Posted on 10/25/2008 5:02:33 AM PDT by HalfFull
WASHINGTON, DC: On presidential election day, November 4, all eyes will be on what exit polls say voters did, and analysts fear they could give a rosier view of support for Democrat Barack Obama than reality.
The combination of the exclusion of early voting, and the greater tendency of young voters--more often Obama supporters--to take part in the surveys, could skew the results of the exit polls, which, taken just as voters leave polling booths, are the closely-watched first indicators of how the election is going.
In a National Journal article in March, Mark Blumenthal of pollster.com stressed that overestimation of Obama support was already seen in Democratic primaries earlier in the year.
In 18 of 20 states he reviewed, votes in favour of Obama, who at that time was duelling Hillary Clinton for the party's White House nomination, were overestimated by an average of seven points.
The gap was likely due to the fact that many of Obama's most fervent supporters, often younger, more politically active and in many cases better educated than Clinton's, were more inclined to respond to exit polls.
The same thing could happen on November 4 if Obama voters turn out to be markedly younger than those of his Republican rival John McCain.
According to a recent Gallup poll, 65 percent of voters aged 18-29 plan to vote for Obama, against 31 percent for McCain.
Meanwhile, pollsters themselves tend to be on the younger side.
"One problem (with polls) has been that interviewers tend to be young people, and older voters are less likely to respond to young pollsters--if most of the interviewers this year are again young people, that might lead to some overstatement of the Obama vote," said Herb Weisberg, a professor of political science at Ohio State University.
Weisberg also stressed the unknown factor: ballots cast before November 4--which researchers say could total as much as one-third of the national total.
"Another problem will be that many votes are being cast absentee (early) this year. Exit polls can't pick up these votes," Weisberg said.
"Some pollsters will undoubtedly do phone surveys the weekend before the election to ask people if they've already voted and how they've voted, as a means of trying to capture this effect."
Exit polls have been conducted since 2003 by the National Election Pool (NEP), a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News, which uses the Edison media research and Mitofsky International to carry out the post-voting voter questioning across the country.
On November 4, the Edison/Mitofsky team plans to carry out more than 100,000 interviews of voters at more than 1,000 US polling stations.
Concerns about the accuracy of this particular type of polling are nothing new.
In the 2004 presidential election, early exit polls gave a slight advantage to Democrat John Kerry, prompting some premature celebrating by Democrats and hand-wringing by Republicans, only to have George W. Bush eventually win the White House.
"People ought to be very skeptical of leaked (exit poll) results they might see between 5:00 pm Eastern Time (2200 GMT) and when the polls close on November 4," Blumenthal said. (AFP)
“Obama’s most fervent supporters, often younger, more politically active and in many cases better educated ...”
I don’t buy that Obama supporters are ‘better educated’ .. they may have more schooling, but better educated? I think not.
I agree...we fire more young graduates then ever before. It is startling how they only want to do the absolute minimum. I have seen this trend go up rapidly during the last 15-20 years in business.
And they all feel their worth is much more than it is...especially early on. I keep getting a sense that they feel entitled and the heck with earning their place.
What's the big hurry for something this important? Get it right, not get it fast. What is this... a Burger King or MacDonalds? Can we be serious about anything?
Of course all that heavily sponsored election day coverage wouldn't happen. Is this about money? ...oh sorry.
The MSM will never own up to an exit poll lead for McCain. It simply won't be reported.
I thought billions of people were standing in 5 hour long lines to vote for Obama right now. What use will an exit poll be on November 4?
Polls were only off 7-10% during the primaries.
I wonder why the media would think any American would vote for a communist just because they are black.
If any FReepers are asked anything by any exit poller(s): here is your retort:
“I voted for my Messiah Obama. Thanks to my ACORN registrations, I’m going to the next presinct to vote for my Messiah Obama again.”
I think you should say "I voted for Cynthia McKinney". It would be hilarious to see her get 5-10% in exit polling.
I don’t know what the process is for exit polls but I think that all of us Republicans should try to be exit polled. We should tell the pollsters that we are Democrats, we support Hillary Clinton for President in 2012 and voted for John McCain to keep the White House warm till 2012.
If enough of us did that and if McCain won the election, it would make heads explode in the Democrat Party and the MSM. It would also ensure a Civil War in the Democrat Party.
They did... they will lie better this time.
***poll refuse to take the survey.***
I have been voting for over 35 years and have NEVER, EVER ANSWERED ANY POLL.
Not face to face, not phone NONE.
How ‘bout the rest of you Freepers?
I bet if any of you do, you lie through your teeth just to drive them nuts.
They better start eying it now! They are already trying to throw the election by saying it is over, that dems are outvoting Republicans in early voting, blah, blah, blah.
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“I wonder why the media would think any American would vote for a communist just because they are black”
Well... because a surprisingly large number of Americans are about to do exactly that.
- John
I was polled twice. Once during the Clinton/Dole election and once during the Bush/Kerry election.
The first one seemed straight up so I answered the entire survey truthfully.
The other one was an obvious “push-poll” which asked questions from a decidedly left perspective. I cut them off after the third question.
Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't the MSM decide not to call any states until 10:00 pm in 2004 because of 2000 ?
Each election cycle I answer one poll. I tell them exactly what I think, or as close as I can come to that while keeping my answers 'G' rated.
(little pictures have big ears).
Three of the last four broke the connection before I think the poll was over. Go figure.
I think people are more likely to lie about their votes to an exit poller than to a phone poller. These exit polls are pointless.
Good point!
What a shame they haven’t shown any concern to the months of ridiculous pre-election polls showing Obama winning men by ten points, winning Catholics by 25 points, leading by 200 electoral votes, etc.
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