Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)

Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

[Plutarch]

Thompson might still be hanging in there in national polls , but those trading money on the probability of Thompson becoming the nominee are increasingly bearish on his chances.

At one point, the probability of Thompson winning the GOP nomination was trading at 35% at Intrade . Over the last month his position has deteriorated, and in the last several days crumbled.

At Intrade Thompson is trading at 8.4%. At Iowa Electronic Markets 7.1%,

The validity of future’s markets is sometimes questioned. No one was questioning them, however, when Fred was trading at 35% .

[prairiebreeze]

He’s picking up alot of steam as we speak. He is gonna pull off the upset of the century.

BWAHAHHAA!! ROFL!!

I gotta hand it to you pissant, your hope does indeed spring eternal.

[RightWhale]

Good list. Obeys the marketing maxim of seven plus, or minus two. Whoever wrote it knows something about writing for effect.

[Harrius Magnus]

“Let me know when Intrade elects a POTUS, would ya’?”

My experience is that they are extremely accurate. People leave their politics behind when betting.

Overall, Fred peaked about at his announcement and has been downhill since. I gave money to his campaign when it was at about 20 and substantially above Mitt. Oh well, I also gave to Irey and Santorium.

[Plutarch]

Hey, I have been doing both Romniacs and Fred Heads a favor by exposing the Huckster as of late.

Count me in. The Huckster needs some exposing. What is more, he hardly has any fans here, so you don't have to enrage the majority of Freepers as is the case with Thompson.

So, if I post something negative about Huckster, it is to assist Pissant in his quixotic Hunter quest.

[Spiff]

Check my FReeper profile page. There you will see composites of early state polls and national polls. Romney leads in early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Romney is within the Margin of Error of Fred Thompson on Rasmussen's daily national poll.

Romney is just on the edge of the MoE behind Thompson on an averaged composite of the last 5 national polls taken.

Giuliani 24%
Thompson 17.2%
Romney 13.2%
McCain 12.6%
Huckabee 11.2%

Note: 4 Rasmussen Daily Tracking Polls and 1 Quinnipiac Poll national polls used for the above averages.
Margin of Error for Rasmussen is +/- 4 points
Margin of Error for Quinnipiac is +/- 3.6 points.

The RCP average the you quote goes all the way back to 10/14 and is an average over 2.5 weeks. That's not a good way to deterimine where the candidates actually stand as of today.

More important than national polls are the state polls. Especially the early states. Romney is leading in nearly all of those. Remember that the primary is not a national primary run on a single day. It is a series of state primaries.

[edcoil]

you have any idea what the press would do with a real conservative in the white house?

[visualops]

for no apparent reason.

Oh, there's a reason alright. They fear the Fred.

[Plutarch]

Summary from Intrade:

Republican Nomination Market

This weeks trading has seen Rudy Giuliani’s comfortable grip on the market loosen. The market leader saw his value slip from 44.4 to 41.1 over the past seven days, a loss of 3.3 points. This is his largest single week loss since he slipped 3.9 points back in May ’07 and lost his position as market leader to John McCain.

Mitt Romney responded to his rival's weakness with a nice gain. His current price of 27.0 is a 2.7 point boost from last weeks value of 24.3 and is a record high for the former Governor of Massachusetts. He now sits 14.1 points behind Giuliani after trailing by 20.1 points seven days ago. 

Fred Thompson continues to trade at new lows, although this weeks losses are not as severe as those suffered in the previous fortnight. He is currently trading at 9.9, which is down 1.7 points from last weeks value of 11.6. 

John McCain now trails Thompson by just 2.8 points, although the Senator from Arizona did suffer a minor loss this week himself. His current price of 7.1 is down 0.2 points from last weeks value of 7.3. 

[ejonesie22]

Oh no Fred is doomed...

Does that help?

[ejonesie22]

Oh no Fred is doomed...

Does that help drive it lower so we can buy in as low as possible...

[skeeter]

You have any idea what the press would do with a real conservative in the white house?

No doubt pop a vein, like during the 80s.

As long as said conservative can communicate effectively it won't matter what they do.

[Fresh Wind]

Looks like the betters are buying into the MSM spin. That’s never a good idea.

[SuziQ]

Not surprising, since he hasn't been spending inordinate amounts of time or money in Iowa.

I'd be curious to know the Intrade info on George W. Bush about this time in the last election.

[ejonesie22]

He gets it, that’s true. Sad thing is after 26 years in the house I wounder who is going to get him...

[ejonesie22]

A fool and their money...

[Kevmo]

Thanks for posting this. I’m starting to become a fan of these markets.

[Kevmo]

Where’s the beef?
***I was wondering when we would see that expression. Cue the Clara Peller photos. Wendy’s Hamburgers, yum.

[SierraWasp]

Hey! Who is that RROF_NOM in pink that dropped like a rock in the middle of the graph? Is that Paul?

[txhurl]

The email intrade sent me today has AlGore up 50% from a week ago to be nominee, and up 32% to be prez so that LA Times piece about lezzie Hillary must be about to be published. The DLC/DNC's Hillary internals are scaring them, and now they're gonna drag Gore into the race.

Lessee, what does the SCOTUS look like this time around?

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

Is this the “scandal” brewing?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919228/posts