Posted on 10/31/2008 10:03:30 AM PDT by jerod
The high water mark for Democratic votes during a Presidential campaign is 59 million in 2004 and Kerry lost.
Are all of those voters going to vote for Obama this year?
Kerry although very liberal, was a Vietnam veteran. That made him acceptable to conservative Democrats and they voted for him in droves.
Will those same conservative Democrats vote for Obama? I see no reason for them to do so.
Hillary Clinton received 18 million votes running against Barry O.
Will those 18 million vote for Obama? Not all of them and it is more than reasonable to assume that millions won't.
So if we assume that millions of traditional Democrat voters are not voting for Obama, those who are conservative and those who supported Hillary, then exactly who is voting for him?
Republican's certainly aren't, with the exception of Jim Leech, the Obama campaign have produced almost no big name Republicans who support their candidate.
So Obama is going to lose millions, let's give it a raw number... let's say a conservative estimate of 5 million from a total of 59 million who voted for Kerry in 2004 and according to most pollsters he supposedly is going to win this election.
I believe it defies reality to believe that Obama can make up 5 million lost votes.
The amount of voters skyrocketed in 2004 for a very good reason. The Iraq war. Kerry and Democrats wanted to end it, Bush and Republicans wanted to continue on.
The fear of Democrats winning drove 62 million to vote Republican in 2004. A staggering number of votes, but an indication of the power of fear.
There is only one central issue in this campaign and his name is Barry/Barack Hussian Obama. If 62 million American's showed up and voted for Bush in an effort to stop the Democrats from ending or screwing up the Iraq war, how many will show up to stop Obama from becoming President?
They say the turnout for this election may be enormous, but polls being conducted by traditional pollsters using Democrat oversampling may be very out of whack this year.
I fully expect that there will be more Americans voting this year than ever, but Pollsters and Pundits should not count out the possibility that Republicans and conservative voters, including a lot of Democrats who do not support McCain, voting for McCain to avoid a disastrous Obama Presidency.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Well, there are certainly new voters. And black turnout will be high.
But you are right, where is his support coming from?
It is hard to believe that that many disgruntled Bush voters will cross over, but that may happen in some states.
Just strange.
I guess all those millions of new voters which Gallup now admits don't exist in any greater number than they did in '04. This campaign is so wizard of oz-esque. I'll be so glad when we finally know the truth, that the marxist messiah following is a mirage.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Black turnout always went for dems though, so that is part of the equation which is being played up a bit too much IMO.
Obama may well receive fewer popular votes than Kerry yet
still win the electoral college. A shift of a few thousand
votes to Obama in Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada while polling
less than Kerry in traditional Blue States could tip the balance to the One.
If that was true, North Carolina, Indiana, North Dakota and Virginia wouldn’t be considered “battleground states”
And the GOP base will turn out in massive, 1994 like numbers. It’s over folks!
Foxnews poll - The race has tightened in part because of changes in a couple of important swing voting groups. Independents back Obama by 5 percentage points today, down from a 9-point edge last week. Similarly, among white Catholics, Obama held an 11-point edge over McCain last week and today they split 46-46.
Where's the change in his numbers if he lost an 11-point edge over McCain with Catholics and 4 points with Independents?
At this point, the only way Mccain is going to win is divine intervention. If he does win, I think many people will die.
At the risk of being labeled a troll or disruptor, I will respectfully disagree.
McCain is NOT going to win the national popular vote.
He MIGHT have a chance to win by winning a majority of electors through the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, as G.W. Bush did in 2000.
I don’t think there’s much chance of McCain “flipping” any blue states, with the possible exception of Pennsylvania - we’ve got to keep our fingers crossed on that one. If he wins PA, he wins the election. If he loses PA, McCain’s chances of victory (even through the electoral college) get far, far dimmer.
On the other hand, Obama is likely to flip one or more of the “blue-purple” states. These are once-red states that through demographic changes are also changing politically from red to purple (and, eventually, to blue). Of these, I predict we will lose New Mexico and Colorado in the west. In the east, we will be lucky to hold onto North Carolina (which I claim original credit for naming the “Colorado of the East”), and Virginia looks like a long shot.
New Hampshire, no longer red but not yet “true blue”, might go either way.
McCain will lose everything north and east of PA, again with the possible exception of New Hampshire and the one electoral district that may go his way in Maine.
He’ll lose the West Coast, and the Great Lakes states (Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois). He’ll lose Iowa (again, I take credit for dubbing Iowa to be the new “Vermont of the midwest”).
He wins the deep south, again with the possible exceptions of NC or VA.
McCain wins the midwest and mountain states, excepting Colorado and New Mexico. He’ll pick up West Virginia, too.
Even in some of the states in which he wins, it’s going to be close - a squeaker. I expect several Florida-style challenges and they could get ugly due to the racial factors.
I hope I’m wrong. You can save all the crows you find and email them to me on November 5th.
But that’s how I’m calling it.
That said, vote McCain/Palin on November 4th!
- John
I cannot see conservative Dems voting for Obama. Several conservative members of my family who lean towards ‘Rats have told me that there is no way they are voting for Obama.
Don’t know the future, but I know this: Young black men will NOT turn out in the numbers that the media have bankrolled their Mandingo fantasies on...
No, and he’s not.
Will those 18 million vote for Obama?
Not this Hillary voter's vote. I registered Dem and voted for her Thighness in March, just to screw up the Dem primaries. I hope that I helped!
BTW, I had to take an hour-long acid bath after doing that, and I'm not sure that I got rid of all of the contamination.
This year has to be a nightmare to predict. You have the Bradley effect, you have questions of how high black turnout will be, you have a ton of new registrations and have to figure out what to do with that, you have the possibility of a lot of Dems going R, and the possibility of some RINOs going Dem. Throw in trying to sort through fraud issues and this is a tough one to figure out.
“
Obama may well receive fewer popular votes than Kerry yet
still win the electoral college.”
I think he gets more votes than Kerry. I think that both McCain and Obama will set records. The population is up (as it always is) and i’ve never seen the electorate as a whole so excited. The question is who will end up receiving the most votes ever and who will get the second most.
“I hope I’m wrong. You can save all the crows you find and email them to me on November 5th.”
I hope you get tons of emails! Like you though I have a lot of doubts and am not as confident as many on here who seem to think this will be a walk. It isn’t. Its a war!
You posted a very thoughtful analysis; so what’s your best guess of the Electoral College outcome?
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