At the risk of being labeled a troll or disruptor, I will respectfully disagree.
McCain is NOT going to win the national popular vote.
He MIGHT have a chance to win by winning a majority of electors through the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, as G.W. Bush did in 2000.
I don’t think there’s much chance of McCain “flipping” any blue states, with the possible exception of Pennsylvania - we’ve got to keep our fingers crossed on that one. If he wins PA, he wins the election. If he loses PA, McCain’s chances of victory (even through the electoral college) get far, far dimmer.
On the other hand, Obama is likely to flip one or more of the “blue-purple” states. These are once-red states that through demographic changes are also changing politically from red to purple (and, eventually, to blue). Of these, I predict we will lose New Mexico and Colorado in the west. In the east, we will be lucky to hold onto North Carolina (which I claim original credit for naming the “Colorado of the East”), and Virginia looks like a long shot.
New Hampshire, no longer red but not yet “true blue”, might go either way.
McCain will lose everything north and east of PA, again with the possible exception of New Hampshire and the one electoral district that may go his way in Maine.
He’ll lose the West Coast, and the Great Lakes states (Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois). He’ll lose Iowa (again, I take credit for dubbing Iowa to be the new “Vermont of the midwest”).
He wins the deep south, again with the possible exceptions of NC or VA.
McCain wins the midwest and mountain states, excepting Colorado and New Mexico. He’ll pick up West Virginia, too.
Even in some of the states in which he wins, it’s going to be close - a squeaker. I expect several Florida-style challenges and they could get ugly due to the racial factors.
I hope I’m wrong. You can save all the crows you find and email them to me on November 5th.
But that’s how I’m calling it.
That said, vote McCain/Palin on November 4th!
- John
“I hope I’m wrong. You can save all the crows you find and email them to me on November 5th.”
I hope you get tons of emails! Like you though I have a lot of doubts and am not as confident as many on here who seem to think this will be a walk. It isn’t. Its a war!
You posted a very thoughtful analysis; so what’s your best guess of the Electoral College outcome?