Posted on 05/21/2008 8:45:36 PM PDT by Red Steel
While Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) hangs in there, locked in a tough race with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), the Republican undercard is facing obliteration in the 2008 general elections for the Senate. Polling suggests that a massacre may be in the offing — and one that’s possibly even greater than the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.
Scott Rasmussen, whose site, www.rasmussenreports.com, follows these races closely, is producing truly hair-raising polling data.
Of the open Republican Senate seats in contention, Democratic victory seems very likely in Virginia (Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner now has 55 percent, while fellow former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore stands at 37) and New Mexico (where Democratic Rep. Tom Udall takes 53 percent to GOP Rep. Steve Pearce’s 37 and 57 percent to Republican Rep. Heather Wilson’s 36). In Colorado, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall has a narrow lead over Republican Bob Schaffer (45-42). Nebraska would seem safely Republican, but a humongous black turnout in Mississippi could elect former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, just as it led to a Democratic congressional victory in a bi-election this month. Score them: two Democrat, one leaning Democrat, one leaning Republican, and one Republican. A net loss of two or three seats.
And then there are the endangered incumbents. Three GOP senators are actually behind their Democratic challengers. Alaska’s Ted Stevens is behind Mark Begich by 47-45. Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan in North Carolina by 48-47. And Jeanne Shaheen is well ahead of John Sununu in New Hampshire, 51-43. Stevens’s legal problems and the likely huge black turnout in North Carolina make all three states lean Democratic at this point.
Even when GOP incumbents lead, they are perilously under 50 percent. In Oregon, as of this writing, Gordon Smith leads Jeff Merkley by only 45-42 and Steve Novick by 47-41. And in Texas, John Cornyn leads Rick Noriega by only 47-43. In addition, Norm Coleman in Minnesota is hanging on by his teeth against Al Franken, 50-43; Susan Collins is only narrowly ahead of Rep. Tom Allen in Maine, 52-42; and in Kansas, Pat Roberts holds only a 52-40 lead over Jim Slattery. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky may also be in trouble.
So, among incumbents, score it three leaning Democratic, two tossups, and three leaning Republican.
Overall, that’s a likely Democratic pickup of five seats, with an eight-seat gain possible, and, in a partisan wipeout, a 12-seat shift.
Mon dieu!
In all likelihood, the filibuster will still remain a theoretical Republican option, but, in practical terms, may be beyond reach, especially if Obama wins the White House.
Driving the GOP’s imperiled Senate situation, or course, is a massive shift in party identification. While the two parties are normally about tied in party ID, the Democrats now enjoy a 44-30 advantage in the latest Fox News poll of April 29.A combination of the Iraq war, gas prices, the credit crisis and a looming recession are dragging down the Republican Party, big time.
So is a president with a 28 percent approval rating. Bush needs to go out and tell America that things are bad, but not that bad. There are solid signs that the economy may not be tanking after all. Unemployment, while rising, is still at historic lows. The credit crisis has not led to a wholesale collapse of the financial industry and the instability appears to be easing. And, in Iraq, we are approaching a more stable situation with lower combat deaths. Bush, who has largely been hunkered down in the White House, needs to hit the trail and move his ratings up into the mid- or high 30s, not an insurmountable challenge.
Will the endangered Republicans recover? Most have prevailed, in the past, by lifting their personal ratings out of possible danger early in the race. But when long-term incumbents find themselves mired in the high 40s or low 50s in vote share, it indicates a massive voter desire for change that is not likely to abate.
In the House, the incredible three Democratic bi-election victories, combined with the retirements of so many Republican incumbents, indicates that the GOP may be facing disaster there as well.
This is not a good year to be a Republican.
I don’t usually agree with Morris, but it doesn’t take a genius to see this. I saw it as soon as the same leadership was elected, and I’m not the only one to do so.
That’s because they all love their Country.. Rush, Hannity Rove etc.
Hilly will do less damage than OBambi.
She is the lesser of the two Commies.
Denver will be interesting.
Yes! For about 7 1/2 years now he's needed to do that...too late now!
Morris isn’t the only one saying this - I heard Gingrich in the last couple of days say the same.
The last I knew the Congress approval rating was lower than Bush’s
I hope they do a transcript of the proceedings that are on TV.
Morris makes a lot of money off of hating the Clintons.
HC’s going nowhere. Morris got uppity when Laura
argued with him because he’s not used to being called on the Carpet.
Of the 2 Marxist/Saul Alinsky/ troglodytes.. Who has the less Liberal Voting record?
Who has the ‘balls’ in this race?
Who is taking a licking and keeps on ticking?
It’s called Operation Chaos for a reason.
It ain’t the Pink Fairy Princess OBambi.
Thankfully Morris is rarely right.
Still republicans in these states where the incumbent need to get involved. Thats one of the many reasons we lost Santorum to that jughead Casey.
I also find it shocking that the republicans are getting the blame for high gas prices. Thats just messed up.
The election is still six months away and in politics two weeks can be like twenty years. There’s a long way to go and those races will tighten up. Besides, when was the last time Morris was right?
Since I’m not voting for Juan McAmnasty, and since I’m not a republican, I am just hoping that the toe-sucker doesn’t follow his usual track record of being wrong..... :)
Said it's Condi Vs. Hillary in ‘08
Said Kerry would defeat Bush
Said Hillary would win the Dem. nomination in a walk in ‘08
Said Rudy Guilliani would be the rep. nominee in ‘08
Dick is not a very good prophet.
My guess is is McCain wins comfortably over Obama with support from independents and moderate Democrats, all the while Republicans lose a few seats in the House and Senate
Look at all the gaffes Obama keeps making. He’s becoming a walking joke. There’s still plenty of time for him to pull a Dukakis or worse, and drag those riding his coat tails down with him.
He’s already made a few giant errors. The media hasn’t played them up yet, but it will be different when the run for the election begins. They won’t be as easy to brush off.
I wouldn’t give Obama the prize just yet.
Obama may be the weakest general election candidate in modern history. I think he will be crushed, and if Republicans would start using his huge negatives in downstream races, it would vastly improve their chances of carrying more seats. Plus, Dick Morris is almost always wrong.
About 2 a week.
The GOP abandoned conservatism. They will reap what they sew.
And it isn't dawn yet. And the Rubicon is beckoning.
you got that right.
what is going to happen when the GOP loses ability to filibuster and the veto (hello president obama)?
do we want to rely on scotus???
Wasn’t it Hillary and Condi before it was Hillary and Rudy?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.