Posted on 09/16/2008 11:04:11 AM PDT by impeachedrapist
Ping for your thoughts and relevant data
I’m way out on the left coast, but I’d sure love to see some of these ‘safe’ Demo seats go Republican. I hope the McCain folks are going to start campaigning with those down-ticket soon. We need some coat (or skirt) tails!
Pollsters do not have the capability of polling the Camden and Essex counties cemetery vote.
I’m not privy to the schedule, but I know a week or so ago the McCain camp announced that Gov. Palin was going to do 30 or so fundraisers in 60 days. A lot of those are undoubtedly for Congressional, Senate and gubernatorial candidates. Perhaps Zimmer will be one of them.
If you’re hoping for a Lautenberg upset then I think you’re going to be sadly disappointed.
Easy. Two weeks before the election, have Rudy Giuliani move to Hoboken (using the “Clinton Carpetbag”), and put him on the ballot (citing the “Torricelli Two-Step”).
Profit.
Though I think it’s highly unlikely Rudy wants to be a Senator anymore.
Having said that the chances of Lautenberg losing are zero
zip
none
negative no chance in hell.
Impressive!
“Gov. Palin was going to do 30 or so fundraisers in 60 days.”
Cool! There are so many that would have a good shot with just a little help.
"Old Frank" got the cheat seat when the NJ Supremes fudged the rules for him to take over for the "Torch", and the Repubs just watched.
Strange stae, Jersey, it seems that no matter who has the power always gets corrupted too
Overall. Louisiana has the most Toxic waste dumps in the nation, Jersey has the most lawyers, because Louisiana had the first choice.
First, why would I be disappointed in hoping for an upset? I HOPE Navy's football team wins the national championship! Seriously, I really hope they do. However, I'll not put any money on it.
Second, did you even read any of the thread, any of the data points? Do you have any other data to counter it? Because I could be shown the error of my ways much more convincingly than by you and Artemis saying Zimmer won't win because we said so.
It's not an "argument". It's a prediction. Honestly I would love to be wrong, I just doubt that I am.
Fine. So what do you base your prediction on? Incumbency? Lautenberg's fundraising and poll numbers (at least the ones I dug up) are weak. NJ's voting history? Okay. But I can counter that Kerry only won the state 53-46% (much closer than most here probably suspected), and Bob Franks lost to Jon Corzine in the 2000 Senate race only 50-47% - after being outspent 10 to 1.
So what's the scoop? Clue us in, please.
But all else might not be equal this year. Lautenberg is 84 (and an old 84 at that). Zimmer seems to be a fiscally-conservative, socially moderate sort of Republican with some solid credentials. He wrote "Megan's Law" and has been a champion of government reform. He also went to Yale Law, but I'll try not to hold that against him. I'm a little surprised he's not running closer to Lautenberg, but it is New Jersey after all, and he is one of the Senate's most liberal members.
However, if McCain runs strongly in NJ, which polls are suggesting might be the case, a little coattail effect would not be out of the question, especially if McCain comes to the state personally. I wouldn't have believed that possible two months ago, but there it is.
Well you certainly have a lot of data to support your claim that Zimmer can win this seat. I have no data at all to offer you.
Wager?
Sure. Since you say Zimmer has zero, nada, nil, no chance in Hell, then I'm sure you'll be quite comfortable with giving me 250 to 1 odds. But to make the math a bit easier, and because I'm a nice person, I'll settle for 100 to 1 odds. I'll put up $5 that says Zimmer wins. You in?
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