"Obama leading by anywhere from one (IBD, the most accurate pollster the last time out)"Actually, IBD has Obama +4.1 http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN
Posted on 10/30/2008 10:54:04 PM PDT by RobinMasters
John McCain has the upper hand in the November 4th election. How can I say that when the polls show Obama leading by anywhere from one (IBD, the most accurate pollster the last time out) to 13 from the folks who brought you Dan Rather and the use of forged documents to try and steal the election just four years ago. A brief look at the methodolgy of these polls -- the degree of over-sampling of Democrats corresponding almost to perfection with the degree of Obama's "lead" in them -- shows a tight race, with McCain actually leading by a point or two.
This reality is underscored by events within the campaigns which, when analyzed, show an Obama camp in desperation.
1) The politically savvy Governor of Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell, is clearly panicking. Rendell has publicly begged the Obama campaign to send their star back to the state for no less than THREE major events to "close the deal" on a state that should have been closed for the leftists month ago.
And it's no wonder the campaign is panicking, an Obama internal poll was accidentally released to the media and it shows The Anointed One in a statistical dead heat with his American hero opponent. And this was BEFORE John Murtha basically parrotted Obama's San Francisco speech in which The Anointed One candidly spoke of his disdain for the people of Pennsylvania. Murtha may not be as eloquent as The One, but the condescension and disrespect that he has for the people who "cling" to their Christianity and constitutional rights is exactly the same.
(Excerpt) Read more at regularfolksunited.com ...
Ya know, that’s an aspect of polling not talked about and may be a prime reason for the inaccuracies of elections polls.
bmflr
Bump for Friday reading.
"Obama leading by anywhere from one (IBD, the most accurate pollster the last time out)" "Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I think one sign that McCain/Palin might win is how B O is yelling and waving his finger in his recent speeches. Sure sign of desperation.
5) The no response result of calls is at a historical high. This is bizarre. What is more bizarre is the large number of undecideds that remain, even given the no response total. Why do samples answer the phone and go through the survey in order to say undecided? Why not refuse to respond? Weird.
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It’s the Politically Correct Chickens coming home to roost, the high numbers of undecideds are voting for McCain as are a portion of the democrats who don’t want to be bothered with any questions about why they’re not voting for the black guy.
The Politically Correct Gestapo has made accurate polling impossible this election.
Watch the stock market tomorrow...if it rises significantly, then, McCain/Palin will win.
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EVERYONE BUY STOCK TOMORROW! Avoid the New York Times and the L.A. Times though, lol.
I think Rush said it best on his show yesterday-he doesn’t have a gut feeling about the race either way this year cause there is NO reliable information.
All the Obama deception out there coupled with a media TOTALLY in the tank for Obama means that there is NOTHING being reported anywhere that you can believe.
This is why we should put very little stock in ANY polls and in analyses of such polls and concentrate on TURNOUT.
Let’s assume this election is neck and neck (which it probably is, maybe a point or two either way) and get EVERYONE we know to the polls on Tuesday.
Then we can watch gleefully Tuesday night as the drive-bys are forced to report the truth of a Mccain victory after selling their souls for the Messiah this whole election.
Oh, one other thing, if you’re a person of faith, PRAY like you’ve never prayed in your life these next 4-5 days!
I think the pollsters intentionally call in the evening hours when people are more likely to be home.
Your point that the polls are garbage, because the samples are garbage is spot on, however.
Reasons for this could include but are not limited to:
people who screen their phone calls and don't bother answering the "number not available" calls
people who have gotten jaded by being endlessly push polled and don't believe that they are being asked questions by a real pollster
people who still believe in a secret ballot and don't wish to share their feelings
people who work in the evening
people who don't have a phone
people who don't have high speed internet and still use dial-up (basically, all the bitter hillbillies and rednecks)
Additionally, a random sample is only valid if every member of the poplulation has an equal chance of being included. People who are married usually share one landline. Therefore, single people (more likely to vote Obama) will have twice the chance of being called as married people (more likely to vote McCain). People who live with parents or adult children will have even less chance of being called.
For all of these reasons and a whole lot more, the pollsters have to heavily massage the numbers to have any chance of making an accurate prediction. There is nothing inherently wrong with their methodology. The polls only enter the realm of evil when they pretend to be "scientific" because they use "statistical methodology". The reporting of margins of error in these polls is an example of the pollsters joining the dark side. Including the margin of error makes the poll sound more like it is done using valid statistical methods when this is completely not the case.
Also, if cellphones were included you would open up a whole new Pandora's box. Single people with a cell phone for work, a cell phone for personal use and a landline would then have 6 times the chance of being included in the sample as a married person with no cell phone.
His article was written 10 days out and was accurate at the time.
Here are the under-reported reasons I have collected why McPalin will win from visiting FR way too much.
1) The press (AP, MSNBC) is starting to turn on Obama. They see what’s happening in the early returns. Please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119327/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119299/posts
1.8) If you have not considered that Democratic Presidential campaigns would try to browbeat you into thinking that a Democrat win was inevitable, and that you should side with “history,” and vote with everyone, please read http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117212/posts
1.85) According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2118129/posts, McCain is polling evenly in early voting exit polls in a county that has 28% more Democrats. Repeat: DEMOCRATS ARE VOTING McPALIN!!!
1.9) Oh yeah, the “Joe the Plumber” video isn’t the only time Obama has let fly with his “spread the wealth” worldview. He blabbed about it profusely in 2001 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2116921/posts
2) “Polls” that show Obama ahead tell a different story when internals are studied. Please see http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/an-eeyore-free-zone for a primer on how polls are cooked. UPDATE: Rasmussen saying McCain ahead in Florida and Ohio.
And now, a brief history lesson of ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS:
1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41%, (+9.75 Reagan) Reagan won 45 states.
1984: Regan 58.77%, Mondale 40.56% (+18.21 Regan) Reagan won 49 states.
1988: Bush 53.37%, Dukakis 45.65% (+7.72 Bush) Bush won 42 states.
1992: Clinton 43.01%, Bush 37.45%, Perot 18.91% (+5.66% Clinton) Clinton won 30 states.
1996: Clinton 49.23%, Dole 40.72%, Perot 8.40% (+8.49% Clinton) Clinton won 31 states.
2000: Bush 47.87%, Gore 48.38% (Gore +0.49%) Bush won 30 states.
2004: Bush 50.73%, Kerry 48.27% (Bush +2.46%) Bush won 31 states.
NO WAY is Obama up 14 points!
3) Hillary and Bill are not acting like they want Obama to win, since she wants to run again in 2012, despite what she alludes to. Notice Hillary has not gotten Berg to cut it out with his “birth certificate” lawsuit.
4) “Hussein” being Obama’s middle name is still news to most people.
5) A picture of Obama dressed as a Muslim (there are at least three) is still worth 1000 words (3000 in this case). Man your email station! Post bills!
6) The PUMAs who know the hows and whys of Hillary getting cheated, will vote Palin, and will pull others. Check out http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=33711&page=3 and http://democrats-against-obama.org. Freeper lonestar67 says, “Surveys have suggested that as many as 20-30% of Democrats may vote for McCain based on the rejection of Hillary. If even fractions of these claims are true, Obama would be hard pressed to win the election— especially in key states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio.”
7) “[Bitter Clingers] to [Religion and Guns]”, will vote McCain, so much so that 22K of the 45K in Grand Junction, Colorado came out to see her http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110920/posts.
8) The Palins ARE America and the conservative base. America and the conservative base will vote accordingly. According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2106836/posts parts of the country that were not fired up about the election, are working for Palin. She draws THOUSANDS at every campaign stop.
9) The NRA has “8 figures” of ads to unload in “swing” states
10) At one point, Obama was only 5 points up in New York! New York!
11) The Democrats were talking about Democratic consultants freaking out over Obama mis-managing his campaign before they settled into poll alteration.
12) The Enemedia is already spreading the meme that if Obama loses, it “is racism”. They see the tea leaves ...
13) The Media was calling the election for Kerry ELECTION MORNING in 2004, and Carter and Reagan polled evenly on election day! SOMEONE is trying to buffalo us with these polls! For more on the history of polls leaning Democrat, please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2106669/posts Both Zogby and Mike McCurry predicted a Kerry win.
14) McCain has only started to play the Ayers card. McCain has not yet played the Tony Rezko, Odinga, ... more at http://www.barackbook.com
15) Plenty of long-time Democratic voters are http://thehill.com/dick-morris/undecideds-should-break-for-mccain-2008-10-28.htmlnimpressed with Obama, and will not vote for him. Two midwestern transplants have volunteered to me that they know lifelong Democrats who WILL NOT vote for Obama. The 1st hand accounts here on Free Republic about lack of enthusiasm for Obama relative to Kerry similarly bodes poorly for Obama.
16) Obama has only 75% of the Jewish vote last I checked, just like Kerry (comfortable R win). Gore got 90% (close R win). Please see http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_and_the_jewish_vote.php and http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08293/921167-470.stm
17) The Christian base that re-elected Bush in 2004, knows Sarah is more than a Sunday Christian, and is praying for her.
18) McCain opened 50 offices in California. It’s in play! It should be the bluest of the blue, and it is not.
19) Google “Bradley Effect”. Obama is getting poll votes he’ll never get on election day. PUMAs have also agreed to lie to pollsters about supporting Obama, and are encouraging others to do so.
20) Operation Chaos resulted in an overlarge quantity of Democrat registrations that will never ever vote Democratic.
21) Obama’s “spread the wealth” line to Joe the Plumber will cost him undecideds not ready to etch the current class structure in stone.
22) The Enemedia overstating Obama’s popularity will cut two ways. The lazy, and the youth, (core Democrat constituencies) will not brave traffic and lines to vote on election day, since they were lied to by the KGBMedia to believe that Obama has a gigantic lead. In fact, if I worked for the GOP, I’d make sure free beer/music parties were being held outside of every major blue city before/on election day. They’re called “raves”.
23) There is a group playing Jeremiah Wrights ads. Read more about it http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108462/posts, and to donate visit https://www.completecampaigns.com/FR/contribute.asp?campaignid=OCDBPac.
24) The Obama crew already knows they’re going to lose. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110803/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2103037/posts
25) Kerry won the Nickelodeon kids vote 57/43, and Obama won it 51/49! If you don’t think kids vote like their parents, then you got another thing coming! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110843/posts
26) Freeper lonestar67 says, “... the misogynist treatment of Palin by the media elite has provided additional elements to the coming silent backlash— especially among women.”
27) Three people over 50 (white male and two Mexican women), on two occasions, on October 25th, asked me if I know about Obama not being a citizen. My Dad knows, and he emailed all his friends also. Point being, EVERYBODY KNOWS that Obama ain’t benevolently and humbly forthcoming with his birth certificate, and thus something fishy is afoot in Camelot.
28) Polls are meant by the Enemedia, to SHAPE public opinion, not to accurately report it. Get your news here! Stop torturing yourself! We bring the liberal media lies here, and we dissect them through the lenses of Christianity and Conservatism.
Make sure you ...
1) campaign and/or pray and/or donate
2) vote
3) wear the gracious smile of a victor
Fellow Freepers, please feel free to post this list every time you see a Freeper or anyone feeling down, anywhere. No need to credit me or ping or write me.
Let me know if you have any other under-reported reasons for the coming McCain/Palin win.
Please tell me if you think there are mistakes.
Hey Obama supporters!! Taxes kill businesses, which kills jobs, which kills people.
interesting
That statement seemed just a little TOO public to me. Could it have been disinformation aimed at Republicans?
read later
The pollsters use data from the number of registrations for different parties in the local area. For instance if in your county you happen to have 75% democrat registration then the polls will represent 75% democrats.
So if Acorn is out there stuffing the registration rolls with cartoon characters and household pets then you’re going to get an oversampling of democrats.
That’s my story and i’m stickin to it.
nor does it impress me that more rats are sampled....there are more rats out there than pubs....
no...I simply believe that the polls are wrong....at my house, we get calls for surveys, not necessarily political ones, but we never do them...
I don't think family people or conservatives care much about wasting time with surveys....
plus, I maintain, that if these samples are random, then the samples represent MORE people from NYS and CAli and ILL than smaller states....there's simply more names to pull from in NYS and Cali.....
polls be damned.....
MCCAIN AND SARAH PALIN ARE WINNING THIS WHOLE THING!
One such confounding factor gives me some comfort. I think the polls will tend to miss the full effects of recent negative discoveries about Obama.
Consider potential new young voters that were impressed by Obama back before Rev Wright became infamous. They registered democrat and voted for Obama in the primary...but then the blush came off the rose, and they concluded Obama was just as slimy as the other politicians. So they tune out...and Nov 4 just comes and goes like any old day.
Despite them no longer participating, they are still a registered democrat. No pollster calls, because being new young voters, they aren't listed, or don't have a land line, or they work a service job and weren't home at dinner time. However, the pollster calls older more dedicated registered democrats on their behalf.
You are absolutely right- all of us who are able to need to Get Out The Vote by ferrying people who can't get to the polls.
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