Posted on 11/01/2008 3:12:37 PM PDT by johncocktoasten
My FRiends all you need to know about this election is as follows:
You can't win an election by losing 20% of your own base and losing independents.
Forget about Gallup or Rasmussen tracking polls and their special sauce weighting for party ID. Rasmussen says today that Obama receives support from only 75% of Democrats and is losing independents by a slight margin, but incredibly, defying laws of math and physics still leads McCain by 4% overall. Friends, that simply is not possible.
If you are looking for a poll showing a McCain lead before election day, you can forget it. It isn't going to happen, nor does it need to. In fact, it serves us better if McCain doesn't lead prior to victory on Tuesday night. The fall and subsequent meltdown of the left and its propagandist media is the result we need. This is a war we are in with the left. Why would you expect them to give us any quarter? Credibility? Honesty? Those traits have been discarded in the name of advocacy and survival.
Meanwhile, the Full Court Press will continue through election day and into the evening after the polls close. Many of you will go to sleep, resigned to a President Barack H. Obama. You will wake surprised to learn of John McCain's election instead. The media and pollsters have willingly bought the myth of huge youth and new voter turnout. However, the truth is that the Democrat voter registration goals in many states only moved Democrats to parity with Republicans in voter registration. John McCain has consistently outpolled his Voter ID percentages this entire campaign. If you see a poll with Obama up by 10, you can be certain that the Dem Party ID advantage was at least 13%. If you see Obama up 5, you can be certain the Dem Party ID advantage was 7%.
The Obama campaign is going to continue the push of inevitability stories thru election day. They aren't concerned with looking bad after the fact, because they have no shame. So understand that this garbage is coming, understand that our base is still going to show up huge, and understand that mathematically we are in the driver's seat. All we have to do is show up.
The other side is sitting there hoping to make something happen that has never happened before.
The IBD/TIPP Poll is at 47.2-43.8-8.0 undecided today. These are likely voters mind you. Those 8% undecideds are votes for John McCain FRiends. Not to mention that Obama's total number is overstated in these polls as his likely's are less likely than Mc's.
Look at the red states where Obama thinks he has a shot. IN, NC, VA, and GA all have huge minority populations, which is the only factor making these states close.
New Voters is a Myth, Gallup found the percentages of new votes identical to 2004
Youth Votes are a Myth, once again, the percentage increase in youth vote is below trend from 2004
Don't fall for the myths. Just vote and talk to FRiends and family about voting McCain.
America is not stupid, only the media portrayal of America is stupid. We won't elect Obama.
There’s probably been just as much fraud during every election...this is just the year it was driven out into the light for everyone to see.
Perhaps, because of the exposure, there ~may~ be less because few people want to risk 10 years in federal prison just to help Zero.
Some poll said that over 60% of Americans think ACORN is perpetrating voter fraud.
I doubt they’ll forget ACORN any time soon.
We can only hope and pray.
These pollsters have embarrassed themselves yet again. We're gonna vote. The base is fired up like it hasn't been in years. The choice is too clear. But this sets the stage for something we finally need to do: take the polls out of our politics. For too long they have been slanted, purposely or not doesn't even matter, they just need to be banned.
Because polls can be used to suppress voters they present a dangerous inteference in the American Electoral process. Only once in four years do we have the opportunity to choose our President. This should not be encumbered by extraneous numerology or any other source. If it is illegal to discourage people from voting by means of threats, it should be illegal to discourage people from voting with these inaccurate polls. Simply because polls do not involve violence does not make them any better.
Lets push to get polls out of our politics once and for all. They were wrong by as much as 21% in 1996. They were wrong again in 2000. In 2004, they were more or less close, but here we go again in 2008 with wild scattered polls discouraging the conservative voters. Over 700 polls conducted in the month of October, and these skewed up, weighted numbers are printed in bold print on the top fold of newspapers as if they were fact. When proven wrong by the electorate, there is no retraction, no apology, no fine, not even a slap on the wrist. Instead, the media gorge themselves on explaining the results telling us why we voted as if they know that, and what it means, as if they have any clue and completely ignore the incompetent polls that were outside their margins of error, as if that event never happened.
In 1996, around 90% of polls were outside their margins of error. What good is a margin of error if it does not guarantee accuracy? NONE AT ALL.
I'm done with polls. We have seen reforms tried after the 1996 election with new legislation to force them to publish demographics and stop the blatantly slanted process of using calling lists. ITS TIME FOR POLLS TO GO.
Pollsters have become the cancer of our electoral process. They have been caught red-handed taking bribes, instructing callers to "call your dog". If polls were accurate, why would they need to be "weighted?"
"The first thing we do, we ban all the polls" - Shakespeare (updated)
You got your first hard statistical fact in #32 :)
Remember Glen Beck's "Gloating" segment after the Bush vs. Kerry election (2004)? It was fantastic! Well, I can only imagine what it will be like after McCain defeats Obama.
Posted this on anather thread earlier. No way BO’s taking Indiana.
1. In the spring the polls in our area were given 20% more democratic ballots than the highest turn out. ALmost all ran out and had to request more ballots. (Operation Chaos) We chose party ballot, no party registration, This skewered the pollsters ration of D/R.
2. The Democratic Southern Indiana counties have familial ties through the generations with KKK. Remember the Klan not only hated blacks, they also hated Republicans. BO didn’t come anywhere near here.
3. S of S, Ricotta and the Indiana General Assembly have been working hard to clean up the voter fraud in the state. No more 110% of registered voters voting in Lake and Marion County. (Bussed in from Chicago) All polls workers were read a statement by Ricotta that anyone involved in any way in any voter fraud could count on at least 10 years behind bars. His office would be present at polling stations through out the state.
IN will go for McCain! We’ve jist been funnin with ya BO.
Hopefully the first of about 18-20 million of them
omg even I hadn’t thought of that, and I thought I thought of everything! It bears repeating:
One reason the pollsters may feel less pressure to “get it right” on election day this year is that if they’re way off, they don’t have to be accountable this time. They can just blame us, the voters, for misleading them due to racism.
Here’s an even weirder bit of anecdotal evidence.
My uncle [yeah, the “perv” one] is a die hard Dem, who along with my aunt gave money to Kerry in 2004.
This year, however, no money, no signs, nothing.
Why?
Because he HATES all blacks!
[and I mean with a violent passion...and Asians, too]
I guess they’ll both sit home this year.
The OTR Tracking Poll results for 11/1/08 are as follows:
McCain/Palin 95%
Obama/Joe The Biden 5%
Margin of Error: 0
Amen to that.
can you get them out to vote McCain?
We need 65,000,000-68,000,000 votes to have a realistic chance to win the White House. Make sure that everyone you know or even sort of know is voting. We have to saturate the the dem turnout. We need to turn out conservatives like never before.
If a single soul you know that is not a raging liberal does not vote then you may play a role in the dramatic change that obama talks about. Please do everything you can to get out the votes.
The uncle is a pedo and I was one of his victims.
I wouldn’t spit on him if he were on fire...so no, I am not going to be the one to “convert” him.
I know that this is OT but I really do not want to post a vanity. Does anyone know of a decent site to get foreclosure info? I am a poll watcher for Broward co FL and our law states that you cannot vote in a precinct if you do not live there. You can change your address on election day, but you must vote in the correct precinct.
What I am looking for is a list of foreclosures for zip 33019. I don’t mind paying for it. But I would like a decent sorting feature to exclude condos as there are not many in my precinct. I could eliminate a whole lot of beach properties that have a high foreclosure rate and narrow my list to the folks I am really concerned about.
I appreciate any help. I googled every which way and really didn’t come up with anything useful.
Also, in Maryland, it wouldn’t matter any way.
Everything is run by our Dem overlords.
We are a DEEP blue state, thanks to the counties that surround the DC/Balto area.
Barring some Reagenesque act of God, MD will go for Zero.
Big difference between America and Kenya, between those supporting McCain and conservative principles and Obamessiah's minions: we have guns, LOTS of guns thanks to our rights under the Constitution and we know how to USE them to defend our persons, our property and America. Kenyan like thugs running around with machetes trying to hack people and burn things will be met with armed resistance to their evil plans.
Like bringing a dinky knife to a bazooka/automatic weapons fight: they will lose and lose badly.
I doubt the first time voters, even blacks, will show up in the numbers touted by the media. First time voter standing in line for an hour gets tired of it and goes home.
sorry about that, I was unaware.
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