"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Well, there are certainly new voters. And black turnout will be high.
But you are right, where is his support coming from?
It is hard to believe that that many disgruntled Bush voters will cross over, but that may happen in some states.
Just strange.
I guess all those millions of new voters which Gallup now admits don't exist in any greater number than they did in '04. This campaign is so wizard of oz-esque. I'll be so glad when we finally know the truth, that the marxist messiah following is a mirage.
At the risk of being labeled a troll or disruptor, I will respectfully disagree.
McCain is NOT going to win the national popular vote.
He MIGHT have a chance to win by winning a majority of electors through the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, as G.W. Bush did in 2000.
I don’t think there’s much chance of McCain “flipping” any blue states, with the possible exception of Pennsylvania - we’ve got to keep our fingers crossed on that one. If he wins PA, he wins the election. If he loses PA, McCain’s chances of victory (even through the electoral college) get far, far dimmer.
On the other hand, Obama is likely to flip one or more of the “blue-purple” states. These are once-red states that through demographic changes are also changing politically from red to purple (and, eventually, to blue). Of these, I predict we will lose New Mexico and Colorado in the west. In the east, we will be lucky to hold onto North Carolina (which I claim original credit for naming the “Colorado of the East”), and Virginia looks like a long shot.
New Hampshire, no longer red but not yet “true blue”, might go either way.
McCain will lose everything north and east of PA, again with the possible exception of New Hampshire and the one electoral district that may go his way in Maine.
He’ll lose the West Coast, and the Great Lakes states (Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois). He’ll lose Iowa (again, I take credit for dubbing Iowa to be the new “Vermont of the midwest”).
He wins the deep south, again with the possible exceptions of NC or VA.
McCain wins the midwest and mountain states, excepting Colorado and New Mexico. He’ll pick up West Virginia, too.
Even in some of the states in which he wins, it’s going to be close - a squeaker. I expect several Florida-style challenges and they could get ugly due to the racial factors.
I hope I’m wrong. You can save all the crows you find and email them to me on November 5th.
But that’s how I’m calling it.
That said, vote McCain/Palin on November 4th!
- John
I cannot see conservative Dems voting for Obama. Several conservative members of my family who lean towards ‘Rats have told me that there is no way they are voting for Obama.
No, and he’s not.
Will those 18 million vote for Obama?
Not this Hillary voter's vote. I registered Dem and voted for her Thighness in March, just to screw up the Dem primaries. I hope that I helped!
BTW, I had to take an hour-long acid bath after doing that, and I'm not sure that I got rid of all of the contamination.
This year has to be a nightmare to predict. You have the Bradley effect, you have questions of how high black turnout will be, you have a ton of new registrations and have to figure out what to do with that, you have the possibility of a lot of Dems going R, and the possibility of some RINOs going Dem. Throw in trying to sort through fraud issues and this is a tough one to figure out.
My big worry is Obama stealing the election. He doesn’t have to do it everywhere, just in key precincts, big cities, and swing states.
Kennedy stole the election from Nixon: LBJ stole Texas for him, and the Daley Machine stole Illinois. Those two states were all he needed.
Well, the Daley machine is working for Obama now, who is himself an experienced election stealer. Obama never actually won an election; he just stole them, by crookedly eliminating his opponents and by working the South Side and rigging the ballot boxes. He is determined to do it again.
So it will be a real fight.