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The Coming Oil Crash: Why Oil Prices Will Drop
Portfolio | January 2008 | John Cassidy

Posted on 12/31/2007 8:57:38 AM PST by Clemenza

http://www.portfolio.com/views/columns/economics/2007/12/17/Why-Oil-Prices-Will-Drop


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Cuba; Editorial; Russia
KEYWORDS: cuba; energy; fracking; garyshilling; iran; keystonexl; lebanon; nigeria; oil; opec; prediction; predictions; predictionthread; ruble; russia; saudiarabia; sudan; venezuela
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To: am452

LOL...you are right. Reagan knew there’s nothing good with a commie government. I’m surprise when Reagan was in office, he didn’t take down Fidel. I don’t care what kind of agreement JFK made with that commie thug or the commie soviets.


101 posted on 12/31/2007 11:41:39 AM PST by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: Dubh_Ghlase

What few realize is that the value of the dollar has fallen dramatically since the 1973 oil shock. The $3/gal you’re paying now is the equivalent of $1/gal gas back then. And, the biggest GOUGER in the fossil fuel market is GOVERNMENTS, state and federal taxes.


102 posted on 12/31/2007 11:45:18 AM PST by timer (n/0=n=nx0)
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To: RightWhale
oil from coal processes, but that effort died when the flood of Middle East oil hit the market

Oh... it didn't 'die'...it was just relegated to Acedemia in the US. Work continued in other countries.. and, is commercially viable in several, including South Africa and China.

Earlier this year, China started up the first of several plants that convert coal to Natural Gas and/or liquids suitable for fuel. Several more of these plants on under construction and scheduled for startup in 2008.

Sadly... we're doing almost nothing on that front here, in the US. Well.. not nothing, but.... nothing significant of which I'm aware.

103 posted on 12/31/2007 11:50:33 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim
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To: Boiling point
I offer something that promises to make me rich. Serious offers only. Contact me if interested. Make me an offer.

I just love over unity energy claims.

104 posted on 12/31/2007 11:53:53 AM PST by rednesss (Fred Thompson - 2008)
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To: Alberta's Child
"Lots of people like a weak dollar — especially if they’re in any business that exports products/services to places like Europe, Japan, etc."

Or are for instance the federal government and have promised a large group of people a fixed amount of Social Security benefits. If you owe $40 trillion and you have devalued the dollar so that now the $40 trillion is only "worth" $20 trillion, then you just got a 50% discount on your promises.

105 posted on 12/31/2007 11:57:12 AM PST by rednesss (Fred Thompson - 2008)
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To: RightWhale
Such diversion is nonexistent. Note that other grain products have also risen in cost.

Wheat production has fallen while corn production has increased. Lower supplies of wheat mean higher grocery prices. Corn being burned for fuel instead of being used for food means higher grocery prices.

106 posted on 12/31/2007 11:57:32 AM PST by Dan Evans
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To: Clemenza

Earlier this year I came across a Saudi government estimate that they needed oil to stay above $40. a barrel in order to pay for all their social welfare programs, government expenses, and make the payments on their loans to the banks of the world. Even though they have been raking in the $ all these years from oil, they have always spent more and are constantly in debt to the banks.

I laughed when the liberals screamed that the war in Iraq was for cheap oil. They were wrong that we went there FOR cheap oil, we went there to keep oil from being cheap!

If you were reading the WSJ for the two years leading up to the war, you might remember that the Saudis were threatening to default on their loans to the world’s major banks. The reason being that the price of oil was falling because Saddam was dumping so much oil on the world market. (Thank the Oil for Food program and all the back door deals.) The dumping had to be stopped or the Saudis would default and cause a world wide banking disaster.

Eliminating Saddam was the expedient thing to do. Killing two birds with one stone, the Saudi’s could ‘encourage’ the whiners and dissents in the kingdom to head into the meat grinder that became Iraq thereby lessening the threat of an overthrow and the price of oil goes up so they could pay their bills. In the first year of the war they accelerated their payments to the banks and actually paid off some of the loans.

My point is that supply and demand is not the only reason the price of oil goes up. How does this figure into all of your calculations?


107 posted on 12/31/2007 12:21:04 PM PST by anonsquared
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To: Hazwaste
It appears to a non-expert like me that this market has been manipulated by forces outside of supply and demand.

Part of the "demand" is futures market speculation. These are contracts to buy or sell gasoline. They can cause wild swings in prices if the speculators perceive that there will be a change in supply or demand.

108 posted on 12/31/2007 12:23:45 PM PST by Dan Evans
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To: Clemenza

Just copy the link on to its own vacant/non used line on your reply with no punction marks at the end or beginning.

If you do this, there can be no HTML in your reply.

When you post it will show up in blue. When the readers, click, it, they will linked to the site.


109 posted on 12/31/2007 12:24:45 PM PST by Grampa Dave ("Ron Paul and his flaming antiwar spam monkeys can Kiss my Ass!!"- Jim Robinson, Sept, 30, 2007)
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To: Clemenza
I've neen waiting for this one.

Back in the 70s, during the Carter fiasco, there was an article in the WSJ entitled, "The Coming Glut in the World Opil Market."

I guess this is the same thing.

110 posted on 12/31/2007 12:27:12 PM PST by HIDEK6
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To: SomeCallMeTim
I've said before... I think the BEST thing Congress could do now is.. guarantee a $50 or $60 FLOOR on oil imports by statute.. with tariffs to kick in if the market drops below that floor. Wouldn't that spur investment??

I've said essentially that same thing for the last couple of years. Most of our enemies are benefiting enormously by high priced oil. I could handle $50 oil for the next 10 years...

111 posted on 12/31/2007 12:32:06 PM PST by AmericaUnited
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To: Clemenza
What you see in terms of price is what there is, in terms of total knowledge at that time.

Price is determined by HUMANS, who can be very emotional and non-rational/fickle, hence various bubbles where prices were way out of whack with fundamentals (knowledge).

112 posted on 12/31/2007 12:36:06 PM PST by AmericaUnited
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To: Alberta's Child

Even in a country like Japan, exports represent a minority of the economy. In the US the benefit of a weak currency is even less. Almost all politicians love a weak currency. I think it’s a mental illness among them.


113 posted on 12/31/2007 12:52:33 PM PST by Moonman62 (The issue of whether cheap labor makes America great should have been settled by the Civil War.)
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To: rottndog

Biofuels are a tiny fraction of the entire fuel market; they’ve only begun to come online; the price of crude has tripled since the late 1990s; biofuels simply have nothing to do with the rise in food costs.


114 posted on 12/31/2007 1:03:55 PM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/____________________Profile updated Sunday, December 30, 2007)
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To: Clemenza

The problem isn’t running out of oil. The problem is that most of the oil is owned by jihadi-funders or leftists.
This country spends billions of dollars to keep the oil flowing, in payoffs to sheiks, in trying in vain to keep the middle east peaceful.
Alternative sources must be developed now! Government has to divert some of the money it wastes in the middle east to research and development.


115 posted on 12/31/2007 1:06:51 PM PST by Leftism is Mentally Deranged
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To: RightWhale
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

116 posted on 12/31/2007 1:08:16 PM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/____________________Profile updated Sunday, December 30, 2007)
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To: Clemenza

Cool Thanks!!!


117 posted on 12/31/2007 1:19:13 PM PST by CPT Clay (Drill ANWR, Personal Accounts NOW , Vote Hunter in the Primary)
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To: FreedomPoster
I’d like to see that pie chart 45 nuke 45 coal and 10 other.

Coal and nuke are best for base electricity. Hydro is maxed out and diesel or Nat gas are best for “peaker” production.

Transportation should be diesel

118 posted on 12/31/2007 1:28:51 PM PST by CPT Clay (Drill ANWR, Personal Accounts NOW , Vote Hunter in the Primary)
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To: Clemenza

The problem that I see, it that we do not use all the energy in a gallon of fuel...if I remember right: there is 19000 BTUs per pound of gasoline, roughly 7 lbs per gallon, that is 133000 BTUs per gallon....one horsepower requires 2545 BTUs....hence one gallon of gasoline if used effectively would have the potential of 133000 btu/2545 btu/hp=52 horsepower....however we are only getting %30 converted into mechanical power, the remaining is waste energy....


119 posted on 12/31/2007 1:29:12 PM PST by thinking
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To: Clemenza

I hear ya. We are thankfully retired so our driving is to the store for food, to a dr. or dental appointment, etc. We can tank up and probably drive on that for three weeks in our Honda Accord.


120 posted on 12/31/2007 1:43:51 PM PST by RetiredArmy (Better prepare, come Nov 08, we have a Marxist Commissar President and Marxist Congress.)
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