Posted on 11/02/2008 10:06:51 AM PST by profit_guy
Let's take CO for example...Mail-In & Early Voting representing approx. 56% of Total Active Voters in CO (based on Party Registration as of 8:30pm Oct 31):
D 488,575 51.2% +2.4% (RCP shows Obama +5.5%)...R 465,869 48.8%...I 336,511
Now here's where I think Obama has a BIG problem going forward in CO:
1. NOTHING has been factored in for the PUMA's. Imagine you are at a cocktail party standing around talking to 18 Hillary voters. Does anyone really think it is reasonable that not one, or two, or three, or more of those 18 voters will swing over to McCain?? (now think 18 million nationwide)
2. NOTHING has been factored in for the Bradley Effect, as well as the Muslim and Commie Effect. It's not as easy for a Black Muslim Commie to run for President as it used to be. Let's call that the Bradley/Hussein/Marx Effect. There will be significant Dem crossover to McCain due to this.
3. NOTHING has been factored in for Independents breaking towards McCain. Again, think the Bradley/Hussein/Marx Effect.
4. And this is one I have heard no one talk about. NOTHING has been factored in for what I call the Front-End Load Effect, which has been MASSIVE this year. Basically, I think Dem voters will show up in lesser proportions on election day than they have in early voting.
I invite comments to quantify the effects of 1, 2, 3 and 4. My guess is McCain wins CO by 5%. In other words, Obama is being overpolled by 10%. And if that is true across a large part of the country, and I suspect it is, then McCain wins.
SO IGNORE THE POLLS, AND GET OUT AND VOTE!
I said it first a week ago... Cali for Mac.
wow.
Hugh and Series if it’s true!
Check out the Pumapac.org website today!
You are correct, Sir.
“Its possible I suppose that the media are deliberately misstating the level of Obamas support”
New Hampshire:
Ras: Obama +7.0
Final: Clinton +2.6
California:
Ras: Obama +1.0
Final: Clinton +9.6
Texas:
Ras: Obama +1.0
Final: Clinton +3.5
2008 Zogby Polls:
NH Primary - Obama by 13 (actual result: Hillary by 3)
CA Primary - Obama by 13 (actual result: Hillary by 10)
NJ went for Hillary in the primaries, BIG TIME! A lot of NJ union people/civil service workers are choosing to sit it out.
Fred Barnes last night predicted a McCain win 279 electoral votes and I swear he wears and odumbo nighty lately
1840 to 1850...by then all of the property requisites had been eliminated in the us constitution and us code.
We are a union household, we are for McCain. We have been Republicans since we could vote.
And it sure worked out real well, didn’t it?....:-\
My response is based upon second-hand info. A friend works in civil service atmosphere and many of the co-workers will be just enjoying a day off. I contacted another friend who is union, he has been brain-washed.
Are there really that many? I am one, but she is hardly a kid anymore.
“My Dad is currently registered as a Dem in TX, because he switched to vote for Hillary”
Some of my husband’s friends did the same.
he wears and odumbo nighty lately
huh???
Thanks & they are right..Holy Smokes!
Posted this 4 yrs ago right after the election:
The Stone Age Press has become nothing more than a giant Echo Chamber where all the reporters write for each other. The group think has become so predictable that if you read or hear one reporter youve herd them all. Where has all the original thought or creativity gone in an industry that is based on painting history with words? There are two main forces blowing through PravdABDNC that are stifling all diversity of thought. The first is the absolute bias towards the DNC and the other is the fear of going against the Establishment.
Is there any wonder that the Conservative writers continually have best sellers while liberals only have cellars? America is starved for writers of the truth, yet they are continually insulted by scribes who show nothing but contempt for them and their way of life. This is no way to expand your business or even keep the customers you already have. This Country is divided 52-48% Republican, yet the reporters of history are 90% Democrat. How can they reflect a Conservative Country on paper when they have no desire to understand it?
How has this Industry become so disenfranchised from its customer base? Simple really, the reporters write for each other and know that if they all agree then virtually nobody can be wrong. Take for example the election, even though GW had always polled the lead, the press hoped that Kerry would close at the end and take Florida. To predict otherwise would put you in the minority and if you were wrong you would have to explain why you went against the common group thought. If you were right then the group will just say that it was an upset and cover their error. Since everyone is in agreement there is no threat to lose face and maintain your expert status since you were all fooled. If you are wrong by yourself you are embarrassed.
This is how the Stoned Agers have maintained such catch phrases as Bush Lied, WMD, pre-emptive 18 month rushed into, go it alone coalition. This allows lies to be maintained with none of the established reporters willing to buck the tide even had they wanted. All of the awards and front page stories are given to the scribes who are the most established and those are the ones who do not take risks. Now all of the front page reporters are complete DNC spokesmen which leaves a vacuum of divergent thought. Everybody wants their little awards and will do what it takes to receive those awards. You sure wont soon see Ann Coulters name on those little dust catchers.
The major drum & bugle we are going hear over the next couple years will be that Harpy clinton is an automatic for President. None of these ancients will go against the group-think since it will put them out on a limb along with the casternation of their peers. Nobody will give an honest evaluation of her lack of warmth/humility or shrieking skills. Imagine her telling self deprivating humor? So we will hear nothing except what a great candidate/screecher she is. The fact is that she is a lousy candidate, a poor debater and sagging in the polls too. She very may well lose her Senate seat in a huge upset. You read it here first and the Old York Times, have they endorsed yet; will make excuses.
The lack of diversity and creativity will be the death of these Dinosnores. With a sophisticated audience and a shortened attention span these old formulas no longer work. When most information was stored and researched in books, attention spans could tolerate boring one sided drivel. With the advent of 24 hour news and the internet we no longer have the time or patience to tolerate their droll drivel.
What was once an industry supposedly filled with truth seekers is now a megaphone of the DNC. That and the lack of an original thought over the past 20 or so years and you have the Stone Age Press up to its nostrils in the tarpits of histoir. The literal bankruptcy of that industry would bring about a truly Free Press that not only has the political freedom but an intellectual freedom that has long been lost. It is heartwarming to see these pretty boy reporters in their death shakes as they invent scandal after scandal in a transparent attempt to return to their glory. This phony arrogance is driving more and more customers away from their crumbling Echo Chamber.
You can bet that the Buggy manufacturers had the same condescending smirks on their faces as the Model T splashed mud on their freshly polished shoes.
Pray for W and Our Freedom Fighters
5. NOTHING has been factored in for the 36 million parents of special needs kids.
EDITED to correct this. There are 18 million parents of special needs kids, not 36 million.
Nine million special needs kids = 18 million parents.
http://www.usa.safekids.org/tier2_rl.cfm?folder_id=2020
odumbo pjs
My favorite is when non property owners vote on property taxes. !!!!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.