It's not an "argument". It's a prediction. Honestly I would love to be wrong, I just doubt that I am.
Fine. So what do you base your prediction on? Incumbency? Lautenberg's fundraising and poll numbers (at least the ones I dug up) are weak. NJ's voting history? Okay. But I can counter that Kerry only won the state 53-46% (much closer than most here probably suspected), and Bob Franks lost to Jon Corzine in the 2000 Senate race only 50-47% - after being outspent 10 to 1.
So what's the scoop? Clue us in, please.