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Analysts Eye Possible Exit Poll Overstatement Of Obama Support
Sinchew.com ^ | October 24, 2008 | Sinchew

Posted on 10/25/2008 5:02:33 AM PDT by HalfFull

WASHINGTON, DC: On presidential election day, November 4, all eyes will be on what exit polls say voters did, and analysts fear they could give a rosier view of support for Democrat Barack Obama than reality.

The combination of the exclusion of early voting, and the greater tendency of young voters--more often Obama supporters--to take part in the surveys, could skew the results of the exit polls, which, taken just as voters leave polling booths, are the closely-watched first indicators of how the election is going.

In a National Journal article in March, Mark Blumenthal of pollster.com stressed that overestimation of Obama support was already seen in Democratic primaries earlier in the year.

In 18 of 20 states he reviewed, votes in favour of Obama, who at that time was duelling Hillary Clinton for the party's White House nomination, were overestimated by an average of seven points.

The gap was likely due to the fact that many of Obama's most fervent supporters, often younger, more politically active and in many cases better educated than Clinton's, were more inclined to respond to exit polls.

The same thing could happen on November 4 if Obama voters turn out to be markedly younger than those of his Republican rival John McCain.

According to a recent Gallup poll, 65 percent of voters aged 18-29 plan to vote for Obama, against 31 percent for McCain.

Meanwhile, pollsters themselves tend to be on the younger side.

"One problem (with polls) has been that interviewers tend to be young people, and older voters are less likely to respond to young pollsters--if most of the interviewers this year are again young people, that might lead to some overstatement of the Obama vote," said Herb Weisberg, a professor of political science at Ohio State University.

Weisberg also stressed the unknown factor: ballots cast before November 4--which researchers say could total as much as one-third of the national total.

"Another problem will be that many votes are being cast absentee (early) this year. Exit polls can't pick up these votes," Weisberg said.

"Some pollsters will undoubtedly do phone surveys the weekend before the election to ask people if they've already voted and how they've voted, as a means of trying to capture this effect."

Exit polls have been conducted since 2003 by the National Election Pool (NEP), a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News, which uses the Edison media research and Mitofsky International to carry out the post-voting voter questioning across the country.

On November 4, the Edison/Mitofsky team plans to carry out more than 100,000 interviews of voters at more than 1,000 US polling stations.

Concerns about the accuracy of this particular type of polling are nothing new.

In the 2004 presidential election, early exit polls gave a slight advantage to Democrat John Kerry, prompting some premature celebrating by Democrats and hand-wringing by Republicans, only to have George W. Bush eventually win the White House.

"People ought to be very skeptical of leaked (exit poll) results they might see between 5:00 pm Eastern Time (2200 GMT) and when the polls close on November 4," Blumenthal said. (AFP)


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; bo; election2008; elections2008; exitpolling; exitpolls; msm; obama; polls
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To: Popman
Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't the MSM decide not to call any states until 10:00 pm in 2004 because of 2000 ?

Thats correct but in 2004 the issue was the scandalously incorrect exit polling that served the same purpose...to suppress Republican turnout.

Perhaps this time the polls combined with the hubris of Obama supporters will keep the Dems home so they can get an early start on their post victory looting celebration. A little rain on election day wouldn't hurt either.

Point is, ignore everything you here on Nov 4 and vote, tell everyone you know to vote, drive them, hell, carry them there if you have to.

61 posted on 10/25/2008 7:07:17 AM PDT by JrsyJack
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To: HalfFull

Another article hinting that the polls are wrong and Obama may not win. Keep them coming.


62 posted on 10/25/2008 7:08:05 AM PDT by Betty Jane
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To: HalfFull
"One problem (with polls) has been that interviewers tend to be young people, and older voters are less likely to respond to young pollsters -- if most of the interviewers this year are again young people, that might lead to some overstatement of the Obama vote," said Herb Weisberg, a professor of political science at Ohio State University.

Hey guys BUY A CLUE. It's not the 'young pollsters' per se. It's that OLDER voters have .... J-O-B-S. They're voting on their way to work, their lunch hour (as in 60 minutes), or on the way home and are t-i-r-e-d (see: 'work').

I've never seen a pollster but I did, and if I had the time I'd talk to them. Now would I tell them the truth ... uh, NO :-)

In 2004 I remember Bill O'Reilly being completely flummoxed over the WV exit polls that he wouldn't report anything, just that something didn't look right (It showed Kerry waaaaaaaaay ahead and everyone, like Barone, knew that was BS). The actual Vote Totals finally proved that.

63 posted on 10/25/2008 7:09:12 AM PDT by Condor51 (The only difference between Bill Ayers and Timothy McVeigh is the body count!)
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To: Mrs.Z

We got polled like crazy during the primaries.

Now, the phone’s got cob webs on it.


64 posted on 10/25/2008 7:10:12 AM PDT by 2111USMC
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To: Yankee

Given that Hussein is nursing a 1-3 point lead over McCain in that vast majority of the polls means that he is in big trouble!


65 posted on 10/25/2008 7:11:31 AM PDT by TMA62 (TMA62)
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To: TMA62

What was his underformance rate in the primaries?


66 posted on 10/25/2008 7:13:30 AM PDT by JrsyJack
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To: RockinRight
He and Michelle will be furious, not in tears, and they will tell their supporters to go get pie.

It will not be like Kerry supporters in 2004. It will be a terrible riot in every blue urban area. I expect firebombings, this time, if they lose and just a general selective trashing if they win.

67 posted on 10/25/2008 7:21:08 AM PDT by reformedliberal
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To: HalfFull

My understanding is that NO exit polling can be released before the close of voting nationwide. This was put in place precisely because of what happened in 2004.

Am I wrong?


68 posted on 10/25/2008 7:21:32 AM PDT by 101voodoo
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To: JrsyJack

I don’t have the stats of the primarys but I know that prior to the primary, Hussein was running close to Hillary. But Hillary won the primary by a much larger margin than the polls.

IOW, a small lead for Hussein now is not good for him. For him to be really confident, he should be at least up by 15 points now.


69 posted on 10/25/2008 7:21:42 AM PDT by TMA62 (TMA62)
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To: Yankee

While I hadn’t heard this I know from my own perspective I’ve got to believe it’s true. I only have cell phones now but when I had a land line I very rarely would take a poll when called.


70 posted on 10/25/2008 7:25:40 AM PDT by WHBates
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To: JrsyJack
Point is, ignore everything you here on Nov 4 and vote, tell everyone you know to vote, drive them, hell, carry them there if you have to.

I'm telling all the Obama supporters I know because of the tremendous number of people voting for Obama it's O.K. to wait a day and vote Wednesday so they don't become disenfranchised by being denied the vote by GOP voter suppression tactics !

71 posted on 10/25/2008 7:28:10 AM PDT by Popman (Dont worry Barney Frank has your ass-ets covered!!!)
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To: HalfFull

You can bet the DNC is telling everyone to vote early and find exit pollsters to dampen West Coast Repubs.

Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops


72 posted on 10/25/2008 7:29:45 AM PDT by bray (It's the Corruption Stupid)
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To: Tarpon
I think the next time any one from the Obama campaign throws the race card down, Sarah Palin should address it head on with something like this: There it is again. Every time some truth comes out about Senator Obama comes out, they want to call us and you racist. Well, let me just say it is not racist to point out that Obama's financial adviser helped bankrupt Fannie Mae and helped put us in this financial mess; it is not racist to point out that Obama's preacher hates America even if Obama says he never heard it; it is not racist to call Obama a community organizer when he helped Acorn with voter registration and suing Fannie Mae to make bad loans to people who couldn't afford them, it is not racist to call Obama a socialist, more than 50 democrat members in congress are socialists and there not all black, it is not racist to disagree with Obama, which is what he and his campaign want you to think. If he were to, God forbid, become president, would he cry racism to world leaders if they dislike his positions. Let me say one thing to Senator Obama, Man up.

I know many of you are fearful of being called racist. We know it's not true and it's time to challenge that wrong and evil assumption. They want to intimidate you. That is not the American way. Do you want to know what's racist? Not criticizing a presidential candidate because he is black; not looking into his past participation in organizations engaged in wrong and evil behavior because he's black; not properly vetting him, because he's black; voting for someone simply because he's back. That's racist. Senator Obama is running for President, not Prom King. It's time for us to all man up.

73 posted on 10/25/2008 7:37:28 AM PDT by Betty Jane
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To: Betty Jane

Yeah, that is a good retort. I wish more of our ‘soft-shelled’ Republicans would pick up on it and ram it where ...


74 posted on 10/25/2008 7:40:20 AM PDT by Tarpon (Barack Obama will ban all the guns he has the votes for ...)
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To: HalfFull

Yeah I can picture what it will be like on CNN, MSNBC and the big 3 networks starting around noon...

“Based on exit polls, we have called Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina for Barack Obama.”


75 posted on 10/25/2008 7:44:21 AM PDT by EdnaMode
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To: Non-Sequitur
You would think they would have learned their lesson after the exit poll fiasco of 2004.

Ah, but they did. That's the point.

76 posted on 10/25/2008 7:44:44 AM PDT by Entrepreneur (The environmental movement is filled with watermelons - green on the outside, red on the inside)
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To: EDINVA
“Obama’s most fervent supporters, often younger, more politically active and in many cases better educated ...”

I don’t buy that Obama supporters are ‘better educated’ .. they may have more schooling, but better educated? I think not.

Well, let's hope the get "schooled" on 11/5.

77 posted on 10/25/2008 7:47:22 AM PDT by Entrepreneur (The environmental movement is filled with watermelons - green on the outside, red on the inside)
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To: sunmars
McCain needs to get ahead of the groove and make sure people know not to trust pollsters and media on election day and just get out and vote and wait for the results.

Excellent idea. They need to be stating this every time they are in front of a camara from now through the close of all election polls. They are being too timid to say that they think the polls aren't accurate, they should be insisting that none of their supporters should listen to the polls because they have been consistently wrong and the media has not been honest. Don't play nice with a media that is so blantently vicious, dishonest, and completely lacking in integrity. The last two presidential elections probably would not have even been that close had people ignored the constant drum beat of it's already over by the media.
78 posted on 10/25/2008 7:51:12 AM PDT by TimPatriot
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To: Entrepreneur

Typically, college students are hugh Obama supporters. I attribute that to immaturity and a total lack of real world experience that is shared by older Obama supporters, most of whom never ran a business.

Typically, these students are kids living off mom and dad’s largesse (or guilt), never had to earn a living wage, put a roof over their heads, food in their stomachs. It started in the 60s and has only gotten worse with passing generations. Now, there is a sense of entitlement.

When my kids were early 20s, they wanted to go out on their own. Ok, that’s fine by me. I asked if they could afford not ony the rent, but the groceries, phone, internet connection, cable tv, auto maintenance and insurance. Stupid move on my part, they stayed at home!


79 posted on 10/25/2008 8:10:14 AM PDT by EDINVA
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To: Entrepreneur
That's an old liberal canard. Remember that Republicans are mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging, Neanderthals.

Ironically, in a recent poll some 60% of the "better educated" Obama supporters couldn't name his running mate or the current Vice President. Let's face it, to the college age crowd Obama has a certain appeal. They already get free education, free housing, free meals and free medical benefits. The fact that it all comes from the hard work and sacrifice of their parents is lost on them

Once they graduate and see the tax bite out of their wages they will "mature."

80 posted on 10/25/2008 8:18:55 AM PDT by JrsyJack
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