Posted on 11/01/2008 3:12:37 PM PDT by johncocktoasten
My FRiends all you need to know about this election is as follows:
You can't win an election by losing 20% of your own base and losing independents.
Forget about Gallup or Rasmussen tracking polls and their special sauce weighting for party ID. Rasmussen says today that Obama receives support from only 75% of Democrats and is losing independents by a slight margin, but incredibly, defying laws of math and physics still leads McCain by 4% overall. Friends, that simply is not possible.
If you are looking for a poll showing a McCain lead before election day, you can forget it. It isn't going to happen, nor does it need to. In fact, it serves us better if McCain doesn't lead prior to victory on Tuesday night. The fall and subsequent meltdown of the left and its propagandist media is the result we need. This is a war we are in with the left. Why would you expect them to give us any quarter? Credibility? Honesty? Those traits have been discarded in the name of advocacy and survival.
Meanwhile, the Full Court Press will continue through election day and into the evening after the polls close. Many of you will go to sleep, resigned to a President Barack H. Obama. You will wake surprised to learn of John McCain's election instead. The media and pollsters have willingly bought the myth of huge youth and new voter turnout. However, the truth is that the Democrat voter registration goals in many states only moved Democrats to parity with Republicans in voter registration. John McCain has consistently outpolled his Voter ID percentages this entire campaign. If you see a poll with Obama up by 10, you can be certain that the Dem Party ID advantage was at least 13%. If you see Obama up 5, you can be certain the Dem Party ID advantage was 7%.
The Obama campaign is going to continue the push of inevitability stories thru election day. They aren't concerned with looking bad after the fact, because they have no shame. So understand that this garbage is coming, understand that our base is still going to show up huge, and understand that mathematically we are in the driver's seat. All we have to do is show up.
The other side is sitting there hoping to make something happen that has never happened before.
The IBD/TIPP Poll is at 47.2-43.8-8.0 undecided today. These are likely voters mind you. Those 8% undecideds are votes for John McCain FRiends. Not to mention that Obama's total number is overstated in these polls as his likely's are less likely than Mc's.
Look at the red states where Obama thinks he has a shot. IN, NC, VA, and GA all have huge minority populations, which is the only factor making these states close.
New Voters is a Myth, Gallup found the percentages of new votes identical to 2004
Youth Votes are a Myth, once again, the percentage increase in youth vote is below trend from 2004
Don't fall for the myths. Just vote and talk to FRiends and family about voting McCain.
America is not stupid, only the media portrayal of America is stupid. We won't elect Obama.
“Special sauce.” ROTFLMAO!! Exactly!!
I needed that after going to the Gallup website today. Our local paper, a Gannett piece of sh— had Obama landslide on the front page...
Mr. Cocktoasten, that is one unfortunate last name.
The Obamedia floated an article last week in hopes of getting their “messiah” elected. They came up with the “bandwagon effect.” They were hoping to persuade voters to vote for their “messiah” because he was going to win anyway so they might as well vote for him and be winners too. That was pretty low. The Obmedia are scum.
Okay, Daddy, but I still think there’s a monster under my bed...
Excellent arguments!
Thanks for a great post.
The logic of the article holds and so do the lines in the battleground states.
Really hope that those numbers add up and create surprise (and gnashing of Rat teeth) in NH, PA, FL, OH and maybe even VA.
All hell will break out on the networks. And it will be, now I really hate to say this, the Lord’s victory.
I’m reluctant to say that, but really, so many of you are praying and we know Who’s will we honor.
The more I see the ugliness of the Left, the more concerned I get.
Never thought it could happen here. My grandmother who escaped communism from Eastern Europe was right. Communists never gave up, they continued to work to destroy us from outside and within.
just make sure you vote McCain and everyone you know votes McCain. The American People are going to sign the Drive By Media’s death warrant this Tuesday.
Statistically, the numbers really haven’t moved much the entire campaign. It has really been McCain up 4-5% all along. The “new” vote and “youth” vote stories, along with the financial crisis were just excuses to move numbers around.
McCain wins with legitimate votes. What about the fraudulent ones? I don’t want to dash any hopes here. But I am concerned about the fraud.
Can you imagine, can you imagine my FRiends, how much fun it will be watching the MSM (CNN, MSDNC, ABC, NBC etc. etc..)should McCain/Palin achieve victory? What will they possibly have to say? Will they have to put a straight-jacket on Olbermann? They’ll probably close DUmmyland down, for good.
I’ve got plenty of popcorn on hand.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
What I don’t understand is,, Democrats have always gotten the minority vote,, black vote.
So I read that Obama is going to win because of the large minority vote. Yeah?? That’s the way it always is for any other Dem.
Keep in mind the legacy of Cuz Odinga in Kenya. If the polls continue to show zero on top and McCain wins, well obviously its McCain “stealing the election.” It sets up a very nice grievance to be decided in the courts or on the streets. Remember we are dealing with the ACORN/Alinsky trained agitator-in-chief.
Will Obama rally the troops for a Kenya style riot when he loses? You can’t be sure based on the way the media has handled their election reporting.
You are John McCain's debate coach aren't ya!
Make no mistake, GA, NC, and VA are going to be closer than “normal” because every black in each state is showing up to vote Obama. Demographically, blacks make up 29.4% of the adult population of the state of GA. In 2004, they only made of 24.9% actual voters. So far in early voting, they are 35% of the actual vote. Now part of this is that they can’t wait to vote for Zero, and in the end, the black percentage will end up below 30%, but that is still a 5% increase over 2004. That will turn Georgia from a 11% Margin for Republicans to about a 5-6% Margin for Republicans. But nevertheless, GA electoral votes will go to McCain.
Do these people even understand what the word LANDSLIDED means?
Obama would have to win all but one or two states to have a real “LANDSLIDE”, but I assume if Obama wins even by 2%, that’s what the media will call it anyway.
An excellent time to activate all FReeper Sleeper screen names at the DUmp, for an all-out kamikaze taunt session, lol.
Thank you for a great post. I for one will not be going to bed resigned to a muslim victory.
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