FL is one state where Palin pick hurts. It was polling +3/+4 redder than national vote before, now it will probably will go to 0/+1. Still, if McCain wins national vote, he has very good chance to carry Florida. But it will require some TV money, and boots on the ground.
McCain is polling well in the Midwest, and I think should take OH. MI and PA are still out of reach, unless he wins national vote by 2.5 - 3%. WI and IA are not in play, I think.
Actually, if Obama loses the popular vote by <1.5%, he still has a very good shot at winning the EC vote. He gets there by winning all Gore states (taking IA, WI, NM) and then either winning VA, or more likely CO. Or FL, if it breaks his way. McCain has to be ahead by 2% nationally to be safe.
Of course, all can change in 8 weeks, but McCain has to play his cards very carefully.
FL ought to be simple, if in fact we aren’t running ads now. First, start them. Second, send Crist, Rudy and Lieberman on a “world” tour of the state. There is NO excuse not to win FL.
I hope Fox quits wasting money on low sample polling where the Plus / Minus Margin of Error is 4.5%.
In close elections they are as useless and Obama’s community organizer experience.
I mean cumulatively, they show a positive trend for McCain who was down a week ago, but nonetheless, they are useless.
Almost all of them are within the margin or error.