Posted on 10/06/2008 2:54:21 PM PDT by tatown
Was just listening to Zogby and Rasmussen on Hannity, and Zogby seems to think that the race remains quite fluid. He compares it to 2000 & 2004. Over the next 4-weeks he expects the lead to flip back & forth as it has done over the past 4-weeks.
Ramussen was much more dire in that he seems to think that unless a big, external event happens the race is unlikely to fall back to 'within the margin of error'. It's too bad that Sean didn't quiz him on his weighting...
Well, Zogby was one of the worst pollsters of 2004, while Rasmussen was one of the best. Yet, Rasmussen was horrible in 2000! Maybe it is Zogby’s turn to be a good pollster again.
But wait...I thought it was already over..... /sarc
Sorry but I think Rasmussen’s wrong. McCain was absolutely stunning in Albuquerque today. This race will definitely tighten.
Rasmussen doesn’t have a good enough record to declare the race over which is just what he did. And if Sean had the brains the Good Lord gave him he would ask Rasmussen about how he is weighting his polls.
I don’t think that Rasmussen performed well at all in 2006.
They both use very outdated methods. They forget to include the brainwashed, the I am afraid to say I am not for Obama people, who really wont vote for him , but it is oh so cool to say it crowd and of course the I’m for Obami...but behind the booth...A black President...no way...bunch!
Sorry
He weights to account for the fact that there are more and more Democrats in the country.
Of course the race will tighten in the last days - they always do.
He did a real crappy job and came in 24th for the primary polling this year—behind Quinnipiac!
Race will play a factor. I think this is being underestimated. If stupidity is a factor then Barry’s choice of associates will have an effect.
The reason Rasmussen thinks it is over, at least from what he said on O’Reilly today, is because his internal polling numbers show that people believe the Republican attacks on Obama, yet they’re voting for him anyway.
Duh.
As I've said repeatedly, the polls will be "too close to call" by election day.
Today may be Obama's high-water mark. I saw an earlier story (reprinted here at FR) that had Obama way ahead.
The pollsters are going to have to start scaling back their transparent efforts to keep Obama's base fired up, to supress contributions to McCain/Palin, and to try to keep momentum going in Obama's direction.
This may be the point at which they have to start backing off to save their own credibility for next time.
Of course if Obama's elected, there may not be a next time.
Zogby is a big believer in the Bradley Effect, his poll is not “PC” and his models (AFAIK) do not forsee a massive youth vote turnout.
INOW, he stays within the historical 4% shift in party voting models.
Zogby is proof that when it comes to polls I’m as intellectually dishonest as they come because this year...
I LOVE ZOGBY!
We hold on to what we can.
McCain’s speech was good today. Maybe he knows that if he’s not willing to win going negative he won’t win at all...
29 days is forever. Rasmussen should know better.
He’s been waiting to do this, but felt constrained from doing it while the bailout issue was pending. Yet Obama felt no such constraint, and kept on the attack the entire past two weeks.
Really? Then I imagine you’d be willing to make a wager. I will bet you one thousand right now that Barack Obama doesn’t beat McCain by 8 points. I will also wager another thousand that Rasmussens weighting will prove to be wrong and biased toward overweighting dems. You want to put your money where your mouth is?
Even Clinton vs Bush tightened to a tie in the final week of 1992... then Lawrence Walsh indicted Weinberger and the rest is as they say.. history.
If so, oy yoy, yoy!
I look for this race to tighten because I finally got my yard signs today!
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