Fine. So what do you base your prediction on? Incumbency? Lautenberg's fundraising and poll numbers (at least the ones I dug up) are weak. NJ's voting history? Okay. But I can counter that Kerry only won the state 53-46% (much closer than most here probably suspected), and Bob Franks lost to Jon Corzine in the 2000 Senate race only 50-47% - after being outspent 10 to 1.
So what's the scoop? Clue us in, please.
Well you certainly have a lot of data to support your claim that Zimmer can win this seat. I have no data at all to offer you.
Wager?
Over half the NJ electorate weren’t NJ voters when Lautenberg won the Senate seat in 1982.
Yeah, but the electorate today is MUCH MUCH more liberal than the 1982 electorate. Entire countis have flipped from solid (R) heartland to 80% Democrat and disfunctional (R) country and local parties. Trust me on that, I live in one of the counties in the north, and it’s not as bad as the Central NJ collapse of the R party.
A very large plurailty of NJ voters are foreign born.
Another very large plurality is on government welfare/assistance (including major corporations)
Another very large plurality of NJ voters are government employees.
Those three groups together are well over 55% of the NJ electorate.
And Zimmer doesn’t even have a message to deliver, let alone a compelling message to these groups to woo them into voting for him.