Can Zimmer Steal Lautenberg's Senate Seat for the GOP?

Various ^ | 9/16/08 | impeachedrapist

[impeachedrapist]

New Jersey is now, according to recent polls, tantalizingly close in the Presidential race. While I do not suggest McCain/Palin expend resources for a NJ victory, this suddenly competitive state could cause more headaches for rejected (by Obama) Harry Reid.

Pulled from the Web:

In [a] poll, conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University, Lautenberg was leading Zimmer by 45 percent to 28 percent. The poll of 589 registered voters was conducted between June 17 and 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Here

25 Jul 08:
The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll released yesterday found Lautenberg leading Dick Zimmer by 45 percent to 37 percent among likely voters.
Here

12 Aug 08, Quinnipiac:
Democratic incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer 48 - 41 percent among likely New Jersey voters, a more select group than registered voters surveyed in previous polls.

19 Aug 08:
Democrat Frank Lautenberg has a 50%-32% lead over Republican Dick Zimmer in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a Zogby International poll released today.
Here

This was just a quick search and there are probably other polls out there. Please post 'em if you've got 'em. Regardless, these are NOT good numbers for an incumbent senator. Even the best of those polls only shows Lautenberg at 50%. If McCain/Palin simply make an appearance with Zimmer, it could boost his fundraising and name recognition substantially and perhaps make this one a nailbiter. At least one poll mentioned that Zimmer, despite serving as a NJ Congressional rep, still suffered (when the poll was conducted) from rather poor name recognition.

Others laughed at me (in a kind way) last week for suggesting Lautenberg could lose. That's fine. Just going on polls, I'd say Zimmer's got a shot at stealing a seat.

Then, after digging through FEC data from June 30th of this year, it appears at that time Lautenberg had $1.3 million in cash on hand, but $3 million in debt. Zimmer had $411K on hand, but only $277K in debt. So Zimmer actually appears to be in better shape as of the most recent FEC data.

Lautenberg has raised $6.2 million total, but spent every penny. And he still can't break 50% in the polls?!? If this race isn't on the GOP's radar screen, it should be.

[impeachedrapist]

I thought this warranted its own thread and discussion.

[impeachedrapist]

Ping for your thoughts and relevant data

[Twotone]

I’m way out on the left coast, but I’d sure love to see some of these ‘safe’ Demo seats go Republican. I hope the McCain folks are going to start campaigning with those down-ticket soon. We need some coat (or skirt) tails!

[impeachedrapist]

http://www.zimmerforsenate.com/pages/splash

[JohnLongIsland]

Pollsters do not have the capability of polling the Camden and Essex counties cemetery vote.

[impeachedrapist]

I’m not privy to the schedule, but I know a week or so ago the McCain camp announced that Gov. Palin was going to do 30 or so fundraisers in 60 days. A lot of those are undoubtedly for Congressional, Senate and gubernatorial candidates. Perhaps Zimmer will be one of them.

[Non-Sequitur]

If you’re hoping for a Lautenberg upset then I think you’re going to be sadly disappointed.

[RabidBartender]

Easy. Two weeks before the election, have Rudy Giuliani move to Hoboken (using the “Clinton Carpetbag”), and put him on the ballot (citing the “Torricelli Two-Step”).

Profit.

Though I think it’s highly unlikely Rudy wants to be a Senator anymore.

[Artemis Webb]

Of course you are right that this warrants its own thread.

Having said that the chances of Lautenberg losing are zero
zip
none
negative no chance in hell.

[Barb4Bush]

I guess he might be a little better than Lautenberg but Zimmer is a RINO. They've been running him for everything in New Jersey for the past few years and he can't win anything. If they're going to run Republicans that can't win over and over again in NJ, I'd prefer they choose one that has both a personality and a backbone, someone like Brett Schundler.

[impeachedrapist]

What a compelling argument. My data has been overwhelmed by your... uh... small, monosyllabic words.

Impressive!

[Twotone]

“Gov. Palin was going to do 30 or so fundraisers in 60 days.”

Cool! There are so many that would have a good shot with just a little help.

[Former Dodger]

Sadly, I agree.

"Old Frank" got the cheat seat when the NJ Supremes fudged the rules for him to take over for the "Torch", and the Repubs just watched.

Strange stae, Jersey, it seems that no matter who has the power always gets corrupted too

Overall. Louisiana has the most Toxic waste dumps in the nation, Jersey has the most lawyers, because Louisiana had the first choice.

[impeachedrapist]

If you’re hoping for a Lautenberg upset then I think you’re going to be sadly disappointed.

First, why would I be disappointed in hoping for an upset? I HOPE Navy's football team wins the national championship! Seriously, I really hope they do. However, I'll not put any money on it.

Second, did you even read any of the thread, any of the data points? Do you have any other data to counter it? Because I could be shown the error of my ways much more convincingly than by you and Artemis saying Zimmer won't win because we said so.

[Artemis Webb]

"What a compelling argument"

It's not an "argument". It's a prediction. Honestly I would love to be wrong, I just doubt that I am.

[impeachedrapist]

It's not an "argument". It's a prediction. Honestly I would love to be wrong, I just doubt that I am.

Fine. So what do you base your prediction on? Incumbency? Lautenberg's fundraising and poll numbers (at least the ones I dug up) are weak. NJ's voting history? Okay. But I can counter that Kerry only won the state 53-46% (much closer than most here probably suspected), and Bob Franks lost to Jon Corzine in the 2000 Senate race only 50-47% - after being outspent 10 to 1.

So what's the scoop? Clue us in, please.

[andy58-in-nh]

I was not even sure if Frank Lautenberg was still alive. Not that it would matter all that much in New Jersey these days, where any dead Democrat would beat any live Republican, all other things being equal.

But all else might not be equal this year. Lautenberg is 84 (and an old 84 at that). Zimmer seems to be a fiscally-conservative, socially moderate sort of Republican with some solid credentials. He wrote "Megan's Law" and has been a champion of government reform. He also went to Yale Law, but I'll try not to hold that against him. I'm a little surprised he's not running closer to Lautenberg, but it is New Jersey after all, and he is one of the Senate's most liberal members.

However, if McCain runs strongly in NJ, which polls are suggesting might be the case, a little coattail effect would not be out of the question, especially if McCain comes to the state personally. I wouldn't have believed that possible two months ago, but there it is.

[Artemis Webb]

Well you certainly have a lot of data to support your claim that Zimmer can win this seat. I have no data at all to offer you.

Wager?

[Antoninus]

He doesn't have a prayer. He's a liberal almost as bad as Lousenberg.

I won't vote for him. He's a pro-abort.

[impeachedrapist]

Wager?

Sure. Since you say Zimmer has zero, nada, nil, no chance in Hell, then I'm sure you'll be quite comfortable with giving me 250 to 1 odds. But to make the math a bit easier, and because I'm a nice person, I'll settle for 100 to 1 odds. I'll put up $5 that says Zimmer wins. You in?