“Let me know when Intrade elects a POTUS, would ya’?”
My experience is that they are extremely accurate. People leave their politics behind when betting.
Overall, Fred peaked about at his announcement and has been downhill since. I gave money to his campaign when it was at about 20 and substantially above Mitt. Oh well, I also gave to Irey and Santorium.
It can be gamed, like anything else. I wouldn’t put it past a Soros type to do just that.