageous with the normal voting numbers. How much of a deficit will be built up due to early voting is hard to determine.
Clearly, the momentum favors McCain but he has a long road to journey.
OK, this post should probably be deleted...
Less than 48 hours!!! One final push to save the U.S.A.!
The challenge:
Between NOW and election day, convince at least two Obama/Undecided voters to vote for McCain. (family, neighbors, friends, people waiting in the check-out line) Further, convince these two people (or two others) to take up the same challenge. (Like a chain letter)
So you have converted people in the past? Good, but we need more!
Many Obama supporters are mindlessly supporting him, with no real reason, this means it is VERY easy to get them to switch over. Even if you fail, other Obama/undecideds may be in the room and hear valid arguments and question their faith in the One.
Don’t kick yourself a week from now saying “I could’ve done more....”
Do your part...your country depends on it!
the youth vote is no greater percentage than other elections ‘cause the conservative turn out is so high.
These polling results merely reflect the sentiments of those who have agreed to respond to polls. Many knowledgeable people are beginning to realize that as the number of voters who refuse to participate in polls continues to increase, it is starting to become a statistically meaningful factor. Indeed, perhaps more important than party identification, likelihood of voting, and/or weighting.
If a significant percentage of the sampled population is refusing to participate, pollsters (nor anyone else for that matter) have NO valid basis on which to make statistically accurate measurements regarding their voting intentions. Right now, polls are so corrupted that the only thing they are measuring are the voting intentions of those who are predisposed to respond to polls.
“5. NOTHING has been factored in for the 36 million parents of special needs kids.”
That’s an AMAZING number of voters.
These numbers are not vote totals, just the numbers of voters and their registration, right?
So you’re figuring a lot of those D voters went for McCain.
Have I got it?
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