Posted on 05/21/2008 8:45:36 PM PDT by Red Steel
While Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) hangs in there, locked in a tough race with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), the Republican undercard is facing obliteration in the 2008 general elections for the Senate. Polling suggests that a massacre may be in the offing — and one that’s possibly even greater than the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.
Scott Rasmussen, whose site, www.rasmussenreports.com, follows these races closely, is producing truly hair-raising polling data.
Of the open Republican Senate seats in contention, Democratic victory seems very likely in Virginia (Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner now has 55 percent, while fellow former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore stands at 37) and New Mexico (where Democratic Rep. Tom Udall takes 53 percent to GOP Rep. Steve Pearce’s 37 and 57 percent to Republican Rep. Heather Wilson’s 36). In Colorado, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall has a narrow lead over Republican Bob Schaffer (45-42). Nebraska would seem safely Republican, but a humongous black turnout in Mississippi could elect former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, just as it led to a Democratic congressional victory in a bi-election this month. Score them: two Democrat, one leaning Democrat, one leaning Republican, and one Republican. A net loss of two or three seats.
And then there are the endangered incumbents. Three GOP senators are actually behind their Democratic challengers. Alaska’s Ted Stevens is behind Mark Begich by 47-45. Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan in North Carolina by 48-47. And Jeanne Shaheen is well ahead of John Sununu in New Hampshire, 51-43. Stevens’s legal problems and the likely huge black turnout in North Carolina make all three states lean Democratic at this point.
Even when GOP incumbents lead, they are perilously under 50 percent. In Oregon, as of this writing, Gordon Smith leads Jeff Merkley by only 45-42 and Steve Novick by 47-41. And in Texas, John Cornyn leads Rick Noriega by only 47-43. In addition, Norm Coleman in Minnesota is hanging on by his teeth against Al Franken, 50-43; Susan Collins is only narrowly ahead of Rep. Tom Allen in Maine, 52-42; and in Kansas, Pat Roberts holds only a 52-40 lead over Jim Slattery. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky may also be in trouble.
So, among incumbents, score it three leaning Democratic, two tossups, and three leaning Republican.
Overall, that’s a likely Democratic pickup of five seats, with an eight-seat gain possible, and, in a partisan wipeout, a 12-seat shift.
Mon dieu!
In all likelihood, the filibuster will still remain a theoretical Republican option, but, in practical terms, may be beyond reach, especially if Obama wins the White House.
Driving the GOP’s imperiled Senate situation, or course, is a massive shift in party identification. While the two parties are normally about tied in party ID, the Democrats now enjoy a 44-30 advantage in the latest Fox News poll of April 29.A combination of the Iraq war, gas prices, the credit crisis and a looming recession are dragging down the Republican Party, big time.
So is a president with a 28 percent approval rating. Bush needs to go out and tell America that things are bad, but not that bad. There are solid signs that the economy may not be tanking after all. Unemployment, while rising, is still at historic lows. The credit crisis has not led to a wholesale collapse of the financial industry and the instability appears to be easing. And, in Iraq, we are approaching a more stable situation with lower combat deaths. Bush, who has largely been hunkered down in the White House, needs to hit the trail and move his ratings up into the mid- or high 30s, not an insurmountable challenge.
Will the endangered Republicans recover? Most have prevailed, in the past, by lifting their personal ratings out of possible danger early in the race. But when long-term incumbents find themselves mired in the high 40s or low 50s in vote share, it indicates a massive voter desire for change that is not likely to abate.
In the House, the incredible three Democratic bi-election victories, combined with the retirements of so many Republican incumbents, indicates that the GOP may be facing disaster there as well.
This is not a good year to be a Republican.
Mick Dorris, stop telling lirty dies. It's never bad to be Republican, unless you're in the left wing.
There is NO WAY on God's earth that I'd ever vote for Juan McAmNasty, that CONSTITUTION TRASHING, CORRUPT egotistical rotten pond SCUM POS. McAmNasty has dishonored my Navy, he has dishonored my Country, and I'd say he's dishonored himself, but this Bastard is WITHOUT HONOR.
If that means the demonRAT wins, then it is the fault of the republican party. They need to EARN my vote by nominating someone who represents what the republican party USED to stand for. Things like FREEDOM, LIBERTY, LIMITED GOVERNMENT, SOVEREIGNTY, the CONSTITUTION ... you know, the things our Founders fought and died for, the same things that our HEROES in the Military fought and died for over the past 2+ centuries.
If you're willing to sell out for the lesser of EVIL, then you deserve the EVIL that will befall you. I'm just sorry that you're willing to drag my Country down with you. You and all the other so-called "moderates". You can go to hell without my vote.
While they're at it, it has to be explained that good executive talent is expensive but even if you took CEO's salary for a year used all of it to pay down the price of every gallon of gas sold in the U.S. over a year, it would amount to pennies.
Someone has to crunch the numbers and break it down to voters or they won't understand.
If the RNC is bound and determined that McCain is their boy, I forecast a wipeout, a slaughter, an annihilation. The Republican Party will cease to exist as we know it.
If that's the price of teaching the GOP and Americans the lesson for not listening to the conservatives, so be it! /S
She was arrogant, impolite, and would not let him speak, one of her sorriest performances. I usually like her, and agree with her positions. He did not appreciate being interrupted and talked over, and I didn't blame him. She was a total ass.
And you know that is not going to happen?
I saw the sarcasm tag but I’m serious what if they are your kids, sorry but I am not willing to risk the lives of my children for anything... especially when its a choice between a tough stand on terror or a Milquetoast, capitulation to our enemies. Keeping this nation safe from the global threat of Radical Islamic Terror will continue to be the number one issue on my docket but thanks to the media’s willingness to help the Liberals ascend to power they have sung America back to sleep on the dangers that gather on our doorstep....
Why don’t they take Oprah’s Billions to pay for a gas subsidy.... This is the slippery slope of liberalism... government control of commodities is a bad, bad, marxist bad idea, something that most likely will happen when Obama is in the WH.... It will destroy the Country .... and what will they still get to blame Bush?
Yeah that down the ticket voting is really doing alot of good how bout them last couple of seats that the Conservative Republicans lost.... How do you answer your flawed logic.
I'm sure Hussein's gaffe's will all return to haunt him. Now is to early to begin the enlightemnment of the American people. This will begin in earnest immediately after the Convention.
ou are correct about Morris.
no they will probably wear what they sew and reap what they sow... lol...
It is looking like 58 to me. It took decades to win back control after that. I really fear what a solidly leftist congress would do.
Funny. I usually can’t stand her.
Nobody gets in the way of Dick’s Hillary Hatrid however.
Five months ago Morris was talking about how there was no way Hillary was going to lose to Rudy in November. His predicitions vary weekly depending on his publishing deadlines.
Care to elaborate on that a little?
Many Republicans are tired of being democrat lites.
We Republicans allowed RINOs to ruin the party. We conservatives can either take back the party or start a NEW conservative party but many will not support RINOs any more.
She is exactly the same as obama, she just hides it better.
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