wins Colorado or Florida.
Posted on 09/08/2008 3:22:53 PM PDT by Norman Bates
Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).
The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.
(snip)
Additionally, there were state specific timing issues in three of the five states. In Colorado, the city of Denver hosted the Democratic National Convention Colorado less than two weeks before the survey was conducted. In Florida, the survey was conducted as Hurricane Ike was approaching. In Virginia, the survey was conducted the day after Tropical Storm Hanna raced through the state.
It is not clear what, if any, impact these state-specific timing issues may have on the data.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
wins Colorado or Florida.
I agree. In CO’s case since Obama was in the state it is his bounce that is going to fade.
I do think it will get there though.
This tells us little. With a 4.5 MOE the FL result could be McCain 52.5 Obama 43.5 or vice versa. OH is the only result that really leans strongly either way and is rather heartening. The rest are well within the MOE.
These will help paint a picture though, when we combine them with other polls. For instance SurveyUSA just came out with a VA poll that has the exact same result: 49-47 Mac. I love SUSA so it seems we have a close race in VA on our hands with a slight advantage. I want to see at least 3 polls before I really start deciding where it’s at though.
With Mac up about 3 in the RCP average I have to say I was hoping CO and VA would start to move towards our column due to their red nature. Lets see what happens over the next 10 days or so.
Here’s the problem with polling for this election...they are not taking into consideration all the young voters ..NOW, I know historically young voters don’t show up. But this year will be different, and even if just a percentage of these young (foolish) voters show up, it could effect this election. That’s why we need EVERYONE to get off their butts and get moving!
There’s just no way to know. Local newspapers have had articles about Obama registering 600,000 new black voters (Florida’s population is 16% black.) New registrants are not going to pass any pollster’s likely voter filter.
There are too many unknowables this time around to predict anything with confidence. McCain has high favorables, so maybe he wins the undecideds. Obama is big with the youth vote, which greatly increased turnout in 2004 and kept Kerry competitive with Bush. Kerry lost every age demographic except the under 30s. Most of the youth vote is cell phone only and therefore not included in Ras’ polling.
I will repeat what I said earlier. In the middle of McCain’s convention bump, these are not encouraging numbers for Florida. Maybe it’s an outlier. We’ll know soon enough.
I think the election overall is going to be a squeaker, with Florida among the squeakiest of states.
CO is not going for Obama.
Will you knock it off? There is no reason to be going after posters about a poll whose MoE is nearly 5%.
“It is axiomatic that Sundays are bad polling days for the GOP.”
It is also wrong, at least in a poll like Rasmussen, which norms for party affiliation.
Where is the bounce, HUH?
How in the world do you have someone leading 5 to 10 points with likely voters in EVERY national poll, and yet we see the same state results as two weeks ago, even with the McCain ruling Obama in the favorable/unfavorable internal numbers?
Maybe you are so doom and gloom you can’t see something isn’t gelling with this set of Rasmussen state polls?
Maybe *GASP* the people who said the state polls would lack a few extra days behind the national bounce were correct?
Nah, you are the poll “expert” around here. Sorry I mentioned a lag as a possibility and got your panties in a twist.
I didn't say anything about Republicans - I said it would reduce the number of conservatives responding to the polls. Big difference...
Man, that’s a high margin of error. Basically what I see is a surprising margin in Ohio and then a toss-up in all of the other states. I think I’ll wait for a poll with a bigger sample or some very distinct trends before I take things too seriously. There’s also Mr. Bradley and his Wonderful, Magical, Fantasmagorical Effect...
The passion from booth conventions will have completely worn off by then. We'll get a good pitcure of the state of the race.
It could be that McCain's bounce will completely erode and that Obama will move back in front. Or, it could be that McCain / Palin's support amongst the base and Indies will be consolidated and the lead will persist. Either way, these polls aren't going to mean a whole lot until then.
My guess is McCain is going to emerge with a very small lead, and that we are going to have to fight tooth and nail if we want to pull this off in November. I hope we are underestimating the GOP strength, but I'm fully expecting another nail biter.
“In the middle of McCain’s convention bump, these are not encouraging numbers for Florida.”
I don’t need you to tell me or anyone else that.
“..., with Florida among the squeakiest of states.”
That was supposed to the case in 2004 and GWB ran away with it. It’s a Sunday poll with a 4.5% MOE, Hillary and Biden were just there and Obama is spending big money on TV, Mac’s spending nothing on media.
LadyNavyVet always provides the most pessimistic take possible on the polls. She was telling us all that McCain was blowing Florida a couple of months ago, shortly before he opened up a nice lead there.
My guess is she is doing the exact same thing again. We should find out for sure in the next week or so.
Exactly. Look at all the other National polls out today. Obama is going down, down, down. The liberals are in a panic.
“...if you’re so critical of Mac’s FL numbers...”
He’s doing worse than he was before his convention bump. I should celebrate that to make you happy? I call ‘em as I see ‘em, whether you or I like the call or not. There are enough pie-in-the-sky “everything’s great” posters around here that this site doesn’t need another one. They were here in 2006, too, at least until election night.
“Mac isn’t spending money in FL, what does that tell you...”
It tells me he needs to.
A +2 in PA right now means that PA is approximately 4 points bluer than the overall country right now. Axelrod, who knows how to read polls, is happy with that.
Remember, we’re in the middle of McCain’s convention bump. Some of it will undoubtedly fade. It always does, at least somewhat. He needs to do better than just barely hold on to these swing states to still be competitive when the convention glow wears off. OH is the only state in this round of polling where he’s done that.
Like I said, there’s no lag... Absolutely none. If, however, you’re looking at a national poll that shows JM ahead, and generically look at state polls, then it’s a lagging indicator cause individual states hadn’t been polled yet... As soon as you do the poll in a state, the lag IN THAT state is gone... Agree?
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