[jerry557]

During the Florida primaries....

Democrats got 1.75 million votes
Republicans got 1.95 million votes

That’s only a gap of about 200,000 votes and many Dems didnt vote assuming their vote wouldnt count in the DNC.

I just think this is going to be a very close state.

[zebrahead]

Here’s my take on Florida. McCain has only spent on national advertising while Obama has spent more than $6 million in local TV adds. I have faith in the state GOP after they turned out over a million more votes for Bush in 2004 than in 2000 (3,964,522 to 2,912,790). They also showed their strength in Charlie Crist’s victory in the 2006 governor’s race. This was a bad year for the GOP and Crist still won by over 330,000 votes. Crist received just under 2.5 million votes. Not quite Bush’s 380,000 vote margin from 2004 but still very solid nonetheless. Crist won Jacksonville, Tampa, and Orlando and he still got 45% in Miami. It’s tailor-made for McCain in many ways. Seniors, Cubans, and the large military population in the panhandle are the back-bone of McCain’s coalition and those groups show up on Election Day.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

What surprises me is that this poll (like all of them), assumes a ZERO Bradley effect. Nobody here has picked up on this. While no one is certain, I believe it is certain that this effect will be from 5% to 10% NET change in the results.

Allowing for this, the results of these polls are:

Ohio
McCain 53% to 56%
Obama 39% to 42%

Virginia
McCain 51% to 54%
Obama 42% to 45%

Florida
McCain 50% to 53%
Obama 43% to 46%

Colorado
Obama 44% to 47%
McCain 48% to 51%

Pennsylvania
Obama 42% to 45%
McCain 47% to 50%

Looks a little different this w2ay, doesn't it?

[tomymind]

Hillary won Florida primaries and the GOP is strong over there. No doubt we will win those EVs.