"Obama leading by anywhere from one (IBD, the most accurate pollster the last time out)"Actually, IBD has Obama +4.1 http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN
This post brought me hope (not the Obama kind of “hope”) but real hope, the good kind. Gonna stay positive here. :)
I was thinking today.... Why don’t ALL these friggin pollsters take an equal percentage from both sides of the political spectrum when they do these polls?? Why do I always see, for example, 38% Dems polled and 30% Republicans. What the hell?
Rendell is complaining that Obama is not delivering on the “street money” that the city Dems rely on to get out the vote. that won’t hurt Obama in the majority Black or liberal wards, but could damage him mightily in the other areas of the city.
Barring outrageous amounts of voter fraud (by “outrageous” I mean way more than usual) Obama will not get the margin he needs in the city to tip the state, IMO.
More on Evan Sayet:
ES spoke at the Heritage Foundation about a couple of years (3-4?)ago; How Modern Liberals Think.
What little I know of him is this: He was a 'true believer' of liberalism but then 9/11 happened and it changed him. He has a comedy routine also and tours and does well with it.
Here are the results of a YouTube search on, 'Sayet.'
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Sayet is a smart guy and is certainly no Pollyanna. If he thinks McCain is going to win then I feel a little better about his chances.
There are so many unknowns in this election that is it is really hard to say. If Republicans show up McCain should win by at least 4 nationally. It is mainly the indecorous perfidy that plagues the larger cities that concerns me most.
Watch the stock market tomorrow...if it rises significantly, then, McCain/Palin will win.
For those who haven't seen it, here's Evan's brilliant speech on the nature of liberalism at the Heritage Foundation.
bmflr
Bump for Friday reading.
"Obama leading by anywhere from one (IBD, the most accurate pollster the last time out)"I think one sign that McCain/Palin might win is how B O is yelling and waving his finger in his recent speeches. Sure sign of desperation.
Here are the under-reported reasons I have collected why McPalin will win from visiting FR way too much.
1) The press (AP, MSNBC) is starting to turn on Obama. They see what’s happening in the early returns. Please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119327/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119299/posts
1.8) If you have not considered that Democratic Presidential campaigns would try to browbeat you into thinking that a Democrat win was inevitable, and that you should side with “history,” and vote with everyone, please read http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117212/posts
1.85) According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2118129/posts, McCain is polling evenly in early voting exit polls in a county that has 28% more Democrats. Repeat: DEMOCRATS ARE VOTING McPALIN!!!
1.9) Oh yeah, the “Joe the Plumber” video isn’t the only time Obama has let fly with his “spread the wealth” worldview. He blabbed about it profusely in 2001 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2116921/posts
2) “Polls” that show Obama ahead tell a different story when internals are studied. Please see http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/an-eeyore-free-zone for a primer on how polls are cooked. UPDATE: Rasmussen saying McCain ahead in Florida and Ohio.
And now, a brief history lesson of ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS:
1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41%, (+9.75 Reagan) Reagan won 45 states.
1984: Regan 58.77%, Mondale 40.56% (+18.21 Regan) Reagan won 49 states.
1988: Bush 53.37%, Dukakis 45.65% (+7.72 Bush) Bush won 42 states.
1992: Clinton 43.01%, Bush 37.45%, Perot 18.91% (+5.66% Clinton) Clinton won 30 states.
1996: Clinton 49.23%, Dole 40.72%, Perot 8.40% (+8.49% Clinton) Clinton won 31 states.
2000: Bush 47.87%, Gore 48.38% (Gore +0.49%) Bush won 30 states.
2004: Bush 50.73%, Kerry 48.27% (Bush +2.46%) Bush won 31 states.
NO WAY is Obama up 14 points!
3) Hillary and Bill are not acting like they want Obama to win, since she wants to run again in 2012, despite what she alludes to. Notice Hillary has not gotten Berg to cut it out with his “birth certificate” lawsuit.
4) “Hussein” being Obama’s middle name is still news to most people.
5) A picture of Obama dressed as a Muslim (there are at least three) is still worth 1000 words (3000 in this case). Man your email station! Post bills!
6) The PUMAs who know the hows and whys of Hillary getting cheated, will vote Palin, and will pull others. Check out http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=33711&page=3 and http://democrats-against-obama.org. Freeper lonestar67 says, “Surveys have suggested that as many as 20-30% of Democrats may vote for McCain based on the rejection of Hillary. If even fractions of these claims are true, Obama would be hard pressed to win the election— especially in key states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio.”
7) “[Bitter Clingers] to [Religion and Guns]”, will vote McCain, so much so that 22K of the 45K in Grand Junction, Colorado came out to see her http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110920/posts.
8) The Palins ARE America and the conservative base. America and the conservative base will vote accordingly. According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2106836/posts parts of the country that were not fired up about the election, are working for Palin. She draws THOUSANDS at every campaign stop.
9) The NRA has “8 figures” of ads to unload in “swing” states
10) At one point, Obama was only 5 points up in New York! New York!
11) The Democrats were talking about Democratic consultants freaking out over Obama mis-managing his campaign before they settled into poll alteration.
12) The Enemedia is already spreading the meme that if Obama loses, it “is racism”. They see the tea leaves ...
13) The Media was calling the election for Kerry ELECTION MORNING in 2004, and Carter and Reagan polled evenly on election day! SOMEONE is trying to buffalo us with these polls! For more on the history of polls leaning Democrat, please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2106669/posts Both Zogby and Mike McCurry predicted a Kerry win.
14) McCain has only started to play the Ayers card. McCain has not yet played the Tony Rezko, Odinga, ... more at http://www.barackbook.com
15) Plenty of long-time Democratic voters are http://thehill.com/dick-morris/undecideds-should-break-for-mccain-2008-10-28.htmlnimpressed with Obama, and will not vote for him. Two midwestern transplants have volunteered to me that they know lifelong Democrats who WILL NOT vote for Obama. The 1st hand accounts here on Free Republic about lack of enthusiasm for Obama relative to Kerry similarly bodes poorly for Obama.
16) Obama has only 75% of the Jewish vote last I checked, just like Kerry (comfortable R win). Gore got 90% (close R win). Please see http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_and_the_jewish_vote.php and http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08293/921167-470.stm
17) The Christian base that re-elected Bush in 2004, knows Sarah is more than a Sunday Christian, and is praying for her.
18) McCain opened 50 offices in California. It’s in play! It should be the bluest of the blue, and it is not.
19) Google “Bradley Effect”. Obama is getting poll votes he’ll never get on election day. PUMAs have also agreed to lie to pollsters about supporting Obama, and are encouraging others to do so.
20) Operation Chaos resulted in an overlarge quantity of Democrat registrations that will never ever vote Democratic.
21) Obama’s “spread the wealth” line to Joe the Plumber will cost him undecideds not ready to etch the current class structure in stone.
22) The Enemedia overstating Obama’s popularity will cut two ways. The lazy, and the youth, (core Democrat constituencies) will not brave traffic and lines to vote on election day, since they were lied to by the KGBMedia to believe that Obama has a gigantic lead. In fact, if I worked for the GOP, I’d make sure free beer/music parties were being held outside of every major blue city before/on election day. They’re called “raves”.
23) There is a group playing Jeremiah Wrights ads. Read more about it http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108462/posts, and to donate visit https://www.completecampaigns.com/FR/contribute.asp?campaignid=OCDBPac.
24) The Obama crew already knows they’re going to lose. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110803/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2103037/posts
25) Kerry won the Nickelodeon kids vote 57/43, and Obama won it 51/49! If you don’t think kids vote like their parents, then you got another thing coming! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110843/posts
26) Freeper lonestar67 says, “... the misogynist treatment of Palin by the media elite has provided additional elements to the coming silent backlash— especially among women.”
27) Three people over 50 (white male and two Mexican women), on two occasions, on October 25th, asked me if I know about Obama not being a citizen. My Dad knows, and he emailed all his friends also. Point being, EVERYBODY KNOWS that Obama ain’t benevolently and humbly forthcoming with his birth certificate, and thus something fishy is afoot in Camelot.
28) Polls are meant by the Enemedia, to SHAPE public opinion, not to accurately report it. Get your news here! Stop torturing yourself! We bring the liberal media lies here, and we dissect them through the lenses of Christianity and Conservatism.
Make sure you ...
1) campaign and/or pray and/or donate
2) vote
3) wear the gracious smile of a victor
Fellow Freepers, please feel free to post this list every time you see a Freeper or anyone feeling down, anywhere. No need to credit me or ping or write me.
Let me know if you have any other under-reported reasons for the coming McCain/Palin win.
Please tell me if you think there are mistakes.
Hey Obama supporters!! Taxes kill businesses, which kills jobs, which kills people.
interesting
read later
One such confounding factor gives me some comfort. I think the polls will tend to miss the full effects of recent negative discoveries about Obama.
Consider potential new young voters that were impressed by Obama back before Rev Wright became infamous. They registered democrat and voted for Obama in the primary...but then the blush came off the rose, and they concluded Obama was just as slimy as the other politicians. So they tune out...and Nov 4 just comes and goes like any old day.
Despite them no longer participating, they are still a registered democrat. No pollster calls, because being new young voters, they aren't listed, or don't have a land line, or they work a service job and weren't home at dinner time. However, the pollster calls older more dedicated registered democrats on their behalf.