FOX/Rasmussen Swing State Polling (OH, VA, FL, CO, PA)

Fox News/Rasmussen Reports ^ | 9/8/08 | Scott Rasmussen

[Norman Bates]

Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).

The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.

(snip)

Additionally, there were state specific timing issues in three of the five states. In Colorado, the city of Denver hosted the Democratic National Convention Colorado less than two weeks before the survey was conducted. In Florida, the survey was conducted as Hurricane Ike was approaching. In Virginia, the survey was conducted the day after Tropical Storm Hanna raced through the state.

It is not clear what, if any, impact these state-specific timing issues may have on the data.

[MMcC]

My mistake, I meant to say I don’t see it going Blue anytime soon.

It’s not so bad up here with the Elitists... most of the people I know are young families who wanted to get away from the Duval school system. Can’t really blame them for that. I also don’t know a single person in the area who doesn’t vote Republican. Right before the ‘04 election, I saw a couple of Bush volunteers start to come onto or little street when they stopped and laughed. EVERY house had a Bush sign in the yard and EVERY car had a Bush magnet.

But I also agree with you. Enough is enough as far as new construction. I’ve been here right at 7 years and it isn’t even the same place.

[jerry557]

Both campaigns said they expect Florida polls to be well within the margin of error through election night.

[manc]

very true, in 2004 the blacks came out in numbers because they thought and was told they were robbed, ARF

anyway they never changed the fact we still won with our state and like I have said before I have not seen one yard sign or know of anyone here who will be voting for him.
i have seen a few bumpers tickers for him but not many and that was my trip into Jacksonville

[manc]

very true, in 2004 the blacks came out in numbers because they thought and was told they were robbed, ARF

anyway they never changed the fact we still won with our state and like I have said before I have not seen one yard sign or know of anyone here who will be voting for him.
i have seen a few bumpers tickers for him but not many and that was my trip into Jacksonville

also love your username
too
my 10 year old son boxes around FL and he uses the lion heart inbetween his names

[richardthelionheart]

Mccain will not lose ohio. Barack Obama got slaughtered in the same counties that george wallace ran real strong in in 1968. Wallasce’s best congressional district returns outside the south were in ohio. Obama doesnt have a prayer based on this alone. Southern Ohio is going to be brutal for him outside athens and over the rhine.

[MMcC]

Should have been in response to #233

[richardthelionheart]

big fan of the name thanks
obama is going to get annihilated in clay, nassau and st. johns come election day
many florida voters are dems but they are not that liberal (i.e. racially liberal) that will be there downfall in florida the primary votes are telling
obama won every congresional district where blacks were a majority or near that in dem primary and little else.
polls skew based on old registration statistics on florida
further, the biggest falsehood is obama incresing black turnout it cant get higher based on turnout from 2004
however, as aformer resident of louisiana white turnout will increas based on anecdotal evidence from the mike foster cleo fields governors race.
white dems will not vote for black dems.

[richardthelionheart]

big fan of the name thanks
obama is going to get annihilated in clay, nassau and st. johns come election day
many florida voters are dems but they are not that liberal (i.e. racially liberal) that will be there downfall in florida the primary votes are telling
obama won every congresional district where blacks were a majority or near that in dem primary and little else.
polls skew based on old registration statistics on florida
further, the biggest falsehood is obama incresing black turnout it cant get higher based on turnout from 2004
however, as aformer resident of louisiana white turnout will increas based on anecdotal evidence from the mike foster cleo fields governors race.
white dems will not vote for black dems.

[jerry557]

What doesnt make sense to me is a poll showing Gov. Crist has a 61% approval rating and he won the governor election pretty easily.

But the polls are tied with McCain and Obama? Either the polling is bad one way or another, or the demographics are really funky (ie: Dems voted for Crist and now voting Obama).

[piasa]

link

JUNE 2008 EARLY : (OBAMA ANNOUNCES APPOINTMENT OF ERIC HOLDER {see Marc Rich}, JIM JOHNSON {see FANNIE MAE, COUNTRYWIDE} AND CAROLINE KENNEDY TO HEAD HIS VP SEARCH COMMITTEE) ...Last week, D'Oh-bama announced the appointment of D.C. denizens Jim Johnson and Eric Holder to head his veep search committee -- along with a Kennedy (Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg) ....
Holder was the Clinton Justice Department official in the middle of the sleazy pardon for fugitive financier Marc Rich.
Johnson, who has advised past failed Democratic nominees Walter Mondale and John Kerry, was CEO of the beleaguered, government-backed mortgage giant, Fannie Mae. Over the weekend, The Wall Street Journal reported that Johnson accepted more than $7 million in below-market-rate loans from scandal-plagued subprime lender Countrywide Financial Corp. The company's CEO, Angelo Mozilo, had set up a very special loan program for his high-powered pals. Johnson had named Mozilo to Fannie Mae's national advisory committee more than a decade ago and they maintained a cozy friendship.
Mozilo also happens to be one of Obama's fattest targets in his frequent broadsides against the demons of the mortgage industry. Obama likened Mozilo to a virus in March: "These are the people who are responsible for infecting the economy and helping to create a home foreclosure crisis."
Channeling Jesse Jackson, Obama further chided: "These executives crossed the line to boost their bottom line." During the battle with Hillary, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe was dispatched to the cable TV airwaves to inveigh: "If we're really going to crack down on the practices that caused the credit and housing crises, we're going to need a leader who doesn't owe these industries any favors." And so on.
Yesterday [JUNE 10, 2008 TUES] , after a barrage of questions from McCain bloggers, Countrywide critics and Clinton operatives, ABC News asked Obama about the stunningly obvious hypocrisy. The result was, well, painful.
Struck with an apparent case of restless mouth syndrome, Obama first indignantly rejected the notion that he should pick his veep pickers more carefully: "Well, look, the, the, I mean -- first of all I am not vetting my VP search committee for their mortgages." ...
------ "D'OH-bama's Mortgage Industry Mess," BY Michelle Malkin , Townhall.com ^ | June 11, 2008 | Posted on Wednesday, June 11, 2008 1:28:16 AM by Kaslin

[richardthelionheart]

jerry
in a race where race is an issue i believe the favorable ratings will demonstrate obama has no chance
remember obama has around 95 percent favs amongst blacks
factor in mccain and crist likely have around ten percent and you can see the lack of support for obama and the high percentage of support for mccain
race will trump everything here for these white democrats
mccain is the luckiest pol alive he had no chance against clinton but i believe either me or you could beat barack hussein obama
this is an in your gut election
deep down in ones soul is where many are going to be voting from

[TitansAFC]

Norman,

I am getting a little more positive about some of the state polls than I was a little while ago, and here's why:

The better pollsters are calculating their polls (adjusted numbers) based on party ID/Voter registration. The Dems have had a large advantage in new voter registration in the past few years (GOP actually lost some). So the numbers look better for Democrats in that respect.

BUT.....

New voters do not automatically amount to 100% turnout from those new voters — much less 100% Dem vote from those who do turn out. This would be the necessary return to justify an exact adjustment in the polling numbers. More likely, many of them will turn out to vote Dem, a small amount McCain, and a good number not at all. Thus, the poll adjustment for the new registration numbers is likely to taint the poll a slight bit to Obama.

This was the new voter problem that Zogby and Rasmussen were talking about last election - which made it hard to pinpoint turnout vs. registration accurately, and led to a statistical underestimating of GOP vote percentage.

In short, not all newly registered voters by Dems will turn out, and not all who turn out will vote Obama. Many will - but not all, which will artificially taint the polls ever so slightly in Obama’s favor vs. actual results on Election Night.

I think that CO is going to be tough to keep - but for the first time ever, I actually think Michigan might actually be in play, in part because of Kwame and the general disgust with the Dem machine in the suburbs.

[manc]

I hear you and to be honest you had me stunned when you first said about not red I hope you do not think I was attacking you about the elitist compounds comment I should have said some call them that me as well sometimes but I do know not all are so if you did then I am sorry We both agree the housing to be built has to stop it is destroying this county and our officials do not get it The likes of palencia and nocotee are horrible or Should say some of the people there are. I know this as my wife works for the county. some in palencia actually asked the county to build them a school as they did not want their kids to go to school with the likes of my kids my kids , I have 3 my ten year old won the boxing state championship, he has been all the time a grade A honour student, my daughter at 7 has been getting a's and my youngest has just started and the teacher is very proud of him saying please, thank you and listening but to them their kids should not mix with my kids I don't blame them getting out of Duval schools, though tomorrow I am going to our school to complain about a certain teacher who gives my oldest and the other 5th graders over 2 hours of homework and yet she did nothing in class today but talk about tornadoes she is basically doing nothing and making them do work at home, pure laziness I love this county and state and one of the things I love is no traffic but it is changing on 210 and US1. I was hoping Ben rich would get reelected as he is against all this construction. I hope you are right about not us turning blue. I found that flagler college does not allow homosexual groups or tings like that as the board is very conservative, just wished I could get my kids there

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

I haven’t seen her/him post in a long time. Expert in poll reading...she/he was GOOD!

DrDeb last posted YESTERDAY!

[manc]

I like your username

my 10 year old does boxing and won the FL state championship and uses lionheart inbetween his names

[manc]

agreed on those counties lets not forget that the panhandle is most certainly McCain territory.

I believe but don’t hold me to it that Volusia and Flagler is also red, orange is red but only just, I think putnam is too

[richardthelionheart]

okallosa will be aslaughter along with bay, santa rosa , walton and holmes, collier, lee and lake as well ion southwest,
congrats on your kids wife pregnant with our third here soon
dont lose sleep florida is as much in the bag as utah
i believe obama will not win dade county
hialeah is not going to vote for him second biggest city in dade county nor any areas west or south of there
demographics is destiny and youll see it borne out this november
good night

[manc]

good night and take care

[jerry557]

During the Florida primaries....

Democrats got 1.75 million votes
Republicans got 1.95 million votes

That’s only a gap of about 200,000 votes and many Dems didnt vote assuming their vote wouldnt count in the DNC.

I just think this is going to be a very close state.

[piasa]

http:/www.townhall.com/columnists/MichelleMalkin/2008/06/11/doh-bamas_mortgage_industry_mess

JUNE 2008 EARLY : (OBAMA ANNOUNCES APPOINTMENT OF HOLDER {see Marc Rich}, JOHNSON {see FANNIE MAE, COUNTRYWIDE} AND C KENNEDY O HEAD HIS VP SEARCH COMMITTEE) ...Last week, D'Oh-bama announced the appointment of D.C. denizens Jim Johnson and Eric Holder to head his veep search committee -- along with a Kennedy (Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg) ...
Holder was the Clinton Justice Department official in the middle of the sleazy pardon for fugitive financier Marc Rich.
Johnson, who has advised past failed Democratic nominees Walter Mondale and John Kerry, was CEO of the beleaguered, government-backed mortgage giant, Fannie Mae. Over the weekend, The Wall Street Journal reported that Johnson accepted more than $7 million in below-market-rate loans from scandal-plagued subprime lender Countrywide Financial Corp. The company's CEO, Angelo Mozilo, had set up a very special loan program for his high-powered pals. Johnson had named Mozilo to Fannie Mae's national advisory committee more than a decade ago and they maintained a cozy friendship.
Mozilo also happens to be one of Obama's fattest targets in his frequent broadsides against the demons of the mortgage industry. Obama likened Mozilo to a virus in March: "These are the people who are responsible for infecting the economy and helping to create a home foreclosure crisis."
Channeling Jesse Jackson, Obama further chided: "These executives crossed the line to boost their bottom line." During the battle with Hillary, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe was dispatched to the cable TV airwaves to inveigh: "If we're really going to crack down on the practices that caused the credit and housing crises, we're going to need a leader who doesn't owe these industries any favors." And so on.
Yesterday [JUNE 10, 2008 TUES] , after a barrage of questions from McCain bloggers, Countrywide critics and Clinton operatives, ABC News asked Obama about the stunningly obvious hypocrisy. The result was, well, painful.
Struck with an apparent case of restless mouth syndrome, Obama first indignantly rejected the notion that he should pick his veep pickers more carefully: "Well, look, the, the, I mean -- first of all I am not vetting my VP search committee for their mortgages." .....
------------ "D'OH-bama's Mortgage Industry Mess," BY Michelle Malkin , Townhall.com ^ | June 11, 2008 | Posted on Wednesday, June 11, 2008 1:28:16 AM by Kaslin