Posted on 09/08/2008 3:22:53 PM PDT by Norman Bates
Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).
The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.
(snip)
Additionally, there were state specific timing issues in three of the five states. In Colorado, the city of Denver hosted the Democratic National Convention Colorado less than two weeks before the survey was conducted. In Florida, the survey was conducted as Hurricane Ike was approaching. In Virginia, the survey was conducted the day after Tropical Storm Hanna raced through the state.
It is not clear what, if any, impact these state-specific timing issues may have on the data.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
It’s difficult to imagine losing CO with those numbers.
The calls are made in the evening.
Fade from where? These are almost identical numbers since before the convention.
McCain is at 61% fav in CO, he’s at 61% in FL, and 63% in OH.
Now don’t you tell me he’s opened up a 7-point lead in Ohio and is “tied” in Florida. You know it’s BS.
9/7/2008 New Gallup Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama 54%-44% among Likely Voters. McCain holds a 10 point lead.
9/8/2008 McCain Sees 17-Point Surge In USA Today Poll The USA Today/Gallup poll completed on September 7 has the McCain/Palin ticket holding a 10 point lead over Obama/Biden
” leading 5 to 10 points with likely voters in EVERY national poll”
He’s only leading by those kind of numbers in Gallup. The rest of the polls have it much more competitive. Pollster.com has all the recent horserace polls:
ABC McCain +2, CBS McCain +2, Diageo tie, Rasmussen McCain +1
Keep in mind, though, that the whole bump won’t become evident until tomorrow or Wed.
Up North and to the middle of the state live the highest concentration of conservatives IMO. Once you get down to Palm Beach and Broward, liberals and their philosophy (and screw ups) rule.
Miami-Dade is a contradiction. While we have very vocal and involved liberals, there is also a large group of conservatives that IMO are gaining strength. My hometown, Homestead, just elected a very Pro-Life, fiscal conservative for mayor (she was president of Florida Right to Life). I hope it's a trend.
The Keys are lost and considering the actual population of Monroe is relatively small compared to most areas of the state, I don't see them as an election turner.
Considering the amount of ex-military, mom and pop businesses, farmers etc that live in Florida, you'd think we'd be a very conservative state. The influx of northern liberals and immigrants has drastically changed the makeup.
Either Rasmussen’s 3-month rolling targets have become staid or Gallup is pulling our leg. It’s one or the other.
They both can’t be right. We can’t be up 10 points with likely voters and down 3 in CO, tied in FL. It doesn’t work that way.
Colorado and Florida is going for McCain. Honestly, with McCains approval ratings so high in those states no way Hussein wins them.
FL is one state where Palin pick hurts. It was polling +3/+4 redder than national vote before, now it will probably will go to 0/+1. Still, if McCain wins national vote, he has very good chance to carry Florida. But it will require some TV money, and boots on the ground.
McCain is polling well in the Midwest, and I think should take OH. MI and PA are still out of reach, unless he wins national vote by 2.5 - 3%. WI and IA are not in play, I think.
Actually, if Obama loses the popular vote by <1.5%, he still has a very good shot at winning the EC vote. He gets there by winning all Gore states (taking IA, WI, NM) and then either winning VA, or more likely CO. Or FL, if it breaks his way. McCain has to be ahead by 2% nationally to be safe.
Of course, all can change in 8 weeks, but McCain has to play his cards very carefully.
So if we agree that McCain is up 1-3 nationally then it doesn’t explain Ohio which is par for national and is up 7 here and Colorado which is above par for national and is under 3, and Florida which is slightly above par for national and is tied.
Dr. Deb is gone. Explain please.
Here’s how I see it... at first I was disappointed with these numbers, but its not bad for a couple of reasons.
If McCain wins the Bush 04 states except Iowa (-7), Colorado (-9), but holds on to Florida, Ohio, and Virigina, then he has 270 votes and he wins. I feel good about Florida (see RCP) and now feel better about Ohio. Two Virginia polls today show McCain up by 2.
If all that happens AND the Dems win one of Nevada or New Mexico then we have to win Michigan.
Rasmussen tracking seems to be closer (+1) than most other polls, especially for the “likely voter” marking - probably due to the party weightings. If we shift all these polls by the RCP average (ie. adding 2 point to McCain), then things look alot better.
What exactly is not true?
A dose of reality is a good thing after a week of Palinmania but it is only a single set of polls by a single pollster. And it’s not all bad news either.
FL ought to be simple, if in fact we aren’t running ads now. First, start them. Second, send Crist, Rudy and Lieberman on a “world” tour of the state. There is NO excuse not to win FL.
I haven’t seen her/him post in a long time. Expert in poll reading...she/he was GOOD!
I hope Fox quits wasting money on low sample polling where the Plus / Minus Margin of Error is 4.5%.
In close elections they are as useless and Obama’s community organizer experience.
I mean cumulatively, they show a positive trend for McCain who was down a week ago, but nonetheless, they are useless.
Almost all of them are within the margin or error.
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