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If the AP numbers are true Obama is cooked
The Collins Report ^ | Oct.. 23, 2008 | Kevin “Coach” Collins

Posted on 10/23/2008 5:56:27 AM PDT by jmaroneps37

A new AP poll showing John McCain down by one point was indeed good news.

A quick read of its likely voter internals provides stunning news:

Obama’s base support is not there

Hiding down at the very end of the article was a stunning piece of bad news for Barack Obama: Democrat base support is just “eight of 10” and the Republican base support for McCain is 90%. Neither candidate can win with just 80% of his base support. The “even split” found among Independents clearly adds to Obama’s troubles if these numbers hold.

The Joe the Plumber factor

McCain has closed the gap with Joe and Jane the Plumber.

He now trails by just 4 points with likely voters making under $50,000. A month ago was down 26 points.

McCain has surged among rural voters and now has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.

He doubled his advantage among whites who haven’t finished college and now leads by 20 points.

McCain has gone from plus 10 to plus 20 among Whites who have not finished college. Among White college graduates he is even.

McCain now leads White women by 7 points and White men by 22 points. This is very good for McCain because Obama’s White male vote might still be in the upper 30’s. Since Al Gore and John Kerry got 36%, it is very unlikely that his support among White males will do anything but fall just as Kerry’s did in the last two weeks in 2004.

Improving even on a strength, McCain is now up 24 points with married Whites, and trails by just 8 points among unmarried Whites.

Last month’s survey gave Obama a 15 point advantage on handling the economy and the financial crisis. That advantage on both fronts is down to 6 points.

(Excerpt) Read more at Collinsreport.net ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; ap; appoll; mccain; obama
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To: jmaroneps37
Among White college graduates he is even.

More proof "education" does not equal intelligence...
61 posted on 10/23/2008 6:35:28 AM PDT by Kozak (Anti Shahada: There is no god named Allah, and Muhammed is a false prophet)
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To: jmaroneps37

That analysis tells me that Joe the Plumber has caused EMPLOYEES to realize that making EMPLOYERS (RICH?) the declared enemy of tax policy is not going to be good for EMPLOYEES.


62 posted on 10/23/2008 6:35:31 AM PDT by wayoverontheright
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To: saquin

That’s my concern as well.


63 posted on 10/23/2008 6:36:04 AM PDT by twigs
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To: arichtaxpayer

You poor thing, I hope your dad’s surgery went well.


64 posted on 10/23/2008 6:36:31 AM PDT by geege
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To: Reaganesque

Heck no. They just much the statement, so why would we doubt them?


65 posted on 10/23/2008 6:36:35 AM PDT by arichtaxpayer (We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail.)
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To: shadeaud
...didn't confront either candidate on their answers.

Spot on! The Driveby's don't challenge, they correct the Dim candidate if he says something out of sorts. Example: Steffe Stephanopolis correcting Obammy when he mentions his Mooselimb faith. Steffi quickly corrected him saying "you mean your Christian faith..." After wards, Obammy quickly corrects his Freudian slip of the tongue.....

66 posted on 10/23/2008 6:40:06 AM PDT by Thermalseeker (Silence is not always a Sign of Wisdom, but Babbling is ever a Mark of Folly. - B. Franklin)
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To: randita

They will come out because of Palin.


67 posted on 10/23/2008 6:43:21 AM PDT by Biggirl (Throw The Bums OUT!=^..^==^..^==^..^==^..^==^..^=)
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To: arichtaxpayer
“Do not change this channel”

Personally, I would have changed it to Faux Newz anyway.

68 posted on 10/23/2008 6:43:29 AM PDT by webschooner (Welcome to the wonderful world of Socialism -- kindly check your money and possessions at the door.)
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To: ozark hilljilly

“He’ll be on FoxNews in Jan. Guess it’s time to change my Dish level. Right now I do not get Fox News.”

And what really pi$$es you off is the fact that the same company that owns fox news also owns dish-network!

CNN is free but you have to pay extra for fox...grrrr.


69 posted on 10/23/2008 6:46:07 AM PDT by Beagle8U (FreeRepublic -- One stop shopping ....... Its the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: Beagle8U

Yeahhhh.....whut up wit’ dat??!!
Plus they have the ‘Bama brainwash channel running 24/7 too.
Ick.

I’d go with Direct, but they are just as bad...and cost more, too.
Watching our budget, dontcha know.


70 posted on 10/23/2008 6:51:00 AM PDT by ozark hilljilly ("The gloves are off, the heels are on."- Sarah Palin)
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To: jmaroneps37
McCain has surged among rural voters . . .

I'm in a rural area. I've seen about 3 dozen McCain/Palin signs, 1 "NOBAMA" sign, and 1 Obama/Biden sign.

Check out the trolly in Ocala, FL:


71 posted on 10/23/2008 6:53:37 AM PDT by Alice in Wonderland
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To: Reaganesque

I still hold to my theory that ‘undecideds’ are this large number of folks who usually vote Dem who just CANNOT stomach Obama, but have not yet digested the fact that they want to vote McCain/ Republican.

It is a sea change that takes a bit of time. I think they are, at this point, NOT for Obama. And I think they will, when the chips are down, vote McCain.


72 posted on 10/23/2008 6:54:39 AM PDT by bboop (Stealth Tutor)
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To: Boucheau; jmaroneps37; AuntB; Jeff Head; cgk; DaveLoneRanger; Perdogg
Seems pretty simple why the polls are wrong.

Everybody knows about how Oblama, and the media went after Joe the plumber. They know if they dare challenge the elite media, or the messiah, that trouble will surely follow. So the good folks of America are just paying lip service to the pollsters, and are going to be voting for McCain/Palin for the office. The logic is built into my new tagline.
73 posted on 10/23/2008 7:01:54 AM PDT by Issaquahking (Obama/Biden team puts their faith in Gov't. McCain/Palin team puts their faith in YOU!)
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To: DorisCCC

I’ll bet there are! A supplier stopped awhile back and said he wasn’t going to vote at all. After 20 minutes of Hubby telling him things he’d never heard about BO, he’s maaaaad and voting McCain. Hubby’s also had long conversations with two other business owners and swung their votes from Obama to McCain.

We live in a heavily Dem area... not liberals exactly, mostly hard-working manufacturing/factory types and the usual suspects that have sucked the government teat for generations. The working guys are voting McCain (most have never voted a Pub for any office in their lives) and the leeches are voting Obama.

We had to laugh when we drove by the house of the only customer to ever stiff us on a bill and they had an Obama sign in their front yard. lol


74 posted on 10/23/2008 7:02:59 AM PDT by nodumbblonde
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To: jmaroneps37

Yet in my liberal rag today there is an article on how the networks are scrambling to be able to fill up the time after 7pm (or earlier) on election day since it will be apparent that Obama has won then and people will not even need to watch tv for election results! This is now theater of the absurd.


75 posted on 10/23/2008 7:03:17 AM PDT by usmom
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To: theDentist
Not to be a cynic or a pain, but it seems folks are cherry-picking the closest polls and looking for indicators that favor McCain. The problem is, with so many many polls out there, the great majority of those polls show McCain behind.

Take the time to look at the internals of those polls, especially the weighting.

76 posted on 10/23/2008 7:09:18 AM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: Lady Heron

Absolutely.


77 posted on 10/23/2008 7:11:49 AM PDT by theDentist (Qwerty ergo typo : I type, therefore I misspell)
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To: jmaroneps37; All

If you want to be REALLY ENCOURAGED, click on the link and read the entire article.


78 posted on 10/23/2008 8:28:09 AM PDT by no dems ("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
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To: unixfox

Masses outnumber “sheeple”.


79 posted on 10/23/2008 8:31:39 AM PDT by no dems ("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
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To: auto power

I’m nervous about cherry-picking which polls we decide to give credence to...somebody is going to have a real hangover Nov. 5th...and the odds are still against it being the Dems.


80 posted on 10/23/2008 8:32:47 AM PDT by Keith (McCain-Palin Get off your duff and work to get them elected!)
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